There's just no way airlines can absorb the additional costs
In the long arc of global commerce, energy disruptions rarely stay contained — they travel, as fuel does, through every system that depends on movement. Willie Walsh of the International Air Transport Association has made plain this week that the turbulence in the Middle East has reached European skies, and that the cost of flight, long buffered by competitive pricing, is now set to rise. The question facing travelers, airlines, and governments alike is not whether fares will climb, but how steeply — and whether summer's peak season will arrive before the supply chain finds its footing.
- Jet fuel costs, driven by sustained Middle East disruption, have crossed the threshold where airlines can no longer absorb the difference — fare increases are now a matter of when, not if.
- The UK faces a particularly exposed summer: July and August demand typically surges 25 percent above spring levels, and if alternative fuel supplies aren't secured in time, flight cancellations during peak holiday season become a genuine risk.
- Officials across the UK and EU are working to project calm — no shortages reported yet, American-grade fuel alternatives under consideration — but none are willing to rule out disruption further down the road.
- Walsh's deeper warning is structural: refining damage and crude supply disruptions in the Gulf mean that even a resolution to the conflict tomorrow would not bring fuel price relief before 2027, extending the squeeze well beyond this summer.
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, delivered a pointed message to the BBC this week: European airfares are rising, and airlines have no mechanism left to prevent it. Jet fuel costs, kept stubbornly high by Middle East conflict, have outpaced what carriers can quietly absorb. Some airlines had been discounting fares to stimulate demand during a softer travel period, but Walsh was clear that this reprieve is ending. The arithmetic of fuel costs versus ticket prices, he explained, eventually forces the issue.
The concern runs beyond cost into availability. Britain and Europe rely heavily on Gulf fuel imports, and the conflict has destabilised those supply chains at a dangerous moment. Walsh flagged the July-August window specifically — a period when flight volume and fuel demand spike by roughly a quarter compared to spring. If alternative supplies aren't in place before then, airlines could face pressure to cancel flights during the busiest travel weeks of the year. Walsh stopped short of predicting chaos, but he did not dismiss the risk.
Officials have been careful to manage expectations without alarming the public. A UK government spokesperson noted no current shortage reports from airlines. The EU's energy commissioner said near-term supply problems are unlikely, though he left the longer horizon open. Travel operator Tui's chief executive expressed similar measured confidence. The EU is also exploring whether American-grade jet fuel could be adapted for European aircraft, if the transition is handled properly.
Yet Walsh's most sobering point was structural rather than seasonal. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, the damage to Gulf refining infrastructure and crude supply chains would take months — likely stretching into 2027 — to repair. Long-haul fares have already climbed. Short-haul routes are next. For anyone weighing a European trip this summer, the practical advice embedded in Walsh's warning is simple: the window for lower fares is closing.
Willie Walsh, who runs the International Air Transport Association, sat down with the BBC this week to deliver a message that will sting anyone planning a European holiday: airfares are going up, and there's nothing the airlines can do to stop it.
The culprit is jet fuel. Oil prices have stayed stubbornly high, driven by disruption in the Middle East, and that cost is about to hit passengers in the wallet. Some carriers have managed to keep fares low recently by cutting prices to drum up business during a soft-demand period, but Walsh made clear this reprieve is temporary. Airlines, he explained, simply cannot keep absorbing the difference between what they pay for fuel and what they charge for tickets. Over time, the math does not work. Higher prices are coming.
The immediate concern, though, is not just cost—it is availability. The UK in particular faces a precarious summer ahead. Europe and Britain depend heavily on jet fuel imports from the Gulf region, and the conflict there has thrown supply chains into chaos. Walsh flagged a specific vulnerability: July and August typically see a 25 percent jump in flight volume and fuel demand compared to March. If alternative supplies have not been secured by then, shortages could force airlines to cancel flights during peak holiday season. He stressed there is no cause for panic and that widespread cancellations can be avoided, but the risk is real.
Officials are trying to project calm. A UK government spokesperson said airlines are not currently reporting fuel shortages. Dan Jorgensen, the EU's energy commissioner, said he does not expect serious supply problems in the near term, though he would not rule them out further ahead. Sebastien Ebel, who leads the travel operator Tui, echoed the optimism, saying he does not anticipate shortages in the coming months. The EU has even begun exploring whether American-grade jet fuel could be used by European carriers, provided the transition is managed carefully.
But Walsh's warning cuts deeper than the immediate summer risk. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, he said, the damage is already done. Refining facilities in the Gulf have been hit. Crude oil supplies have been disrupted. These are not problems that resolve overnight. The fuel price squeeze, he predicted, will persist for months and could easily stretch into next year. Long-haul flights have already seen significant price increases. Short-haul routes will follow.
The government is working with the aviation industry to keep planes in the air and is consulting on measures to help airlines plan realistic schedules that avoid last-minute chaos. Fuel suppliers maintain reserves to cushion against supply shocks. But none of this changes the fundamental equation: oil is expensive, and passengers will pay the difference. For anyone booking a trip to Europe this summer, the message is clear—book now, or pay more later.
Notable Quotes
There's just no way airlines can absorb the additional costs they're experiencing. Over time it's inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices.— Willie Walsh, International Air Transport Association
The major problem facing the UK is timing. If sufficient alternative supply isn't sourced, there may be some shortages when we get into the peak summer period.— Willie Walsh, International Air Transport Association
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Walsh think the price increases are inevitable when some airlines are still discounting?
Because discounting is a short-term tactic to fill seats during weak demand. It doesn't change the underlying cost of fuel. Once demand returns to normal—which it will—airlines can't keep selling tickets below their actual expenses. The math catches up.
But couldn't airlines just absorb the cost and accept lower profits?
Not sustainably. Walsh is saying there's a limit to how much margin they can squeeze. If fuel stays expensive and they can't pass that cost to passengers, they go broke. It's not greed—it's survival.
The UK government says there's no fuel shortage right now. So why is Walsh worried?
Because right now is not July. Summer is when demand spikes 25 percent. If alternative supplies haven't been locked in by then, the shortage becomes real. He's warning about a timing problem, not a current crisis.
What happens if the Middle East conflict ends tomorrow?
The damage is already done. Refineries are damaged, supply chains are broken. Even with peace, it takes months to rebuild capacity and get prices back down. Walsh thinks this stretches into 2027.
Are passengers going to see this reflected in ticket prices immediately?
Long-haul flights already have. Short-haul will follow. But it depends on demand. If people stop flying because prices are too high, airlines might hold off raising them further. It's a delicate balance.