Indian markets poised for gap-up open as Trump tariffs fuel safe-haven demand

The Indian stock market was bracing for a sharp opening on Monday morning, with futures trading nearly two hundred points above Friday's close as investors digested the fallout from the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs and President Trump's subsequent executive order imposing ten to fifteen percent levies on global trade partners. The Nifty 50 had closed Friday's session at 25,571.25, up 0.46 percent, but the GIFT Nifty 50 futures—which trade when Indian markets are shut—had climbed to 25,764, a gap that analysts expected would translate into a Sensex opening more than five hundred points higher when trading resumed.

The previous session had shown resilience despite the volatility. Banking stocks, metals, and energy shares had driven the recovery, offsetting weakness in information technology and lingering anxiety over US-Iran tensions. The Bank Nifty had outperformed with a 0.71 percent gain to 61,172. Domestic institutional investors had stepped in as a stabilizing force, purchasing shares worth 2,637 crore while foreign institutional investors sold 935 crore worth, a pattern that analysts viewed as a floor beneath the market even as global uncertainty persisted.

The real story, though, was unfolding in the precious metals markets, where gold and silver were surging as investors sought safety. COMEX gold had opened with an upside gap and climbed to $5,193.91 per ounce, a gain of roughly two percent from Friday's close of $5,080. Silver had moved even more dramatically, jumping over six percent to $87.395 per ounce. The trade tensions and geopolitical risk premium—particularly the escalating standoff between the United States and Iran—were driving what analysts called structurally supportive conditions for bullion. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, noted that the combination of trade uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic crosscurrents was expected to sustain the bull trend in both metals.

The Indian rupee had weakened under pressure from the stronger US dollar and elevated crude oil prices tied to the US-Iran tensions. The currency had fallen twenty-six paise to settle at 90.94 against the dollar on Friday, a 0.30 percent decline. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research for Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, cautioned that the rupee's weakness reflected elevated risk sentiment from the standoff, though he noted that an upcoming AI Summit in India could attract fresh fund inflows and provide support. He identified 91.25 as a support level and 90.50 as resistance.

Despite the headline risks, market strategists saw the pullback as a corrective move within a broader uptrend, with key technical supports holding firm and earnings momentum limiting downside risk. Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, acknowledged that while the US Supreme Court had struck down Trump's earlier reciprocal tariffs, the new executive order resetting tariffs to around ten percent for Indian exports meant the broader backdrop remained cautious. He warned that markets could remain vulnerable to intermittent volatility as geopolitical and trade developments continued to unfold.

For investors looking to deploy capital, technical analysts had identified five stocks with near-term upside potential. Vardhman Textiles, trading at 536 rupees, had recently broken out of a consolidation phase and reached its fifty-two-week high of 539.90, with rising volume suggesting fresh buying interest; analysts recommended buying at 536 with a target of 574 and a stop loss at 517. ABSLAMC, at 918 rupees, had formed a rounding base and broken out to its fifty-two-week high of 921, indicating steady accumulation; the recommendation was to buy at 918 with a target of 984 and a stop loss of 885. BHEL, after a brief correction, had found support near its two-hundred-period moving average at 254 and showed improved bias for further gains; the call was to buy at 257 with a target of 270 and a stop loss of 252. Cummins India, at 4,733 rupees, had sustained above a breakout zone at 4,600 with strong relative strength index positioning; analysts suggested buying at 4,733 with a target of 4,900 and a stop loss of 4,660. JSW Energy, at 493.95 rupees, had recovered from a low near 435 and moved past its fifty-period exponential moving average at 483; the recommendation was to buy at 493.95 with a target of 520 and a stop loss of 484.

The market's trajectory would depend on how the coming days unfolded—whether the tariff uncertainty would ease, whether the US-Iran tensions would escalate further, and whether the domestic institutional buying would continue to provide a floor. The gap-up opening was priced in, but the real test would come once trading began and investors had to decide whether the rally had room to run or whether caution would reassert itself.