You cannot speak to the people of Iran in the language of threats and deadlines.
Five weeks into an active war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the world watches a conflict that is simultaneously intensifying on the battlefield and flickering with uncertain diplomatic signals. President Trump has suggested American forces could withdraw within weeks, yet Iran's leadership speaks of six months of readiness, and the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage through which much of the world's energy flows — remains effectively closed. What unfolds here is not merely a regional military confrontation but a test of whether modern great-power conflict can be paused by negotiation when both sides dispute whether any negotiation is even occurring.
- Rockets over northern Israel, missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and drone swarms across the Gulf have made clear that Trump's claim of having destroyed Iran's capabilities does not match the reality on the ground.
- The Strait of Hormuz blockade is quietly devastating economies far from the battlefield — Iraq faces fiscal collapse, Bangladesh has ships stranded at sea, Indian restaurants have shuttered, and Australia is urging citizens off their cars.
- Trump's two-to-three-week withdrawal signal sent oil markets lurching and diplomats scrambling, but Iran's Foreign Ministry flatly denied that any ceasefire proposal exists, calling the narrative false and baseless.
- The UAE alone has intercepted over four hundred ballistic missiles and two thousand drones since the war began, Kuwait's airport caught fire from a drone strike, and an oil tanker in Qatari waters was hit — the infrastructure of Gulf normalcy is eroding strike by strike.
- International unity has fractured visibly: Britain refused to join the campaign, Ukraine's Zelenskyy is quietly building his own Gulf coalition, and Trump has floated withdrawing the US from NATO — all while his cabinet speaks in contradictory tones about what victory even means.
The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has reached its fifth week with the fighting growing sharper even as diplomatic signals grow stranger. On the morning of April 2, more than thirty rockets crossed into northern Israel from Lebanon within minutes, while Iranian missiles triggered air raid sirens in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial shipping, its blockade now reshaping economies from Baghdad to Dhaka.
The economic damage is spreading in ways that maps of the battlefield do not capture. Iraq's Basra oil fields, which generate roughly ninety percent of the country's national revenue, have fallen nearly silent. Oil prices have swung wildly on ceasefire speculation — Brent crude briefly touched one hundred dollars before slipping — while energy shortages have shuttered restaurants in India, prompted fuel conservation appeals in Australia, and left nearly half a million tonnes of LNG and crude stranded in ships waiting to pass through the Strait. Iran agreed Wednesday to allow some of those vessels through, but the broader blockade holds.
President Trump told Reuters he expects the United States to be "out of Iran pretty quickly," suggesting his core objective — ending Iran's nuclear capabilities — has been met. Vice President Vance has been relaying messages of impatience to intermediaries, and Secretary of State Rubio described the finish line as visible. Yet Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Tehran is prepared for at least six months of war and will not negotiate under threats. Iran's Foreign Ministry called Trump's claim that Iran had requested a ceasefire "false and baseless," and Ayatollah Khamenei reaffirmed support for anti-Israeli forces across the region.
The physical toll continues to accumulate. Israeli airstrikes struck targets across Tehran and multiple Iranian cities on Wednesday. The UAE intercepted five ballistic missiles and thirty-five drones on April 1 alone — part of a running total since the war began of over four hundred ballistic missiles, nineteen cruise missiles, and more than two thousand UAVs. Kuwait's airport caught fire after a drone strike. A QatarEnergy tanker was hit in Qatari waters. Warning sirens have become routine across Bahrain, the Gulf states, and northern Israel.
The international response has fractured rather than unified. British Prime Minister Starmer declared the war "not our war" and declined to join the campaign, drawing praise from Iran's London embassy. Ukraine's Zelenskyy has been quietly building diplomatic ties with Gulf states, comparing the Hormuz blockade to Russia's wartime blockade of Ukrainian ports — "only on a far more dangerous scale." NATO's secretary-general is due at the White House next week, a visit now shadowed by Trump's suggestion he may announce American withdrawal from the alliance.
At home, a poll found that more than sixty-six percent of Iranian Americans now oppose the war, up from a near-even split at the outset, citing civilian casualties and regional destabilization. Trump's cabinet remains divided in tone if not in public position. As the White House prepares to address the nation on what it calls "Operation Epic Fury," the central question has not changed: whether a ceasefire is genuinely within reach, or whether both sides are simply describing different versions of a longer war.
The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has entered its fifth week with no clear end in sight, despite President Donald Trump's signal on Wednesday that American forces could withdraw within two to three weeks. The conflict shows no signs of slowing. On the morning of April 2, rockets streaked across northern Israel from Lebanon—more than thirty in a matter of minutes, leaving smoke rising from settlements in the Galilee. Simultaneously, Iran launched missiles toward Israeli territory, triggering air raid sirens in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. In the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, strangled by Iranian control and the broader military campaign that began with US-Israeli strikes roughly a month ago.
The economic toll is already severe and spreading. In Iraq's Basra province, where nearly all of the country's crude oil is produced and exported, oil fields that once hummed with activity now sit nearly empty. Workers have grown accustomed to rockets crossing the sky, aimed at American air bases and strategic facilities. Iraq depends on oil revenues for roughly ninety percent of its national budget, and most of that oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. With the waterway blocked, ports have fallen silent. The disruption has rippled outward: oil prices have become volatile, swinging on speculation about a possible ceasefire. Brent crude fell more than a dollar per barrel early Thursday as markets awaited Trump's address, dropping to one hundred dollars. American crude slipped below ninety-nine dollars. Yet the blockade has also sent energy costs soaring globally. In Australia, the prime minister urged citizens to use public transport to conserve fuel. In India, restaurants have shut down after commercial LPG supplies were cut. Bangladesh, heavily dependent on imported fuel, has six ships carrying nearly five hundred thousand tonnes of liquefied natural gas and crude oil waiting to cross the Strait—a crossing Iran agreed on Wednesday to allow, though the broader blockade remains in place.
