Merz faces political humiliation whatever Sunday's result in eastern Germany

Friedrich Merz arrived at this moment already weakened. Sixteen months into his chancellorship, he holds the distinction of being Germany's least popular leader in modern memory. Now, as voters in Saxony-Anhalt prepare to cast ballots on Sunday, he faces a political trap with no exit.

The far-right Alternative for Germany, the AfD, is expected to win decisively in the eastern state, according to pre-election polling. Merz's Christian Democratic Union will finish second. This alone represents a humiliation—the clearest possible measure of how thoroughly the far right has displaced mainstream conservatism across broad regions of the country. But the real damage depends on what happens next.

If the AfD secures enough votes to govern alone, Merz will occupy a grim historical position: the national leader who presided over the far right's first real grasp at state power since World War II. Some CDU politicians in Saxony-Anhalt see a silver lining in this scenario. An AfD government, they reason, will likely stumble once in office, demystifying the party and creating space for a conservative comeback. Alexander Räuscher, a CDU lawmaker, put it bluntly: the AfD's lead candidate will be finished the moment he becomes premier, unable to deliver on his promises. But this calculation carries enormous risk. A decisive AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt would likely trigger a cascade of defeats in other eastern states and Berlin, where the party is also polling strongly. Four more state elections loom next year. Each loss would intensify pressure on Merz within his own party, where some conservatives are already questioning whether his refusal to cooperate with the AfD—the so-called firewall—has only strengthened the far right by forcing them into coalitions with left-wing parties.

The alternative outcome may be worse. If the AfD falls short of an outright majority, Merz's CDU will face a series of impossible choices. The party has ruled out formal cooperation with both the AfD and the far-left Die Linke party. Yet the math of the election appears to leave no other path. The CDU would likely form a minority government with the center-left Social Democrats and possibly the Greens, but would remain dependent on Die Linke's support to pass legislation and elect its premier. This arrangement has precedent in other eastern states, where Die Linke has tolerated CDU-led governments. But internal resistance within the CDU is hardening. A local party group has already rejected any coalition that survives only through Die Linke's "goodwill, toleration or explicit consent." These conservatives argue that governing alongside left-wing parties hands the AfD a powerful weapon—the ability to portray the CDU as leftists in disguise.

Merz has offered little clarity on how he intends to navigate either scenario. When asked about post-election strategy in a television interview, he deflected, saying he would not speculate about what comes after Sunday. Yet his position has grown visibly precarious. In rare campaign appearances in eastern Germany, he has been booed by angry voters. During a visit this week, crowds shouted "Pinocchio" and "warmongerer" at him, forcing cancellation of a planned press statement. Conservative politicians in the region have made clear they do not want him on the campaign trail.

Behind closed doors, CDU politicians are discussing something remarkable by German standards: replacing the chancellor entirely. Julian Schache, a CDU politician from Magdeburg, acknowledged the possibility. "Given the dissatisfaction, the poll numbers and the fact that there are additional elections coming up next year, the pressure for fundamental change will naturally increase," he said. "I could certainly imagine that some will push for Friedrich Merz to step down."

The AfD has also signaled it may challenge the legitimacy of Sunday's result. The party has issued press releases questioning mail-in ballots, and its lead candidate has voiced similar doubts on social media. Whether this amounts to preparation for contesting an unfavorable outcome remains unclear.

What is clear is that Merz enters this election without a coherent strategy for the fallout. The results on Sunday will set in motion a chain of events that could ultimately end his chancellorship. Two more state elections follow on September 20. The question is no longer whether Merz faces humiliation, but which form of it will prove most damaging to his hold on power.