Japan's egg prices hit record highs as feed costs and avian flu fears mount

In Tokyo's Nerima ward, a carton of ten medium eggs costs 268 yen before tax—a price that has begun reshaping how ordinary households shop. A woman in her forties, standing in the produce section of Akidai Sekimachi supermarket, explained the calculus she now performs each week: eggs used to be a staple she bought without thinking, but lately she passes them by. The price has simply climbed too high. She is not alone in this small act of restraint, and her decision ripples through an industry that has long prided itself on keeping eggs affordable and stable.

Japan's egg prices have reached their highest point on record. In a nationwide survey conducted by the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry across 470 stores from September 7 to 9, the average retail price for a carton of ten mixed-size eggs hit 309 yen—a figure that matches the peak ever recorded. The culprit is not a sudden shortage or a single crisis, but rather a slow accumulation of pressures. Rising costs for imported animal feed, driven partly by escalating tensions in the Middle East and the weakening Japanese yen, have pushed production expenses upward. The National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations has raised its feed supply prices by an average of roughly 3,200 yen per tonne for the October-through-December quarter alone. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of increases, a steady climb that shows no sign of reversing.

The supermarket where that woman shops is caught in an impossible position. Akidai Sekimachi runs a Sunday promotion offering ten eggs for just 88 yen including tax—a loss leader designed to draw customers through the door. But the math is brutal. Hiromichi Akiba, the supermarket's president, acknowledged plainly that the store loses money on eggs every single day of the year. The store survives by cutting advertising budgets and adjusting labor costs elsewhere, a strategy that works only so long. For consumers already tightening their belts, even the Sunday discount may not be enough to restore eggs to their former place in the weekly shopping basket.

Winter is coming, and with it comes a darker possibility. Japan has experienced avian influenza outbreaks for six consecutive seasons since 2020. During the 2022 season alone, 17.71 million birds were culled in response to the disease—a catastrophic loss that triggered what the industry calls an "egg shock." Businesses were forced to suspend sales or discontinue entire product lines built around eggs. If such an outbreak occurs this season, when demand for eggs peaks during the Christmas holidays, prices could spike far beyond their current record levels. Industry officials are increasingly anxious as the calendar turns toward autumn and winter, the seasons when the virus typically spreads most aggressively.

The response has been fragmented but determined. Kewpie, one of Japan's largest industrial users of eggs, consumes roughly 250,000 tonnes annually and has begun diversifying its procurement across multiple regions and suppliers. Since 2023, the company has purchased imported eggs from Brazil even during periods when domestic supplies are stable—a hedge against future disruption. Ifuji Sangyo, a major producer of liquid egg products, has set a target to increase its annual sales volume of liquid eggs, including frozen varieties, from approximately 67,000 tonnes to 80,000 tonnes by March 2031. Industry groups are exploring ways to expand the use of frozen eggs, which can be stored for extended periods, and are working to share the costs of storage facilities. These recommendations are expected to be compiled during the fiscal year ending in March 2027.

The government is also moving. The Agriculture Ministry is considering introducing vaccinations against avian influenza as a preventive measure. Seiji Nobuoka, a former professor at Tokyo University of Agriculture, has argued that biosecurity measures alone cannot adequately protect poultry farms from the disease, and that more effective interventions must be pursued. The stakes are clear: without intervention, another major outbreak could devastate an already fragile supply chain and push prices to levels that force even more households to abandon eggs as a regular part of their diet. For now, the woman in Nerima ward continues to shop carefully, and the supermarket continues to lose money on Sundays, and the industry continues to brace for winter.