The electorate is making up its mind with two weeks remaining
Con dos semanas antes de las elecciones presidenciales de Perú en 2026, el electorado comienza a definirse en torno a dos figuras que concentran sus esperanzas y sus dudas: Keiko Fujimori, con un crecimiento sostenido que la lleva al 13%, y Rafael López Aliaga, estabilizado en 11.7%, en un empate técnico que refleja tanto la vitalidad como la fragmentación de la democracia peruana. Detrás de ellos, un campo disperso de candidatos acumula cerca de un tercio del electorado, mientras la indecisión —ese barómetro silencioso de la confianza ciudadana— cae de manera significativa, señal de que el país está, lentamente, tomando una decisión colectiva.
- Fujimori ha escalado cinco puntos porcentuales desde enero, convirtiendo una acumulación gradual en el liderazgo más sólido de la carrera, aunque aún insuficiente para garantizar una victoria en primera vuelta.
- López Aliaga ha tocado techo: su apoyo se ha estancado en las últimas semanas sin señales claras de expansión, lo que convierte su base en un piso firme pero también en un límite visible.
- El campo de candidatos medianos —Álvarez, López Chao, Nieto y Sánchez— suma casi 30% del electorado y mantiene viva la posibilidad de una segunda vuelta, fragmentando el escenario y complicando cualquier proyección definitiva.
- La indecisión cayó del 35.8% al 23.9% en pocas semanas, lo que indica que el electorado está consolidando preferencias a medida que se acerca el día de la votación.
- Cuando se calculan solo los votos válidos —el método que usará el sistema electoral peruano— la ventaja de Fujimori sobre López Aliaga se amplía de 1.3 a 5.2 puntos porcentuales, sugiriendo que su liderazgo real podría ser más robusto de lo que muestran las cifras brutas.
A dos semanas de las elecciones presidenciales de 2026, Perú enfrenta una carrera que se ha ido estrechando hasta convertirse en un duelo técnico entre Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) y Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular). La última encuesta de Datum Internacional, realizada entre el 25 y el 27 de marzo con dos mil personas en zonas urbanas y rurales, ubica a Fujimori en 13% y a López Aliaga en 11.7%, dentro del margen de error de ±2.2 puntos.
El recorrido de Fujimori ha sido de acumulación metódica: partió en enero con 8% y ganó cinco puntos en tres meses, una tendencia estadísticamente significativa aunque discreta en el día a día. López Aliaga, en cambio, parece haber alcanzado un techo: su apoyo no ha mostrado movimiento relevante en las últimas semanas. Detrás de ellos, Carlos Álvarez (6.9%), Alfonso López Chao (6.1%), Jorge Nieto (5.9%) y Roberto Sánchez (4.9%) conforman un bloque que, sumado, representa cerca del 30% del electorado y mantiene abierta la posibilidad de una segunda vuelta.
Uno de los datos más reveladores de la encuesta es el desplome de la indecisión: el porcentaje de indecisos cayó del 35.8% al 23.9%, y el rubro de «no sabe» bajó de 18.1% a 11.7%. El electorado peruano está, en otras palabras, tomando partido.
La simulación de voto de Datum añade otra capa de lectura: cuando se depuran los votos en blanco y nulos —tal como lo hará el sistema electoral oficial— Fujimori sube al 18.5% y López Aliaga al 13.3%, ampliando la brecha entre ambos de poco más de un punto a más de cinco. Eso sugiere que el liderazgo de Fujimori podría ser más sólido de lo que indican las cifras crudas. Aun así, con un campo tan fragmentado y dos semanas por delante, la pregunta central sigue abierta: ¿logrará Fujimori convertir su impulso en una victoria en primera vuelta, o la dispersión del voto obligará a los peruanos a volver a las urnas?
Two weeks before Peru's 2026 presidential election, the race has crystallized into a tight contest between two candidates separated by less than two percentage points. Keiko Fujimori, running under the Fuerza Popular banner, holds 13 percent of voter intent according to Datum Internacional's latest survey, while Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular trails at 11.7 percent—a statistical dead heat given the poll's margin of error.