Trump's signal of a near-term exit has created a strange moment of diplomatic activity and market optimism, even as the fighting intensifies. The president told Reuters on Wednesday that the United States would be "out of Iran pretty quickly" and could return for "spot hits" if needed. He said his primary objective—ending Iran's nuclear capabilities—had been achieved. He also indicated he would announce in his evening address that he is considering withdrawing the United States from the NATO alliance. Vice President J.D. Vance has been speaking to intermediaries about the conflict as recently as Tuesday, delivering a message that Trump is impatient and warning of growing pressure on Iranian infrastructure unless Iran makes a deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that discussions with Tehran are underway and that "the finish line" is now visible, though he cautioned against what he called "fake negotiations" aimed at delaying progress.
Iran, however, rejects the premise that a deal is near or even being negotiated. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Tuesday that Tehran is prepared for at least six months of war and will not be bound by external timelines or threats. "You cannot speak to the people of Iran in the language of threats and deadlines," he said. When asked about Trump's claims that Iran had requested a ceasefire, Iran's Foreign Ministry called the assertion false and baseless. The ministry also denied that any ceasefire proposal had been made by Iran, calling reports of a five-point peace plan "media speculation." Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed in a statement read on state television that the nation will continue to support anti-Israeli forces in the Middle East. The message came in a letter to Hezbollah, signaling that Iran's regional strategy remains unchanged despite the military pressure.
The human toll and infrastructure damage continue to mount. Israel's Air Force struck dozens of targets in the heart of Tehran on Wednesday, with explosions reported across multiple Iranian cities including Isfahan, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Karaj, Kermanshah, and Bandar Abbas. Iran responded with waves of missiles and drones. The UAE's air defenses engaged five ballistic missiles and thirty-five unmanned aerial vehicles on April 1 alone; since the war began, the UAE has intercepted four hundred thirty-eight ballistic missiles, nineteen cruise missiles, and more than two thousand UAVs. Saudi Arabia reported downing four drones in recent hours. Kuwait's airport caught fire after an Iranian drone strike, though firefighters extinguished it with no casualties reported. An oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by Iranian forces in Qatari waters. Across the region, warning sirens have become routine—in Bahrain, in northern Israel, in cities across the Gulf.
The conflict has fractured the international response. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the war is "not our war" and refused to join the US-Israeli military campaign, brushing off Trump's threat to withdraw support for the UK over its refusal to participate. Iran's embassy in London praised Starmer's stance, calling it a welcome position against "illegal aggression." NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is scheduled to visit Trump at the White House next week, described as a long-planned visit but coming at a moment of tension over alliance commitments. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has engaged substantively with Middle Eastern nations, saying he is working with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq on shared security concerns. He compared the Strait of Hormuz blockade to Russia's attempt to block Ukrainian ports in 2022, calling it "only on a far more dangerous scale."
At home, American public opinion has shifted. A poll commissioned by the National Iranian American Council found that more than sixty-six percent of Iranian Americans now oppose the war, up from a nearly even split at the conflict's start. Respondents cited civilian deaths, injuries, and destabilization as their primary reasons for opposing it. Trump's cabinet remains divided on the path forward. Rubio, widely seen as a hardliner, described the military campaign as "a favour" for the global community. Vance struck a more cautious tone, saying Washington now has "options" unavailable a year ago but emphasizing the importance of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. As Trump prepares to address the nation on what the White House calls "Operation Epic Fury," the military campaign aimed at dismantling Iran's ability to threaten the US and its allies, the fundamental question remains unresolved: whether a ceasefire is actually possible, or whether both sides are simply preparing for a longer fight.
Notable Quotes
You cannot speak to the people of Iran in the language of threats and deadlines.— Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, to Al Jazeera
We do not set deadlines for our self-defence. We will protect our country and our people for as long as necessary and by all required means.— Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump think he can leave in two or three weeks when Iran is clearly still fighting?
He's saying his objective—degrading Iran's nuclear and military capabilities—has been achieved. But that's not Israel's objective. Israel wants regime change, or at least a fundamental shift in Iran's regional power. Those are different wars.
So the US and Israel aren't fighting the same war?
Not entirely. Trump seems focused on a narrow military goal and an exit. Israel has signaled it has other objectives it's still pursuing. That's the wild card everyone's watching.
What about the Strait of Hormuz? Can Trump just walk away from that?
That's the real problem. He's said he'll hand responsibility to countries that rely on the strait for oil. But those countries can't actually reopen it by themselves. Iran controls it. And Iran isn't agreeing to reopen it without something in return.
What does Iran want?
They haven't said clearly. They're rejecting the idea that they've even asked for a ceasefire. They're saying they're prepared to fight for six months. That's a very different message from what Trump is sending.
Who's actually winning?
Militarily, the US and Israel have air superiority. But Iran keeps launching missiles and drones. Economically, everyone's losing. Oil prices are volatile, global supply chains are disrupted, and countries that depend on Gulf oil are in real trouble. Iraq's economy is nearly paralyzed.
Is there any chance of a real ceasefire?
There are talks happening, but both sides are denying it publicly. Iran says no negotiations are taking place. Trump says serious discussions are underway. When both sides are lying about whether they're even talking, you know the gap between them is still very wide.