Each August, Kenya's skies negotiate between the dry and the drenched, and this week is no different. The Meteorological Department has mapped the nation into zones of heat, chill, and scattered rain — a reminder that a single country can hold many weathers at once. While most regions settle into dry stillness, the western counties and Rift Valley will receive intermittent showers, and the highlands will face cold nights even as the nation's mean temperatures trend warmer than history would suggest.
Kenya expects dry weather this week with scattered rains in Western regions
Temperatures will generally remain above historical norms even as cold mornings arrive
Mark
Why does Kenya's weather split so cleanly between wet and dry regions?
Mimi
It's the geography. The highlands and western slopes catch moisture moving in from the Atlantic and Indian Ocean systems. The interior and northern regions sit in rain shadows—they're naturally drier. August just amplifies what's already built into the landscape.
Mark
The forecast mentions temperatures warmer than average despite August being known for cold mornings. How does that work?
Mimi
The average is calculated across the whole month and the whole country. Yes, the highlands will have genuinely cold nights—below 10 degrees. But the northern regions will be scorching, and those hot days pull the overall mean upward. It's a tale of extremes balancing out.
Mark
Should people in the arid north be concerned about the heat exceeding 30 degrees?
Mimi
It's not unusual for those regions, but it's worth taking seriously. Livestock and water access become critical. The forecast is telling people to prepare—that's the real message.
Mark
What about that line about isolated heavy rainfall not being ruled out?
Mimi
That's the meteorologist's hedge. They're saying the month will be dry overall, but weather doesn't always cooperate with monthly averages. A single storm system could dump significant rain in one county while leaving neighbors bone dry. It's happened before.
Mark
Who needs to pay closest attention to this forecast?
Mimi
Farmers in the western counties watching for rain timing. Herders in the north managing heat stress on animals. And anyone in the highlands—they need to prepare for those sharp temperature swings between day and night.
The Pulse
- A sharp east-west divide is emerging this week, with western counties and the Rift Valley bracing for scattered rainfall while the rest of Kenya stays largely dry.
- Temperature extremes are pulling in opposite directions simultaneously — the arid north bakes above 30°C while highland nights plunge below 10°C.
- Despite August's reputation as a cool month, meteorologists warn that mean temperatures nationwide will run above long-term historical averages.
- The threat of isolated heavy downpours lingers even where total monthly rainfall is forecast to be near or below average, keeping residents on alert.
- Authorities are urging Kenyans across all regions to monitor forecasts closely as dramatic swings in both heat and precipitation remain possible through month's end.
Each August, Kenya's skies negotiate between the dry and the drenched, and this week is no different. The Meteorological Department has mapped the nation into zones of heat, chill, and scattered rain — a reminder that a single country can hold many weathers at once. While most regions settle into dry stillness, the western counties and Rift Valley will receive intermittent showers, and the highlands will face cold nights even as the nation's mean temperatures trend warmer than history would suggest.
Kenya's Meteorological Department released its weekly forecast on Monday, drawing a clear line between the country's dry east and its wetter west. Through August 10, most of the nation will experience dry conditions, while a rainfall belt stretching from border counties through the Rift Valley — including Bungoma, Kakamega, Kericho, Nakuru, and Nakuru — will see intermittent showers. A broader band of central counties, from Embu and Kiambu down to Kajiado and Taita Taveta, can expect cool, cloudy spells without necessarily seeing rain.
Temperature contrasts will be just as striking as moisture patterns. The arid north and northeast — Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, and their neighbors — will endure daytime highs above 30°C. Meanwhile, the Central Highlands and parts of the Rift Valley will see nights fall below 10°C, with Nairobi and surrounding highland counties experiencing the cold mornings that define the season.
Looking at August as a whole, the department projects predominantly sunny and dry conditions across most of Kenya, with daytime temperatures ranging from 16°C to 37°C and nights swinging between 5°C and 26°C depending on location. Western counties and the coastal belt are forecast to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, while the driest zones — Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, and Garissa — will see minimal precipitation.
Senior meteorologist Kennedy Thiong'o noted that despite the cold mornings arriving in the highlands, mean temperatures nationwide are expected to remain above historical norms — a detail that cuts against August's reputation for cool relief. One further caution tempers the dry outlook: isolated heavy downpours cannot be ruled out in select counties, meaning that even in a predominantly dry month, sudden intense rainfall remains possible. Residents are advised to stay alert to updates as conditions evolve.
Kenya's weather picture for the coming week splits the country into distinct zones. The Meteorological Department released its latest forecast on Monday, mapping out what residents across the nation should expect between now and August 10. For most of the country, the story is straightforward: dry conditions will dominate. But in the western half of the nation—a band running from the border counties through the Rift Valley—rain will arrive in scattered bursts.
The rainfall belt includes Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kakamega, and Kericho in the west, extending eastward through Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nyandarua, Nyeri, and Murang'a. These counties should prepare for intermittent showers. Alongside the rain, a broader swath of the country—stretching from Embu and Kiambu in the central region through Laikipia, Meru, and down to Machakos, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta—will experience cool, cloudy spells, though not necessarily with precipitation.
Temperature extremes will define the week as much as moisture patterns. In the arid north and northeast—Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit, and Turkana—daytime highs will soar above 30 degrees Celsius, bringing intense heat to already hot regions. The opposite extreme awaits the Central Highlands and parts of the Rift Valley. Residents in Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta should brace for nights when temperatures drop below 10 degrees Celsius. Nairobi and its neighboring highland counties will experience the familiar cold August mornings that characterize this season.
When the department looked ahead to the full month, the picture becomes more nuanced. August overall will be predominantly sunny and dry across most of Kenya, but the Central Highlands will continue to see cool, cloudy conditions with light rain persisting. Daytime temperatures across the country are forecast to range from 16 degrees to 37 degrees Celsius, while nights will swing between 5 and 26 degrees depending on location. The hottest days will occur in the north and northeast; the coldest nights in the highlands around Nairobi and Nyandarua.
What stands out in the monthly outlook is that despite August's reputation for cool spells in certain regions, mean temperatures nationwide are expected to run warmer than the long-term average. Kennedy Thiong'o, deputy director and senior meteorologist at the department, emphasized this point: temperatures will generally remain above historical norms even as cold mornings arrive in the highlands.
Rainfall patterns for the month show considerable variation. Western counties including Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kakamega, Kisumu, Kericho, and the coastal belt of Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, and Kwale are forecast to receive near-average to below-average rainfall. The arid regions—Turkana, Samburu, parts of West Pokot, and Baringo—will see below-average precipitation. The driest zones, expected to remain largely sunny with minimal rain, include Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa, and parts of Taita Taveta and Narok.
One caveat tempers the overall dry forecast: isolated heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in select counties during August, even though the month's total precipitation is projected to be near or below average. This means that while most of the country will experience the dry, cool conditions typical of August, a few locations could see sudden, intense downpours. Residents across Kenya should monitor updates as the month unfolds, particularly those in areas where temperature swings will be most dramatic or where isolated storms remain possible.
Notable Quotes
Mean temperatures are predicted to be warmer than average throughout the country, signalling that despite the cool spells associated with August, temperatures will generally remain above the long-term average.— Kennedy Thiong'o, deputy director and senior meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department
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