40 percent of voters remain undecided just two months before the primary
In the long tradition of civic disruption born from catastrophe, Los Angeles finds itself in an unusual political moment: a reality television personality, galvanized by personal loss in the Palisades wildfire, is mounting a credible challenge against an incumbent mayor whose standing has been badly eroded by the disaster's aftermath. Spencer Pratt, who lost his home in the fires that killed twelve people and reshaped entire neighborhoods, has translated grief and frustration into a campaign that polling now places within striking distance of Mayor Karen Bass. With four in ten voters still undecided two months before the June primary, the city's electorate appears to be searching for something it has not yet found — a question that may not be answered until November.
- Mayor Karen Bass, once comfortably in power, now faces a 56% unfavorability rating after being abroad during the Palisades fire and drawing sustained criticism over the city's disaster response.
- Spencer Pratt has climbed to 11–14% in independent polls, a remarkable position for a first-time candidate with no political background but significant name recognition and a personal stake in the crisis.
- With 40% of likely voters still undecided just two months before the primary, experts are calling the level of indecision unusual — and a sign that the race is genuinely unresolved.
- Los Angeles's two-round voting system makes a November runoff highly probable, meaning the campaign's most decisive chapter may still be months away and subject to dramatic shifts in momentum.
Spencer Pratt, once known primarily for his years on MTV's The Hills, is running a surprisingly competitive race to unseat Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass — and recent polling suggests the contest is far more open than anyone anticipated when he announced his candidacy in January.
Bass still leads the field with 25 percent of likely voters, but the numbers surrounding her are troubling. Pratt, running as an independent, polls between 11 and 14 percent across two separate university surveys. City Council member Nithya Raman sits in third, while the rest of the field barely registers. Most striking is that 40 percent of respondents remain undecided just two months before the June primary — a level of indecision that UCLA's Zev Yaroslavsky, a former elected official himself, called unusual and significant.
Bass's vulnerability traces directly to the Palisades fire, which killed 12 people and devastated entire neighborhoods while she was on a diplomatic trip to Ghana. The timing of her absence, combined with widespread criticism of the city's recovery efforts, has driven her favorability to troubling lows: 56 percent of voters now view her unfavorably, with only 31 percent holding a positive opinion. One political analyst described her numbers as potentially 'borderline catastrophic.'
For Pratt, the campaign is personal. He and his wife Heidi Montag lost their home in the Palisades fire, and his frustration with the city's response became the animating force behind his candidacy. His television background gives him name recognition and media fluency that other challengers lack, even as his absence of political experience remains an open question.
Los Angeles uses a two-round system, and a November runoff appears highly likely if no candidate clears 50 percent in June. That means the race's most consequential chapter may still lie ahead — and whether the anger that launched Pratt's campaign can sustain itself through the fall remains the central uncertainty of this still-unresolved contest.
Spencer Pratt, the reality television personality best known for his years on MTV's The Hills, is mounting an unexpectedly competitive campaign to unseat Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. The former television star announced his candidacy in January, riding a wave of public frustration over Bass's response to the catastrophic wildfires that swept through Los Angeles in early 2025. What began as a long-shot bid is now looking considerably more viable, according to recent polling data that reveals a fractured electorate and a vulnerable incumbent.
Bass still leads the field heading into the June primary, with 25 percent of likely voters saying they plan to support her reelection. But the numbers tell a story of erosion. Pratt, running as an independent, has climbed to 11 percent in one UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs poll and 14 percent in a separate UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey. City Council member Nithya Raman, a longtime Bass ally, sits in third place with between 9 and 17 percent depending on which poll you consult. The rest of the field—including pastor and housing advocate Rae Chen Huang and nonprofit executive Adam Miller—barely registers. Most striking is that 40 percent of respondents across both surveys remain undecided just two months before the primary vote.
Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the UCLA Luskin center and a former elected official in Los Angeles, called the level of indecision at this stage of the race unusual and significant. He noted that while Bass faces the most challenging reelection battle of any incumbent mayor in decades, the race remains genuinely open. Los Angeles uses a two-round voting system: if no candidate clears 50 percent in June, the top two finishers advance to a November runoff. Yaroslavsky predicted that outcome is highly likely, meaning the race could shift substantially between now and the fall.
Bass's political standing has deteriorated sharply since her comfortable victory four years ago. The Palisades fire, which killed 12 people and destroyed entire neighborhoods, struck while she was on a diplomatic trip to Ghana. The timing of her absence, combined with widespread criticism of the city's disaster response and recovery efforts, has damaged her standing with voters. Current polling shows 56 percent view her unfavorably, while only 31 percent hold a favorable opinion. Dan Schnur, a politics professor at UC Berkeley and Pepperdine, told the Los Angeles Times that Bass's polling numbers could be "borderline catastrophic" for her campaign, particularly given that she is struggling against a relatively unknown field of challengers.
Pratt's entry into the race carries a personal dimension. He and his wife, fellow reality star Heidi Montag, lost their home in the Palisades fire. Pratt has made Bass's handling of the disaster a centerpiece of his campaign messaging, frequently criticizing the mayor's response and recovery efforts. He has cited his frustration with city officials during the crisis as a key motivation for running. The candidate's television background—he rose to prominence on The Hills, where he met Montag—gives him name recognition and media savvy that other challengers lack, though his lack of political experience remains a significant unknown.
The race is far from settled. With four in ten voters still undecided and a November runoff appearing probable, the dynamics of the campaign could shift dramatically in the coming months. Bass retains the advantage of incumbency and the largest share of committed support, but her vulnerability is real. Pratt's surge suggests that anger over the wildfire response has created an opening for a challenger willing to exploit it, even one with no prior political background. The question now is whether that anger will sustain itself through the primary and into the fall, or whether Bass can rebuild her standing before voters cast their ballots.
Notable Quotes
It is unusual for 40 percent of likely voters to be unsure of their choice just two months before an LA mayoralty election. Although Mayor Bass faces the most challenging reelection of an incumbent mayor in decades, it is highly likely that this election will be decided in a November runoff.— Zev Yaroslavsky, director of UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs
That she's having this much trouble against this field, against such a little-known field of opponents, bodes very, very poorly for her. The only thing saving her at this point is that the top tier of potential candidates who were considering running against her decided to stay out of this race.— Dan Schnur, politics professor at UC Berkeley and Pepperdine
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
How does a reality television personality actually become a credible mayoral candidate? What changes?
In this case, it's not that Pratt became credible in the traditional sense. He became relevant because the incumbent became deeply unpopular. The wildfires created a moment where people were angry and looking for alternatives. Pratt had the advantage of being known and being a victim of the same disaster his constituents experienced.
But 11 percent in the polls—that's still quite small. Why is anyone calling this a real race?
Because 40 percent of voters haven't made up their minds yet, and Bass only has 25 percent locked in. In a field this fragmented, with a November runoff likely, those undecided voters are everything. The math is genuinely open.
What does it say about Bass that she's struggling against someone with no political experience?
It says the wildfire response was catastrophic for her politically. She was out of the country when the disaster happened, and people felt abandoned. That's a hard image to recover from, especially when someone is willing to remind voters of it constantly.
Could Pratt actually win this?
It's possible, but unlikely right now. He'd need to win the primary or finish in the top two and then win a runoff. More likely, he's a spoiler who fragments the anti-Bass vote and lets someone else emerge as the main challenger.
What happens between now and November that could change things?
Everything. Campaign spending, endorsements, how Bass rebuilds her image, whether Pratt can move beyond his celebrity status and articulate a vision for the city. Two months is a long time in politics, and four months is even longer.