You start getting three months, five months, six months of inadequate rainfall—then you really start to run into problems.
From the depths of the eastern Pacific, where ocean temperatures are climbing above their long-held averages, a familiar but formidable pattern is taking shape. Scientists expect El Niño to peak during New Zealand's summer of 2026-27, redirecting rainfall away from most of the country and ushering in a season of heat, dryness, and compounding risk. It is a reminder that the weather New Zealanders experience is not merely local — it is the expression of vast oceanic forces playing out across hemispheres, and that those forces, amplified now by long-term warming, demand both attention and preparation.
- El Niño is 'well and truly on its way,' according to the principal forecasting scientist, with all the conditions in place for an intense and consequential event by summer 2026-27.
- Regions like Canterbury and Hawke's Bay, already parched after months of below-normal rainfall, face the prospect of dryness stretching unbroken from winter through spring and into summer.
- When dry spells extend beyond three months, water-dependent sectors — farming, horticulture, tank-water households — begin to buckle under pressure that cannot simply be managed away.
- Warming temperatures layered over dry conditions and high winds raise the spectre of an early or out-of-season fire season, with 'spiky' heat events capable of igniting landscapes already stressed by drought.
- Forecasters are urging water-reliant industries to begin contingency planning now, while stressing that ongoing monitoring remains essential as conditions could still shift before summer arrives.
The Pacific is warming in ways that will reshape New Zealand's weather over the coming months. Scientists at the national forecasting service say El Niño conditions are now very likely to peak during the austral summer of 2026-27, bringing drought, extreme heat, and a fundamental shift in where rain falls across the country.
El Niño begins in the eastern Pacific, where rising ocean temperatures weaken the trade winds that normally push warm water westward. The result is that clouds and rainfall which would ordinarily reach Australia and New Zealand instead stall over the open Pacific. For New Zealand, this means drier conditions spreading across most of the country — with the southwest corner of the South Island a notable exception, tending to stay wetter during such events.
The contrast with recent months is sharp. Earlier this year, heavy rain brought flooding and landslides to parts of the North Island. That pattern is about to reverse. Winter rainfall in several regions is expected to fall short of historical averages, threatening groundwater recharge at a time when farmers, horticulturists, and households relying on tank water can least afford it.
Principal forecasting scientist Chris Brandolino described the developing El Niño as having 'all the makings for a rather profound and intense event.' Canterbury and Hawke's Bay, already unusually dry, face extended dryness from winter into spring and summer. Brandolino was direct about when dry spells become dangerous: one or two months can be managed, but three, five, or six months of inadequate rainfall places acute stress on water-dependent sectors.
Temperature compounds the risk. El Niño typically brings warmer conditions, and this event is unfolding against a backdrop of long-term climate warming. Brandolino warned of 'spiky' heat events during spring and summer — sudden and intense — which, combined with dry conditions and strong winds, sharply elevate fire risk and make an early fire season plausible.
Brandolino urged farmers, horticulturists, and water-reliant businesses to begin planning now, drawing on memories of past El Niño events. Forecasts remain subject to change, and staying alert to updates through spring and summer will be essential. For those whose livelihoods depend on water and weather, the next austral summer is already shaping up as a serious test.
The Pacific is warming in ways that will reshape New Zealand's weather over the coming months. Scientists at the national forecasting service say El Niño conditions are now very likely to peak during the austral summer of 2026-27, bringing with them a constellation of risks: drought, extreme heat, and a fundamental shift in where rain falls across the country.
El Niño begins in the eastern Pacific, where ocean temperatures climb above their historical average. When that happens, the trade winds that normally push warm water westward begin to weaken. The consequence is immediate and geographic: clouds and rainfall that would ordinarily drift toward Australia and New Zealand instead stay put over the Pacific. For New Zealand, this means drier conditions spreading across most of the country, with the notable exception of the southwest corner of the South Island, which tends to stay wetter during these events.
The contrast with recent months is stark. Earlier this year, heavy rain brought flooding and landslides to parts of the North Island. That pattern is about to reverse. The forecasting service expects areas that were hammered by those downpours to shift into a period of below-normal rainfall. Winter rainfall in several regions is likely to fall short of the historical average, which creates a cascading problem: groundwater recharge will suffer, and that matters enormously for farmers, horticulturists, and anyone relying on tank water to get through the dry season.
Chris Brandolino, the principal forecasting scientist, described the developing El Niño as "well and truly on its way," with "all the makings for a rather profound and intense event." The regional pattern he outlined is uneven but consequential. Canterbury and Hawke's Bay, already experiencing unusually dry conditions in recent months, face the prospect of extended dryness stretching from winter into spring and summer. Brandolino was direct about the threshold where dry spells become dangerous: one or two months of inadequate rainfall can be managed, but when that stretches to three, five, or six months, the stress on water-dependent sectors becomes acute.
Temperature adds another layer of risk. El Niño typically brings warmer conditions to New Zealand, and this event is unfolding against a backdrop of long-term warming driven by climate change. Brandolino warned that temperatures during the coming spring and summer could be "spiky"—sudden, intense heat events—and when those are combined with dry conditions and unusually strong winds, the fire risk climbs sharply. An early or out-of-season fire season becomes plausible.
The compounding effect is what worries forecasters most. A dry winter followed by a dry spring or summer, layered with warm temperatures and high winds, creates conditions that stress agricultural systems, deplete water reserves, and increase the likelihood of fire. For sectors dependent on reliable water supply, the math becomes unforgiving quickly.
Brandolino urged farmers, horticulturists, and water-reliant businesses to begin planning now, drawing on memories of previous El Niño events or droughts to anticipate what might be needed. The forecasts themselves remain subject to change—conditions could improve or worsen—which means staying alert to updates through the coming months will be essential. For those whose livelihoods depend on water and weather, the next austral summer is already shaping up as a test.
Notable Quotes
All the makings for a rather profound and intense event are there as well.— Chris Brandolino, principal forecasting scientist
As we move through spring and summer there's a distinct possibility we could see some pretty hot days.— Chris Brandolino, principal forecasting scientist
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does El Niño matter so much to New Zealand specifically? Doesn't it affect the whole Pacific?
It does, but the impact is regional. El Niño shifts rainfall patterns in ways that are almost opposite to what New Zealand normally experiences. We lose rain where we usually get it, and that's a problem because our water systems—groundwater, soil moisture, reservoirs—are built on historical patterns.
You mentioned groundwater recharge. Why is that the real worry, not just the lack of rain itself?
Because groundwater is the slow-release system. If you have a dry month, you can often draw on stored water. But if winter—when groundwater normally recharges—is dry, you're starting spring and summer with an empty tank. That's when agriculture really suffers.
The article mentions "spiky" temperatures. What does that mean in practical terms?
Sudden heat waves. Not a gradual warming, but sharp spikes where temperatures jump well above normal for days at a time. When that happens during a dry period with high winds, fire risk explodes. You're not just hot; you're hot and dry and windy all at once.
Is there any part of New Zealand that actually benefits from El Niño?
The southwest South Island tends to get wetter during these events. But that's a small part of the country. Most of the population and most of the productive agricultural land—Canterbury, Hawke's Bay, the east coast—faces the opposite problem.
Why are they telling people to plan now if the forecast could still change?
Because if you wait until spring to realize conditions are dire, you've already lost the winter months when you could have prepared. Contingency planning takes time. And even if the forecast shifts, having a plan doesn't hurt.