Fujimori's path to the front has been marked by steady accumulation. She began January at 8 percent and has climbed methodically through the winter and into spring, gaining five percentage points over three months. The growth, while modest month to month, represents a statistically significant trend when viewed across the full period. López Aliaga, by contrast, has plateaued. He has held his position without meaningful movement in recent weeks, suggesting his support has found a ceiling or at least paused its expansion.
The field behind them fragments quickly. Carlos Álvarez of País para Todos sits at 6.9 percent, buoyed by a recent debate appearance. Alfonso López Chao (Ahora Nación) holds 6.1 percent, Jorge Nieto (Partido del Buen Gobierno) 5.9 percent, and Roberto Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú) 4.9 percent. The remaining candidates—César Acuña, Ricardo Belmont, Yonhy Lescano, Wolfgang Grosso, José Luna Gálvez, and Fernando Olivera—each command less than 4 percent. Nieto and Sánchez show small but consistent gains week to week, suggesting they may be consolidating support among voters still shopping for alternatives.
What stands out most sharply is the collapse of indecision. In earlier measurements, more than one in three voters remained undecided. That figure has now fallen to just under 24 percent. The "don't know" category dropped from 18.1 to 11.7 percent, while blank and spoiled votes fell from 17.7 to 12.2 percent. The electorate, in other words, is making up its mind. With two weeks remaining, fewer voters are sitting on the fence.
Datum's survey, conducted March 25 through 27, sampled two thousand people across all socioeconomic levels in both urban and rural zones, with a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. The firm also conducted a mock ballot to test how stated preferences might translate into actual votes. When calculated with all ballots cast—including blanks and nulls—Fujimori received 13.2 percent and López Aliaga 9.5 percent. But when recalculated using only valid votes, the way Peru's electoral authority will ultimately count them, the picture shifts. Fujimori's share rises to 18.5 percent, López Aliaga's to 13.3 percent, widening the gap between them by five points. Álvarez climbs to 8.9 percent, Sánchez to 7.4 percent, and Nieto to 6.8 percent.
The simulation suggests that once invalid ballots are removed from the final tally, Fujimori's lead will be more commanding than the raw polling numbers indicate. Yet the race remains genuinely competitive. López Aliaga holds a substantial base, and the candidates ranked third through sixth collectively represent nearly 30 percent of the electorate. The next fourteen days will determine whether Fujimori can convert her momentum into a first-round victory or whether the field remains fractured enough to force a runoff.
Notable Quotes
Fujimori shows sustained growth in measurements over recent months, with an increase that is statistically significant when observing the full period— Datum Internacional analysis
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a two-point gap matter if the margin of error is 2.2 points? Aren't they actually tied?
Technically, yes—that's what "technical tie" means. But the trend matters more than any single snapshot. Fujimori has been climbing steadily for months. López Aliaga has flatlined. Over time, that pattern suggests real movement, even if this week's numbers overlap.
What changed Fujimori's trajectory? Did something happen in January that started her climb?
The source doesn't say. But you can see that Álvarez got a boost after debating publicly. So visibility and performance matter. Fujimori may have benefited from similar exposure, or from López Aliaga simply failing to grow his base further.
The indecision number dropped dramatically. What does that tell us?
It tells you the race is tightening the way races do as election day approaches. People stop waiting and start choosing. With 24 percent still undecided, there's room for movement, but the pool of persuadable voters is shrinking fast.
If Fujimori gets 18.5 percent in the simulation with valid votes only, why does she only show 13 percent in the regular poll?
Blank and spoiled ballots dilute everyone's share. When you remove them, the percentages of valid votes get recalculated upward. It's the same voters, just a different denominator. The simulation shows what the actual election math might look like.
Can López Aliaga still win from here?
Mathematically, yes. He's close enough that two weeks of campaigning could shift the race. But he'd need to reverse his stagnation and start growing again, while Fujimori would have to stop her momentum. The trend line favors her, but trends can break.