Oil surges past $110 as Trump threatens escalation in US-Israel-Iran war

Oil was climbing toward $110 a barrel on Thursday as the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran entered its fifth week with no clear endpoint in sight. The surge followed President Donald Trump's declaration that American forces had barely begun their campaign and would spend the next two to three weeks destroying Iranian infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants. His refusal to offer any assurance about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's traded oil passes, sent markets into sharp motion. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 8 to 11 percent depending on the hour, while Brent crude climbed more modestly but steadily upward.

The blockade of Hormuz had become the war's most consequential economic weapon. Two thousand merchant vessels carrying twenty thousand sailors sat trapped in the waterway, unable to move. Forty nations convened virtually under British leadership to discuss how to restore passage, but the diplomatic path remained uncertain. The UN Security Council postponed a vote on authorizing defensive force to protect shipping after Iran warned against any "provocative action," and Russia and China signaled they would likely veto the measure anyway. Iran's vice minister for foreign affairs said his government was preparing a protocol with Oman to establish new navigation rules—a proposal that suggested Tehran might be willing to negotiate passage rather than maintain a total blockade, though details remained vague.

Meanwhile, the physical destruction accelerated. Two of Iran's largest steel plants shut down after repeated strikes, with officials estimating six months to a year before they could resume operations. An Israeli airstrike on a bridge in Karaj killed at least eight people and wounded ninety-five, though Israel denied responsibility. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they had struck Amazon data centers in Bahrain and Oracle facilities in Dubai in retaliation for what they called an assassination attempt on a senior Iranian official. The Israeli military said it had destroyed the Revolutionary Guards' central financial headquarters in Tehran, which it described as the nerve center for funding militant groups across the region including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

The human toll was spreading beyond the combat zone. The World Health Organization launched an urgent appeal for $30.3 million to sustain medical services across the Middle East as health systems buckled under the strain of weeks of intensive fighting, mass displacement, and mounting casualties. In Jerusalem, the Western Wall sat empty during Passover—a rare sight—because Israeli authorities had closed the Old City's sacred sites to prevent crowding in areas with inadequate bomb shelters. Yet even amid the bombardment, the Catholic Church found a way forward: the Cardinal Archbishop of Jerusalem presided over the Maundy Thursday Mass in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, a small act of continuity in a region convulsing with violence.

The war was reshaping geopolitics in unexpected ways. Argentina's government, under President Javier Milei, expelled Iran's top diplomat and designated the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization—moves celebrated by Israel's foreign minister as evidence of a global realignment. France's Emmanuel Macron, by contrast, publicly rejected Trump's proposed military operation in Hormuz and lamented the American president's daily contradictions, calling his recent personal attacks on Macron's wife "inappropriate." China's foreign minister declared the US-Israeli campaign a clear violation of international law.

Inside Iran, the government executed a young man who had participated in January protests against the regime, a reminder that the war was unfolding against a backdrop of internal repression. The Iranian military promised "devastating" counterattacks and claimed that only a fraction of its munitions had been used or damaged, insisting that its main weapons production centers were undetectable and impossible to strike. An Israeli general denied Iranian claims of shooting down an American fighter jet, saying all US aircraft were accounted for and that Iran had made the same false claim at least six times before.

By Thursday evening, crude was trading near $109 per barrel, and the trajectory suggested further volatility ahead. Trump had given no indication he would seek a negotiated end to the conflict. Iran showed no signs of backing down. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed. And forty nations were preparing for a long diplomatic struggle to restore the flow of oil and commerce that the world's economy depended on.