At a security conference in Tallinn, NATO's deputy commander for Europe warned that Vladimir Putin is growing dangerously reckless as his war in Ukraine drags on, turning to a shadowy campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks, and covert disruption across European soil to fracture Western resolve. The incidents — more than 210 tracked by September, up from 59 in March — reflect not a position of strength but of a leader under pressure, searching for leverage where conventional warfare has grown costly. History has seen this pattern before: when direct confrontation proves too costly, power seeks the
NATO warns Putin growing reckless as covert attacks on West escalate
a rat in the corner, escalating activity across Europe
Mark
So Putin is testing NATO with these covert attacks—but how does that actually work? If NATO can't prove who's behind them, how does he benefit?
Mimi
He benefits precisely because attribution is so hard. If a drone crashes in Poland or a factory burns in Estonia, Russia can deny involvement. But the cumulative effect is real—it creates uncertainty, it forces NATO to spend resources investigating, and it plants doubt about whether the alliance can actually protect its members.
Luke
But here's what I want to know: are these attacks actually increasing because Putin decided to escalate, or are we just better at detecting them now? The source says incidents went from 59 to 210, but that's a huge jump. Is that a real change in Russian behavior or a change in how we're counting?
Mimi
That's a fair question. The source doesn't explicitly say whether the increase reflects new Russian activity or improved NATO detection. What we do know is that NATO officials are treating it as a real escalation—they're warning about it, they're concerned about it.
Mark
And the other thing that strikes me is the disagreement among NATO members. Some people like Tusk are very worried. Others like the U.S. ambassador are saying Putin doesn't want direct conflict. How do you square that?
Mimi
You don't, really. There's genuine uncertainty about Putin's intentions. He could be testing NATO's resolve, or he could be conducting a limited campaign that falls short of direct confrontation. Both things could be true—he's being aggressive in the gray zone without wanting full-scale war.
Luke
The source also mentions that many saboteurs don't even know they're working for Russia. That's a crucial detail because it means even if NATO catches someone, they might not be able to prove a Russian connection. That's a real asymmetry.
Mimi
Exactly. It's a form of warfare that's almost impossible to prove and therefore almost impossible to respond to without risking overreaction. That's why Stringer keeps warning against overreacting—because that's what Putin wants.
Mark
So what happens next? Do these attacks keep escalating?
Mimi
Baltic leaders expect them to intensify through winter, especially as Ukraine continues to damage Russian energy infrastructure. But they also think any real diplomatic resolution won't happen until spring, when the military situation might become clearer.
Luke
One more thing: the source says Russia has suffered more than half a million dead in Ukraine, and Ukraine is hitting Russian energy infrastructure hard. So why is Putin still escalating in Europe instead of just trying to end the war?
Mimi
Because ending the war on terms he can accept requires breaking Western support for Ukraine. If he can fracture NATO or exhaust Western resolve, he might be able to negotiate from a stronger position. The covert campaign is part of that larger strategy.
Der Puls
- Russian covert operations across Europe have surged more than threefold in six months, spanning arson, drone incursions, cyberattacks, and infrastructure sabotage from Germany to Bulgaria.
- The campaign is deliberately designed to be unprovable — saboteurs recruited online often don't know they're working for Moscow, and GPS jamming gives Russia plausible deniability when drones stray into NATO airspace.
- NATO leadership warns that Putin is escalating not from a position of strength but as a response to Ukrainian battlefield pressure, with over half a million Russian casualties and energy infrastructure crippled across 80 of 83 Russian regions.
- European leaders are divided — Poland and France are hardening defenses, while the U.S. ambassador to NATO and Latvia's president caution against overreading Putin's intentions or provoking an unnecessary escalation.
- Baltic leaders expect attacks on critical infrastructure to intensify through winter, with diplomatic progress unlikely before spring, leaving NATO to navigate a grinding, deniable pressure campaign designed to splinter its unity.
At a security conference in Tallinn, NATO's deputy commander for Europe warned that Vladimir Putin is growing dangerously reckless as his war in Ukraine drags on, turning to a shadowy campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks, and covert disruption across European soil to fracture Western resolve. The incidents — more than 210 tracked by September, up from 59 in March — reflect not a position of strength but of a leader under pressure, searching for leverage where conventional warfare has grown costly. History has seen this pattern before: when direct confrontation proves too costly, power seeks the ambiguous, the deniable, the slow erosion of an opponent's will.
At a security conference in Tallinn this week, NATO's deputy commander for Europe, Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, delivered a blunt warning: Vladimir Putin is becoming increasingly reckless and risk-accepting as his war in Ukraine grinds on. The assessment came alongside documented evidence of a sharp escalation in covert Russian operations — from 59 tracked incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 by September — spanning sabotage, cyberattacks, drone incursions, and espionage across European territory.
