In September, the tropical Pacific recorded its most intense El Niño conditions ever measured, with sea surface temperatures climbing 4°C above historical norms — a natural cycle now amplified by decades of human-driven warming. Global ocean temperatures reached 21.05°C, and the world's average surface air temperature stood 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels, quietly surpassing the threshold the Paris Agreement was designed to prevent. Scientists at Copernicus and the United Nations are no longer asking whether the 1.5°C target will be breached, but by how much and for how long — a question th
El Niño Sets Pacific Temperature Record as Global Heat Intensifies
Extreme shifts in rainfall and drought patterns triggered by El Niño will impact global food security, water availability, and livelihoods across vulnerable regions.
Crossing the limit is inevitable. How far we overshoot is up to us.
Mark
So El Niño is a natural cycle—it happens every few years. Why does this one matter so much right now?
Mimi
Because it's arriving on top of a planet that's already warmed. The ocean baseline is higher than it was in 1997 or 2015, the last time we had strong El Niños. This one is pushing temperatures even further.
Luke
But we should be clear: the 4 degrees above normal—that's above the historical average for that specific region during El Niño, not above pre-industrial. Different measurement.
Mimi
Right. And the global sea surface record of 21.05 degrees—that's a new high. The previous record was 20.92 in 2023.
Mark
Is this the strongest El Niño ever, or not?
Luke
Japan says yes. Copernicus says they can't confirm it yet because we're not at peak. So the answer is: probably, but the science is still being written.
Mimi
What matters more is that it's still getting stronger. We haven't seen the worst of it.
Mark
And the Paris Agreement target—1.5 degrees—we're already there?
Luke
We're already exceeding it in individual months. The question is whether we stay above it long-term.
Mimi
Buontempo said we're likely to stay above it into 2027 because of how strong this El Niño is.
Mark
So what happens when El Niño ends?
Luke
The temperatures will drop some. But the baseline won't go back to where it was. That's the real story.
Il Polso
- The tropical Pacific has entered territory without precedent: September's El Niño intensity is the strongest ever recorded, and it has not yet reached its peak.
- Global sea surface temperatures shattered their own record set just a year prior, signaling that extreme heat is no longer an outlier but an accelerating baseline.
- The collision of a record-breaking natural climate cycle with a planet already overheated by emissions is reshaping rainfall and drought patterns before the phenomenon has even peaked.
- Vulnerable regions face compounding threats to food security and water access as El Niño's disruptions ripple outward across continents.
- UN scientists have moved past warning — they now state plainly that the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit will be crossed within years, with elevated temperatures likely persisting into 2027.
- The open question is no longer whether the threshold is breached, but whether collective human action can limit how far beyond it the world travels.
In September, the tropical Pacific recorded its most intense El Niño conditions ever measured, with sea surface temperatures climbing 4°C above historical norms — a natural cycle now amplified by decades of human-driven warming. Global ocean temperatures reached 21.05°C, and the world's average surface air temperature stood 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels, quietly surpassing the threshold the Paris Agreement was designed to prevent. Scientists at Copernicus and the United Nations are no longer asking whether the 1.5°C target will be breached, but by how much and for how long — a question they insist remains, for now, within human hands.
The tropical Pacific has crossed into uncharted territory. In September, sea surface temperatures in the region reached 4 degrees Celsius above their historical average — the strongest El Niño conditions Japan's meteorological agency has ever recorded. The phenomenon has not yet peaked, and its intensifying force is already reordering global weather patterns, deepening droughts in some regions while unleashing torrential rains in others.
The warming does not stop at the Pacific's edge. Global sea surface temperatures hit 21.05°C in September, surpassing the record set just the year before. The world's average surface air temperature for the month stood 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels — a figure that would once have been alarming in isolation, but now registers as part of a quickening trend. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service noted the extraordinary intensity of what is unfolding, even before the event reaches its maximum force.
What makes this moment distinct is the layering of two forces: a natural climate cycle at its most powerful in recorded history, pressing down on a planet already warmed by decades of greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target, once a guiding aspiration for nearly every nation on Earth, is now being exceeded in individual months. The United Nations has warned the long-term breach is a matter of years, not decades, with elevated temperatures expected to persist well into 2027.
El Niño will eventually subside, as it always has. But the ocean and atmosphere will not cool back to where they once were. Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo offered a measured but pointed observation: crossing the Paris threshold is now inevitable, yet how far the world overshoots it — and for how long — still lies within human reach.
The tropical Pacific Ocean has entered uncharted territory. In September, sea surface temperatures in the region climbed to 4 degrees Celsius above their historical average, marking what Japan's meteorological agency has confirmed as the strongest El Niño conditions ever recorded. The phenomenon—the warm phase of a natural climate cycle that shifts rainfall and drought patterns across the globe—is still intensifying, with its peak expected later in the year.
El Niño works by raising water temperatures across the tropical eastern Pacific, a shift that ripples outward in the form of extreme weather. Droughts deepen in some regions while others face torrential rains. The current event's exceptional strength is already reshaping global climate patterns even before it reaches its maximum force. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service has cautioned that while it cannot yet definitively declare this the strongest El Niño on record, the intensity already observed is extraordinary given that the phenomenon has not yet peaked.
The warming extends far beyond the Pacific itself. Global sea surface temperatures in September reached 21.05 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record of 20.92 degrees set just three years earlier in September 2023. The world's average surface air temperature for the month stood at 16.27 degrees Celsius, a full 1.63 degrees above pre-industrial levels measured between 1850 and 1900. September ranked as the second hottest on record for land and ocean combined, a distinction that would have been remarkable in isolation but now reads as part of an accelerating pattern.
These numbers carry weight beyond meteorology. The Paris Agreement, signed by nearly every nation on Earth, set a long-term target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The United Nations has warned that this threshold will be breached within years. Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, stated plainly that the world is now experiencing months that already exceed that limit, and with El Niño continuing to strengthen, temperatures are likely to remain elevated well into 2027.
What distinguishes this moment is the collision of two forces: a naturally occurring climate cycle at its most powerful in recorded history, layered atop a planet already warmed by decades of greenhouse gas emissions. The El Niño will eventually fade, as it always does. But the baseline temperature of the ocean and atmosphere will not return to where it was. Buontempo offered a final observation: crossing the Paris Agreement's long-term limit is now inevitable, but how far the world overshoots that target, and for how long, remains within human control. The next months will test whether that control is exercised.
Citazioni salienti
We are in a new run of months above 1.5C, and with a strong El Niño still intensifying it is likely to last into 2027. Crossing the Paris Agreement's long-term limit is only a matter of time. How far we overshoot, and for how long, is still up to us.— Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service
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