Seven out of ten Brazilians are either dissatisfied or ambivalent
In the long arc of democratic governance, approval ratings are less a verdict than a mirror — and the one held up to President Lula in mid-May 2026 reflects a nation more dissatisfied than supportive, with elections less than five months away. A Datafolha poll, Brazil's most trusted measure of public sentiment, shows only 30 percent of Brazilians view his government favorably, while 39 percent judge it poorly. The gap is not merely statistical; it is a signal that the coalition which returned Lula to power is showing fractures, most visibly in states like Amazonas, where disapproval reaches 55 percent. Whether this represents a turning tide or a recoverable moment is the question that will define Brazil's political season ahead.
- With a nine-point gap between negative and positive assessments, Lula enters the final stretch before elections in a position of measurable political vulnerability.
- In Amazonas alone, 55 percent of voters disapprove of his performance — a regional fault line that exposes the uneven terrain of his national support.
- Seven in ten Brazilians are either actively dissatisfied or ambivalent about the country's direction, leaving the government with little margin for further erosion.
- The administration now faces the urgent task of diagnosing whether the discontent is rooted in economic grievance, policy fatigue, or something harder to reverse.
- As campaign season intensifies, these numbers will be weaponized by opponents and contested by allies, making the polling data itself a battleground of political narrative.
The numbers arrived on a Saturday in mid-May, and they were not easy reading for Brazil's government. A new Datafolha poll placed President Lula's approval at just 30 percent — uncomfortably low with a national election fewer than five months away. More telling still, 39 percent of Brazilians now rate his administration as poor or very poor, leaving a nine-point gap that cannot be explained away as margin of error.
Datafolha measures sentiment on two ends of a spectrum: those who call the government excellent or good, and those who call it bad or terrible. The middle ground — neither satisfied nor opposed — absorbs the remainder. For a sitting president approaching a decisive electoral moment, the proportions suggest a government struggling to hold its footing.
The decline is not evenly distributed. In Amazonas, disapproval climbs to 55 percent against only 41 percent approval, hinting at deeper fractures in the coalition that brought Lula back to power. Brazil's size and diversity mean that regional sentiment carries real weight — state-level disaffection can ripple outward into national outcomes.
What the data cannot answer is why: whether the dissatisfaction flows from economic conditions, specific policy choices, or a broader fatigue with the administration. What it does confirm is that, at this moment, a significant majority of Brazilian voters view their government more negatively than positively — a snapshot that will shape the months of campaigning still to come.
The numbers arrived on a Saturday in mid-May, and they told a story Brazil's government could not ignore. A Datafolha poll released this week showed President Lula's approval rating at 30 percent—a figure that sits uncomfortably low with an election less than five months away. More troubling still: 39 percent of Brazilians now view his government negatively, rating it as either poor or very poor. The gap between those who see his administration favorably and those who do not has widened into something that cannot be dismissed as statistical noise.
Datafolha, Brazil's most widely cited polling firm, measures government approval across two dimensions. On the positive side, 30 percent of respondents describe Lula's government as excellent or good. The negative assessment—those calling it bad or terrible—stands at 39 percent. The remaining respondents fall into a middle category, neither clearly satisfied nor clearly opposed. For a sitting president less than half a year from a national election, these proportions suggest a government struggling to maintain its political footing.
The decline is not uniform across the country. In the state of Amazonas, the picture grows darker still. There, 55 percent of voters disapprove of Lula's performance, while only 41 percent approve. This regional variation hints at deeper fractures in the coalition that brought him to office. Some parts of Brazil have turned decisively against his administration, while others may still offer pockets of support. The uneven geography of approval matters enormously in a country as large and diverse as Brazil, where state-level politics can shape national outcomes.
These numbers arrive at a moment of particular sensitivity for the government. With elections approaching in the autumn, approval ratings function as a kind of political weather report—they signal whether the wind is at a candidate's back or in their face. A 30 percent approval rating suggests headwinds. It means that seven out of ten Brazilians are either actively dissatisfied or ambivalent about the direction of the country under Lula's leadership. Whether that dissatisfaction stems from economic conditions, policy disagreements, or broader fatigue with his administration remains a question the polling itself does not answer.
What the data does show is a government that has lost ground among the public it governs. The gap between negative and positive assessments—nine percentage points in Lula's disfavor—represents a meaningful shift in public sentiment. In the months ahead, as campaigns intensify and candidates make their cases to voters, these approval numbers will likely shape the conversation. They will be cited as evidence of either a government in crisis or a president whose popularity has room to recover. For now, they stand as a snapshot of a moment when Brazilian voters, by a significant margin, view their government more negatively than positively.
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
What does a 30 percent approval rating actually mean for Lula at this stage of his presidency?
It means roughly three in ten Brazilians think he's doing well. The other seven are either unhappy or haven't made up their minds. That's a precarious position when you're heading into an election.
Is this a sudden drop, or has his popularity been sliding for a while?
The polling doesn't tell us the trajectory—just where things stand right now. But the fact that negative assessments outnumber positive ones by nine points suggests something has shifted in how people feel.
Why does Amazonas look so different from the national picture?
Regional economies and local politics matter enormously in Brazil. What's happening in the Amazon—whether it's environmental policy, economic conditions, or something else—clearly isn't resonating the same way it does elsewhere.
Can a president recover from these numbers in five months?
It's possible, but it's uphill. Approval ratings tend to be sticky. You'd need something significant to change the conversation—either a major policy win or a shift in how people experience their daily lives.
Who's likely to benefit if Lula's numbers stay this low?
That depends on who's running against him and what they're offering. Low approval for an incumbent usually helps challengers, but only if voters see them as a credible alternative.