The incidents are striking in both scale and audacity. German officials uncovered a Russian plot at Leipzig airport involving an explosive-laden drone near a Ukrainian aircraft. British authorities disrupted an operation targeting a drone factory outside London. An Estonian defense company burned down; a Bulgarian weapons facility exploded. What makes the campaign so difficult to counter is its deliberate ambiguity — many of those recruited by Russian intelligence online have no idea they are working for Moscow, and GPS jamming allows Russia to send drones into NATO airspace while maintaining plausible deniability. When asked directly by the Associated Press whether Russia was waging a covert campaign against the West, Putin replied simply: "Name one proven fact."
NATO leadership argues the intent is clear regardless. With Ukrainian strikes crippling Russian energy infrastructure and battlefield casualties exceeding half a million, Putin is searching for leverage — testing the alliance with attacks that are hard to prove, hoping to provoke an overreaction that fractures Western unity. Stringer warned that NATO must navigate this "febrile environment" carefully, since an overreaction is precisely what Putin wants.
European leaders remain divided on how to respond. Poland and France are hardening defenses against drone and cyberattacks, while the U.S. ambassador to NATO and Latvia's president counsel restraint, noting no observable military buildup near NATO borders. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal offered a telling metaphor: Putin is "a rat in the corner," escalating covert pressure because he is losing ground elsewhere. Both Michal and Stringer agreed that continued support for Ukraine remains the most effective deterrent. As winter approaches, Baltic leaders expect the covert campaign to intensify — a slow, deniable erosion of resolve that will test NATO's cohesion for months to come.
At a security conference in Tallinn this week, NATO's deputy commander for Europe delivered a stark assessment: Vladimir Putin is growing reckless. Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer told reporters that the Russian president is becoming "increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting" as his war in Ukraine stretches on and as he searches for ways to splinter the Western alliance. The warning arrives amid a documented surge in covert Russian operations across Europe—sabotage, cyberattacks, drone incursions, and espionage campaigns that have escalated sharply over the past eighteen months.
The scale of this hidden campaign is striking. In March 2025, NATO tracked 59 incidents of Russian disruption across European territory. By September, that number had climbed to more than 210, ranging from simple vandalism and propaganda to arson, cyberattacks, and infrastructure sabotage. In August, German officials said they uncovered a Russian plot at Leipzig airport involving a drone laden with explosives positioned near a Ukrainian aircraft. British authorities disrupted a separate Russian operation targeting a drone factory outside London. An Estonian defense company burned down; a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded. The incidents pile up faster than attribution can confirm them.
What makes this campaign difficult to counter is its deliberate ambiguity. Many of the saboteurs recruited by Russian intelligence services online have no idea they are working for Moscow. The line between accidental and intentional has become razor-thin. Russian GPS jamming and electronic warfare can send drones off course into NATO airspace, creating plausible deniability. When the Associated Press asked Putin in May whether Russia was waging a covert campaign against the West, he responded simply: "Name one proven fact." The challenge is real. Attribution is hard. Proof is harder still.
Yet the intent appears clear to NATO leadership. Stringer and others argue that Putin is escalating these operations not because NATO has failed to stop them, but as a direct consequence of Western support for Ukraine. With his military campaign in Ukraine grinding forward at enormous cost—more than half a million Russian dead—and with Ukrainian strikes crippling Russian energy infrastructure across 80 of 83 regions, Putin is searching for leverage elsewhere. He is trying to break the alliance's resolve by testing it with attacks that are difficult to prove, hoping to provoke an overreaction that might fracture NATO unity.
European leaders are divided on how to respond. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned last week that Russia might deliberately strike NATO nations with drones or missiles while claiming they were accidents. French President Emmanuel Macron has ordered his government to prepare defenses against drone and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. But other voices counsel restraint. The U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, dismissed concerns that Putin is testing the alliance, saying the Russian president does not want direct conflict with NATO. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics, whose country borders Russia, noted that there is no observable military buildup near his nation's frontier and that the prospect of direct attack remains unlikely.
Stringer warned that NATO members must be aware of what he called the "febrile environment" and must be careful in their response, because Putin would welcome an overreaction that could divide the alliance. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte struck a different note, telling the AP that Putin "knows that the United States and Europe are totally intertwined" and that if he "does anything silly, he knows our reaction will be tough." The message was firm but measured—strength without provocation.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal offered a vivid metaphor: Putin is like "a rat in the corner," escalating activity across Europe in an attempt to break Western support for Kyiv at a moment when Moscow is under pressure. Both Michal and Stringer suggested that the best deterrent is continued backing for Ukraine. As winter approaches, Baltic leaders expect attacks on infrastructure to intensify over the coming months. Diplomatic progress, they argue, is unlikely until spring. Until then, the covert campaign will continue—a grinding, deniable pressure campaign designed to test NATO's unity and fracture its commitment to Ukraine.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Putin is becoming increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting as his war in Ukraine drags on and he seeks to divide Western allies— Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, NATO deputy commander for Europe
The best way to deter him is to back Ukraine— Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal
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