Indian shares set for modest gains as Trump signals Iran deal; Adani in focus

Indian stock markets opened the week on a tentative note of optimism on Tuesday, buoyed by signals from Washington that a nuclear agreement with Iran might be within reach. The Nifty 50 futures were trading at 23,688 in early morning dealings, suggesting the benchmark index would open slightly above Monday's close of 23,649.95. President Trump had announced he had called off a planned military strike on Tehran after receiving a peace proposal, and stated there was now a "very good chance" of negotiating a deal to constrain Iran's nuclear program. The comments offered a glimmer of hope that the three-month-old conflict might be moving toward de-escalation.

Yet the market's relief was measured and cautious. Ponmudi R, chief executive at Enrich Money, cautioned that while the diplomatic signals had provided some encouragement, the situation remained unstable and investors were bracing for the possibility of renewed hostilities. The Nifty 50 and Sensex had both fallen roughly 7 percent since the war began in late February, a decline that reflected months of uncertainty and risk aversion. Foreign investors, who had been net sellers of Indian equities throughout the conflict, returned as buyers on Monday, purchasing shares worth 28.14 billion rupees—approximately $292 million—according to provisional exchange data. The shift suggested at least a temporary thaw in their wariness.

The geopolitical turbulence had already begun reshaping India's domestic economy. On Tuesday, the government raised petrol and diesel prices by approximately 0.90 rupees per litre, marking the second increase in a week. The hikes were a direct response to the surge in crude oil costs driven by Middle Eastern tensions, and reflected the government's effort to offset losses from the price escalation. For consumers and businesses already navigating economic uncertainty, the fuel increases added another layer of pressure.

The Adani Group, India's largest conglomerate, emerged as a major focus for market participants. The U.S. administration moved to dismiss criminal fraud charges against Gautam Adani, the group's billionaire founder, while simultaneously settling allegations that one of his companies had violated Iran sanctions. The legal developments represented a significant turn in a case that had weighed on investor sentiment and the group's market valuation. The dismissal and settlement signaled a potential resolution to a source of uncertainty that had shadowed Indian equities.

Elsewhere in the market, individual stocks drew attention for their own reasons. Eicher Motors, the manufacturer behind the Royal Enfield motorcycle brand, secured approval from the Andhra Pradesh state government for a 215.7-acre parcel of land intended for a major expansion project. The greenfield facility would require an investment of 25 billion rupees and represented a significant capital commitment by the company. In the steel sector, investment firms GQG Partners and SBI Mutual Fund were accumulating stakes in JSW Steel, while JSW Energy's promoters were simultaneously offloading shares through open market sales, a pattern suggesting divergent views on the sector's near-term prospects.

The morning's modest gains reflected a market caught between competing forces: the tentative promise of geopolitical de-escalation and the persistent reality of crude oil volatility, foreign investor caution, and the lingering effects of months of conflict. Traders and investors were watching both Washington and Tehran closely, aware that any shift in diplomatic momentum could quickly reverse the day's modest optimism.