The gap that once seemed insurmountable was closing.
Un mes antes de la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana, una encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos reveló que la ventaja del maestro rural Pedro Castillo sobre Keiko Fujimori se estaba reduciendo de manera significativa, después de que ambos candidatos se enfrentaran por primera vez en un debate en Chota, Cajamarca. Lo que semanas atrás parecía una distancia insalvable —Castillo con 41.5% frente al 21.5% de Fujimori en abril— comenzaba a comprimirse, recordándonos que en democracia las certezas tempranas rara vez sobreviven al escrutinio de la campaña. Con un tercio del electorado aún indeciso o dispuesto a votar en blanco, el destino político del país permanecía genuinamente abierto.
- La ventaja que Castillo acumuló en abril —casi el doble del apoyo de Fujimori— se ha erosionado en cuestión de semanas, generando incertidumbre sobre si su liderazgo era tan sólido como parecía.
- El primer debate presidencial en Chota, tierra natal de Castillo, parece haber movido el tablero: algo en el intercambio entre los candidatos reconfiguró el cálculo de una parte del electorado.
- La encuesta del IEP, con 1,218 entrevistados en 24 departamentos y un margen de error de 2.8 puntos porcentuales, ofrece una fotografía nacional de peso suficiente para tomarse en serio.
- Cerca de un tercio de los peruanos seguía indeciso o inclinado al voto en blanco, convirtiendo ese bloque flotante en el verdadero campo de batalla de las últimas semanas.
- Fujimori, en su tercera candidatura presidencial, gana terreno justo cuando la campaña se intensifica, sugiriendo que el apoyo inicial a Castillo tenía una fragilidad que las cifras de abril no advertían.
- Con treinta días para el cierre de urnas, la carrera que lucía como una coronación se ha transformado en una contienda genuinamente abierta.
Un mes antes de la segunda vuelta presidencial en Perú, la ventaja de Pedro Castillo sobre Keiko Fujimori comenzaba a desvanecerse de formas que pocas semanas atrás habrían parecido improbables. Una nueva encuesta del Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, elaborada para La República entre el 3 y el 6 de mayo, mostró al maestro rural perdiendo terreno mientras su rival lo recuperaba de manera sostenida.
En abril, Castillo había dominado las preferencias con 41.5% frente al 21.5% de Fujimori. Pero los números se movieron. La encuesta —realizada a 1,218 personas en 24 departamentos, 146 provincias y 421 distritos, con una representatividad provincial del 95% y un margen de error de 2.8 puntos— llegó justo después del primer debate presidencial celebrado en Chota, Cajamarca, la región natal del candidato. Ese encuentro pareció alterar algo en el ánimo del electorado.
Lo que los datos también dejaban ver era la magnitud del centro indeciso: cerca de un tercio de los peruanos aún no había definido su voto o pensaba sufragar en blanco o nulo. Ese bloque flotante era el verdadero campo de disputa en la recta final.
Fujimori llegaba a esta elección en su tercera candidatura presidencial, con la mejor oportunidad en años de alcanzar el cargo que su padre ocupó. Castillo, emergido desde la oscuridad relativa del magisterio rural, había encabezado una ola de izquierda que inquietó a los sectores empresariales y a los centros tradicionales de poder. El acortamiento de la brecha sugería que, a medida que los votantes prestaban más atención, parte del apoyo temprano a Castillo resultaba más frágil de lo que las cifras iniciales indicaban. Con treinta días por delante, el futuro político del país seguía siendo una pregunta sin respuesta.
One month before Peru's runoff election, the race between Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori was tightening in ways that would have seemed unthinkable just weeks earlier. A new poll from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, conducted for La República in early May, showed the leftist teacher's commanding lead eroding while his opponent steadily gained ground.
Two weeks prior, in late April, Castillo had dominated the preference surveys with 41.5 percent of voters saying they would support him, nearly double Fujimori's 21.5 percent. But the numbers were moving. By the time the IEP released its fresh survey—conducted May 3 through 6 across 1,218 respondents spread through 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts—Castillo's support had slipped while Fujimori's had climbed. The gap that once seemed insurmountable was closing.
The timing mattered. The survey came immediately after the first presidential debate between the two candidates, held in Chota in Castillo's home region of Cajamarca. That debate appeared to have shifted something in the electorate's calculus. The poll's geographic reach was substantial enough to carry real weight: it achieved a provincial representativeness level of 95 percent, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points either direction. This was not a snapshot of a single city or demographic slice. It was a picture of the country.
What the numbers also revealed was the size of the undecided middle. In the April survey, roughly one-third of Peruvians had either said they would cast blank or null votes, or had not yet made up their minds. That soft support—the voters still shopping, still uncertain—represented the true battleground in the final month. Neither candidate had locked down the country. Both had room to move.
Fujimori was running for the presidency for the third time, and this race represented her best chance in years to reach the office her father had held. Castillo, the rural educator from Cajamarca, had emerged from relative obscurity to lead a leftist surge that alarmed Peru's business establishment and traditional power centers. The narrowing gap suggested that as voters paid closer attention—as debates happened and campaigns intensified—some of Castillo's early advantage was proving softer than it looked.
The IEP's detailed breakdown would soon show where each candidate held strength and where vulnerabilities lay, broken down by age, income level, gender, and region. But the headline was clear: momentum had shifted. The race that had looked like a coronation for Castillo in late April was becoming something far more competitive as May began. With thirty days until the runoff, Peru's political future remained genuinely uncertain.
Notable Quotes
The majority of Peruvians maintained their intention to vote for Pedro Castillo, but the difference with his opponent Keiko Fujimori was becoming increasingly narrow.— La República reporting on IEP poll findings
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Castillo's lead collapse so quickly? He was nearly doubling Fujimori just two weeks before.
It didn't collapse—it narrowed. That's different. He was still ahead. But yes, something shifted between late April and early May, and the debate in Chota seems to have been the pivot point.
What does a debate do in a race like this? These are people who've already made up their minds, aren't they?
Most have, but not all. That third of the electorate that was still undecided or planning to vote blank—those are real voters. And debates can move people who are paying attention for the first time, or who are wavering between the two.
So Fujimori performed well enough to convince some of those soft voters that she was viable?
The poll suggests that, yes. Whether it was her performance or simply the act of seeing both candidates side by side—it gave her oxygen. She'd been written off by many observers.
What about the blank and null votes? That's a third of the country essentially rejecting both options.
It's a rejection, but also a statement. In Peru, that's a meaningful political act. Those voters weren't going away. They were part of the calculation for both campaigns.
So with a month left, what was actually at stake?
Everything. The race had become genuinely open. Castillo still led, but he was no longer inevitable. That changes how both campaigns operate, what they say, who they target.