Nearly four years after the Pretoria Agreement was signed to end Ethiopia's devastating Tigray war, the peace it promised has proven more fragile than its framers hoped. The TPLF has quietly reorganized its political and military structures, formed unlikely alliances with former adversaries, and clashes have resumed in disputed territories — raising the sobering possibility that the 2022 accord was less a genuine resolution than a strategic pause. For the 1.9 million people still displaced and the young men now facing forced recruitment, the distance between a signed agreement and a lasting pe
Al Jazeera
· Sep 05, 2026
· security
· 5 min read
High
Sourcing: Verified
Ethiopia's Pretoria peace deal unravels as TPLF regroups and old enemies align
Approximately 1.9 million people were displaced by the war; many remain unable to return to contested areas, and reports of forced recruitment threaten renewed mobilization of civilians.
◉
War & Conflict
8990 related articles
Ukrainian drones strike Moscow hours after CIA director's visit
Google News · 100% match
Russian missile breaches Polish airspace during Ukraine assault
Deutsche Welle · 99% match
Ukraine's Caspian Sea strikes risk entangling Iran into Russia war
Deutsche Welle · 99% match
Ukrainian Ambassador Charts Improved U.S. Ties, Pushes Diplomacy Befor…
CBS News · 99% match
Polish PM: Russian Kh-101 missile likely struck eastern Poland near Uk…
BBC News · 99% match
Related Coverage
Al Jazeera · Sep 05
US sanctions Turkish bank over alleged Iran ties; bank threatens legal action
The US Treasury sanctioned Golden Global Bank for allegedly facilitating tens of millions in transactions for Iran's Isl…
Al Jazeera · Sep 05 Families of Missing Ecuadorian Fishermen Demand US AnswersFamilies of eight missing Ecuadorian fishermen allege US involvement, suspecting the men may have been killed in a drone…
BBC News · Sep 05 Trump envoys visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend to broker Ukraine peace dealUS negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend to advance Trump's efforts to bro…
BBC News · Sep 05 Russia's Africa Corps prioritizes protecting Sahel regimes over defeating jihadistsRussia's Africa Corps helped Niger's junta repel a mutiny, revealing its role extends beyond counter-insurgency to defen…
Bias & Framing
⚖
Al Jazeera presents TPLF's post-agreement repositioning as potentially deceptive, emphasizing military retention and coalition-building while suggesting the peace deal may have been a tactical pause rather than genuine resolution.
Bias Direction
center-left
Confidence
MED
Skeptical investigative framing that questions the TPLF's intentions and emphasizes breach of agreement terms. The narrative structure moves from agreement promises to alleged violations, creating a 'broken promises' storyline that casts doubt on TPLF's commitment to peace.
unravels
regroups
old enemies align
devastating war
retained military leverage
renewed conflict
tactical pause
striking sequence
TPLF's official explanation for military structure retention
Federal government's alleged violations or provocations since 2022
International mediators' assessment of agreement compliance
Civilian perspectives on security concerns from both sides
Context on why disarmament may be incomplete (security concerns, implementation challenges)
Geopolitical Impact
🌎
Ethiopia's 2022 Pretoria peace deal is unraveling as the TPLF retains military capacity, recruits forces, and forms anti-federal coalitions, threatening regional stability and Horn of Africa security.
Escalation Risk
high
Confidence
HIGH
Ethiopia
Tigray Region
Eritrea
Horn of Africa
The TPLF has strategically repositioned during the peace period, maintaining military structures while building new alliances (Tsimdo coalition) against the federal government. Eritrea's reported engagement with TPLF signals potential realignment of regional actors. Federal government authority in Tigray is being challenged, weakening Addis Ababa's control over a key region.
Similar to the 1991 Ethiopian civil war's ceasefire phases, where armed groups used peace agreements as tactical pauses to regroup before renewed conflict. The TPLF's historical pattern of political-military integration mirrors its behavior during previous truces.
Economic Lens
📈
Ethiopia's failed peace agreement threatens regional stability and economic recovery, with TPLF military regrouping and coalition-building signaling renewed conflict risk, deterring investment and prolonging humanitarian crisis.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
HIGH
Agriculture and food security
Foreign direct investment
Infrastructure and construction
Telecommunications
Tourism and hospitality
Banking and financial services
Humanitarian aid and NGO services
Ethiopian households face renewed displacement risks, food insecurity, inflation from conflict-driven supply disruptions, reduced employment opportunities, and deteriorating access to basic services in conflict-affected regions.
International mediators may need to renegotiate peace terms with stronger enforcement mechanisms; donors may condition aid on compliance; regional powers (Eritrea, Egypt) may increase diplomatic intervention; UN may expand monitoring; Ethiopia's government may face pressure for inclusive dialogue and power-sharing arrangements.