Israel's election deadlock: Netanyahu faces uncertain path as voters express deep disillusionment

Less than a month before Israelis head to the polls, the country finds itself suspended between two futures, unable to clearly see either one. On the streets of Jerusalem—crowded with secular and ultra-Orthodox Jews, religious nationalists, settlers, Palestinians, and soldiers on leave—the mood is one of exhaustion and uncertainty. The election looming ahead could reshape the nation, yet the arithmetic of power offers no clear winner, and voters themselves seem to have lost faith that any winner will actually change much.

For more than two years, the polls have told a consistent story: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition will fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Yet his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, has no clearer path to power. He has ruled out partnering with Palestinian parties, which are projected to win a critical 12 seats—a self-imposed constraint that leaves him mathematically stranded even if his support holds. The latest Channel 13 poll captured the stalemate perfectly: opposition parties projected to win 52 seats, Netanyahu's bloc at 51, both falling well short. Eisenkot's Yashar party topped the survey with 22 seats; Netanyahu's Likud came in at 18. The result is a deeply fragmented parliament where neither side is close to securing a majority, and both camps are essentially right-wing, offering voters little sense of fundamental change.

This deadlock is fueling a broader crisis of confidence. Public trust in Israeli institutions has collapsed to 34 percent in 2025, down from 61 percent in 2012—a staggering erosion of faith in the systems meant to hold the country together. Rachel, a 42-year-old living in West Jerusalem, captured the mood plainly: she has decided not to vote at all. She once supported the centrist Yesh Atid party, whose name means "there is a future," but she no longer sees one for her country. The atmosphere in Jerusalem is palpable—a mixture of pessimism and paralysis, deepened by the fact that tensions between Palestinians in occupied East Jerusalem and right-wing Jewish Israelis have intensified since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the nearly three years of war that followed in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

Yet voters remain divided on how to respond. Some, like Ilda, who runs a clothing shop on Jaffa Street, one of Jerusalem's oldest commercial thoroughfares, believe the current government bears responsibility for what happened on October 7. She points to reporting that Netanyahu had been warned of a possible major Hamas attack—a claim he denies—and says the government's response was to attack journalists rather than take accountability. A recent poll found that 68 percent of Jewish respondents said October 7 would be central to their voting decision. Others, like Turgeman, are motivated less by security concerns than by economic desperation. Food prices in Israel have reached record highs, with food inflation climbing 9.5 percent over the past two years amid regional conflict and supply chain disruption. Turgeman, sipping coffee with his wife at a café in Jaffa during the Jewish high holidays, said he would vote for Eisenkot because the current government has neglected the economy while continuing to provide financial support that benefits the ultra-Orthodox community. "They think about wars," he said, "while nobody is dealing with the economic crisis."

The ultra-Orthodox community itself is fracturing in ways that could reshape the election. Since October 7, a bitter dispute over military conscription has divided the country. While most Jewish Israelis serve in the military, Haredi men studying in religious seminaries have long been largely exempt. In 2024, as the war dragged on and pressure mounted on reservists, the supreme court ruled there was no legal basis for the exemption to continue. The decision sparked anti-draft protests, roadblocks, and clashes with police. Haredi parties in Netanyahu's coalition have blamed him for failing to pass legislation protecting the exemption. Pinchas, a 24-year-old ultra-Orthodox student who recently completed his military service, said he plans to vote for Eisenkot—and believes others his age will defy their rabbis' guidance this time. "Many are angry about the way Netanyahu handled the conscription law," he said, "and especially about the crackdown on those who protested against it." Ultra-Orthodox Jews make up about 14 percent of Israel's population and have traditionally voted according to rabbinical direction, but that discipline may be breaking down.

Netanyahu retains a loyal base, however. Avraham Levy, a 76-year-old fruit seller at Mahane Yehuda market and a Likud supporter, expressed confidence that Netanyahu would win and secure a majority. "We need to support Netanyahu because he has to finish the job," Levy said, referring to Israel's wars on multiple fronts. Jakub, a 23-year-old about to begin military service, said he would vote for Moshe Feiglin, an extreme far-right former Knesset member now running jointly with the Religious Zionist party. Feiglin declared in 2025 that the conflict in Gaza was not against Hamas but against every child and baby in the territory. "Because he represents my values, and he has never changed his principles," Jakub said.

The opposition's greatest potential advantage—Palestinian parties that could push Eisenkot's coalition over the 61-seat threshold—has been thrown into jeopardy. Last week, the Central Elections Committee voted to bar Ra'am and the Joint List, the country's two main Palestinian parties, after the far-right Otzma Yehudit party filed a petition claiming they support terrorism and deny Israel's existence as a Jewish and democratic state. The decision is being challenged in the supreme court, which has overturned similar bans in past elections. If the ban holds, Eisenkot's path to power becomes even narrower. If it is overturned, Palestinian parties will be crucial to any anti-Netanyahu government.

Palestinian citizens of Israel themselves are deeply divided on how to respond. Tensions have intensified since October 7, with arrests, interrogations, and legal action against Arab citizens often triggered by protests or social media posts. In a 2025 survey, 70 percent of Palestinian citizens said they preferred to remain silent about their political views in the presence of strangers, up from 45 percent in 2016. Amir, a 34-year-old from Mashhad in northern Israel, plans to vote for the Joint List, seeking strong Arab representation on equality and discrimination. Abu Mahmoud, 33, from Kafr Kanna, said he would vote for Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, which has pursued a strategy of political pragmatism—in 2021 it became the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition, seeking budgets, services, and greater influence for Palestinian citizens. "I want politics that can actually improve people's lives," Abu Mahmoud said. The election, in other words, will be decided not just by what Israelis want, but by whether the system allows them to choose it.