Environment Canada warns spring forecast unreliable as cold air moves into Metro Vancouver

If you've been counting the days until winter loosens its grip on Metro Vancouver, you're in good company. But the calendar may not cooperate as quickly as you'd hope. Environment Canada meteorologist Doug Lundquist has a message for anyone expecting a swift transition to spring warmth: the forecast is murkier than usual, and nobody can say with real confidence what the next few months will bring.

For now, the immediate picture is clearer. Through this weekend, the region is riding a warm, wet pattern—temperatures above what February typically delivers. But that reprieve ends abruptly. A ridge of cold air is pushing in from the interior, and by next week, overnight lows will dip below freezing on several nights. Mid-week, around February 23rd or 24th, there's a chance of snow, though Lundquist expects it will likely arrive as rain mixed with snow or settle only on higher elevations. It's the kind of weather that feels like winter isn't quite ready to leave, but it's not severe enough to alarm anyone either.

The real puzzle begins beyond those next ten days. When Lundquist was asked what spring will actually feel like, he offered a candid assessment: the long-range forecast is less reliable this season than it has been in years. That's not a small thing. It's the kind of admission that reveals how much uncertainty sits beneath what we assume meteorologists can predict.

The reasons are layered. The atmosphere itself is behaving inconsistently right now—not following the kind of predictable patterns that allow forecasters to project weather weeks or months ahead. Add to that a fundamental conflict in the models. Canada's weather model is suggesting below-average temperatures for spring, while forecasting systems from the United States and Europe are pointing the opposite direction. When the world's best tools disagree this sharply, confidence evaporates. Lundquist put it plainly: the seasonal forecast simply isn't reliable at this moment.

Climate change complicates the picture further. As the atmosphere warms overall, what looks like a "cold" forecast might actually end up closer to average—or even warmer. Scientists are still investigating whether changing climate patterns affect how weather systems move, whether they linger longer or accelerate. These are not settled questions. There's also the matter of snow cover in the interior valleys. Across southern British Columbia, low-elevation snow is sparse. When the ground is darker because snow isn't there to cover it, it absorbs more heat from the sun, which can alter how the atmosphere above it behaves. It's a small detail with cascading effects.

All of these factors—atmospheric unpredictability, conflicting models, climate uncertainty, reduced snow cover—create a forecast environment where even experienced meteorologists hesitate to make strong predictions. Lundquist acknowledged that Environment Canada will have a much better sense of what spring will deliver once March 1st arrives, when the meteorological season officially begins. But for now, anyone hoping for clarity will have to wait. The forecast, in other words, is that there isn't one yet.