Brazil's Political Forces Rally Behind Lula and Bolsonaro Ahead of Runoff

Four days after Brazil's first round of voting, both camps were moving with urgency. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 76-year-old leftist, had won with 48.43 percent of the vote. Jair Bolsonaro, the 67-year-old incumbent, finished second with 43.20 percent—a gap of 6.18 million votes. But the arithmetic of a runoff is never simple. More than 38 million Brazilians had voted blank, cast invalid ballots, or stayed home entirely. Both candidates knew those voters, along with the nearly 10 million who had chosen other candidates in the first round, would determine the October 30 contest.

Lula moved quickly to consolidate the center. Simone Tebet, a center-right senator who finished third with 3.9 percent of the vote, announced her support. So did Ciro Gomes, a center-left politician who came fourth with 3.3 percent. Together they represented 8.5 million voters. Gomes's endorsement came with visible reluctance. "I regret that Brazilian democracy has been reduced to the point where citizens are left with two options, both of which I find unsatisfactory," he said, notably avoiding even mentioning Lula's name—a sign, analysts noted, that his backing might not translate into the unified support Lula needed. Tebet was more direct: she said she would vote for Lula because she recognized his commitment to democracy and the Constitution, qualities she said she did not see in the sitting president.

Other prominent figures joined Lula's coalition. José Serra, a senator from the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, declared support. So did Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the former president who had led that same party from 1995 to 2003. By the time the dust settled, 14 of Brazil's 32 political parties had lined up behind Lula's Workers' Party.

Bolsonaro's strategy was different. He focused on the machinery of state power, securing backing from the governors of Brazil's three most populous states. Rodrigo Garcia in São Paulo, Romeu Zema in Minas Gerais, and Cláudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro all pledged their support. Zema and Castro had just been reelected in the first round, giving them fresh mandates and real leverage. Zema's endorsement was particularly significant: Minas Gerais, with the second-largest voting bloc in the country after São Paulo, had backed every winning presidential candidate since Brazil's return to democracy. "Now that Brazil needs to move forward, I believe much more in President Bolsonaro's proposal than in his opponent's," Zema said. Bolsonaro also won backing from Ibaneis Rocha, the governor of the Federal District, and Ratinho Junior of Paraná.

Sérgio Moro, the former judge and newly elected senator, announced his support for Bolsonaro. The move carried historical weight: as a magistrate, Moro had imprisoned Lula during the Lava Jato corruption investigation. He later served as Bolsonaro's justice minister before resigning and accusing the president of interfering with the Federal Police. Now he was choosing sides again. "Against the Workers' Party's project for power, I declare my support for Bolsonaro in the runoff," he said.

The party math, however, told a more complex story. While 14 parties backed Lula, only four had committed to Bolsonaro. But those four parties held more congressional seats and formed part of the "centrao," an influential bloc of conservative lawmakers who wielded outsized power in Congress. Fourteen other parties remained neutral or undecided, keeping their options open.

The first poll released after the first round showed Lula at 51 percent and Bolsonaro at 43 percent for the runoff—a narrower margin than many had expected weeks earlier. The initial surveys had accurately predicted Lula's first-round performance but had significantly underestimated Bolsonaro, who exceeded his polling by seven percentage points. As the two camps mobilized their supporters and negotiated with the uncommitted middle, Brazil was heading toward what promised to be the most polarized election in its democratic history.