Jordan's precarious balancing act as Iran-US-Israel conflict intensifies regional tensions

Six months into a war that began with American and Israeli strikes on Iran, Jordan finds itself trapped between powers it cannot escape. The desert kingdom sits wedged between its ally Israel and its adversary Iran, a geography that has made it a target despite its reluctance to be a combatant. Iranian missiles and drones have rained down repeatedly on Jordanian soil, drawn there by the presence of roughly 4,000 American military personnel stationed across the country. In July alone, one attack on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base near Azraq killed three American soldiers. The base, located about 100 kilometers east of Amman, hosts US Air Force planes and air defense systems, including at least one THAAD anti-missile battery that sustained damage in the barrage.

The attacks have exposed a tension that has simmered in Jordan for years but now threatens to boil over. The kingdom depends on more than $1.5 billion in annual American aid to keep its budget afloat, and its military and intelligence services are deeply intertwined with their American counterparts. King Abdullah has historically favored closer ties with Washington, and the ruling family shows no sign of breaking that relationship. Yet the war has given voice to long-standing resentment. Hamadah Faranah, a former Jordanian politician and commentator, told the ABC that while the majority of Jordanians opposed the conflict, they were equally frustrated with Iran for what he saw as reckless strikes that violated Arab sovereignty. "Iran should have given priority to strike and stop the American naval fleets," he said, suggesting that Tehran's response had been excessive and poorly calibrated.

The situation has forced King Abdullah into an impossible position. Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former special representative for Iran at the State Department, observed that the monarch is acutely aware of the tensions pulling at his kingdom. The royal family cannot afford to abandon the United States—the financial and military dependence runs too deep, and the connections between Jordanian and American institutions are too extensive to sever. Yet allowing American bases to remain on Jordanian territory makes the country a proxy battleground in a conflict its citizens never chose to join. Abrams noted that Jordan's situation differs markedly from wealthy Gulf states like Qatar, which can afford to host American forces because they have the resources to build and maintain expensive facilities. Jordan, by contrast, needs the American money to survive.

Public anger has found expression in ways both visible and muted. Boycotts of American brands—Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Starbucks—have succeeded in creating space for Jordanian alternatives like Matrix Cola, Junior's burger chain, and Marouf Coffee. More significantly, hundreds of people signed an open letter last month demanding the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Jordan. The signatories argued that the American military presence exposed the country to security, political, and economic risks while serving no Jordanian interest. They called for the government to withdraw its security and military agreement with the United States. "Jordan is not a party to this war, and its people should not bear its consequences," the letter stated, a plea that resonated with opposition politicians and ordinary citizens alike. The Jordanian press gave the petition little coverage, constrained as it is by strict government policies on freedom of expression.

Faranah, who did not sign the letter himself, acknowledged that it captured the feelings of many Jordanians. He also noted that despite the friction between Amman and Washington, the relationship remained fundamentally sound. He had traveled to the United States with King Abdullah and witnessed firsthand the strength of those ties. "Yes, there are Jordanian-American rows, not just disagreements, but at the same time these rows don't cause a rift," he said. The kingdom, he suggested, could maintain its alliance with the United States while still charting its own course on matters like Palestine and broader Arab concerns. Yet the calculus is shifting. The 2025 war, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and now the 2026 confrontation with Iran have battered Jordan's tourism industry, a critical source of revenue. More than half the population is ethnically Palestinian, including Queen Rania herself, born in Kuwait to Palestinian parents from the West Bank. The cumulative weight of these conflicts has worn on the country's economy and morale. The real test ahead may come if the United States seeks to expand its military footprint in Jordan—a move that could ignite the very domestic crisis the king has so far managed to contain.