How to end the violence that has defined Colombian politics for decades
A month before Colombians cast their ballots, the country stands at a familiar crossroads — weighing the promise of negotiated peace against the weight of unrelenting violence. Senator Iván Cepeda, a philosopher and human rights advocate backed by the sitting left-wing government, leads the presidential field with 38 percent support, yet the arithmetic of a likely runoff leaves the outcome genuinely open. The election is less a contest of personalities than a referendum on Colombia's oldest and most painful question: whether lasting peace is built through dialogue or through force.
- A rebel attack killed 21 civilians over the weekend — one of the deadliest strikes against the civilian population in decades — injecting raw urgency into a campaign already defined by the question of security.
- President Petro's 'total peace' strategy, the centerpiece of the left's time in power, is under direct assault as armed groups continue trafficking, mining, and extorting despite repeated negotiation overtures.
- Right-wing candidates De la Espriella and Valencia, both channeling the hardline legacy of former president Uribe, are pressing the violence as proof that dialogue has failed and a security crackdown is overdue.
- Cepeda's lead is real but fragile — polling shows he could lose a runoff to Valencia if the right consolidates, turning his 38 percent first-round advantage into a potential defeat.
- The race is now a direct collision between two visions of Colombia's future: continued social reform paired with negotiation, or a return to military confrontation with the country's armed groups.
One month before the May 31 vote, Senator Iván Cepeda holds a clear lead in Colombia's presidential race. A new Guarumo poll places the 63-year-old leftist at 38 percent, well ahead of right-wing rivals Abelardo de la Espriella at 23.9 percent and Paloma Valencia at 22.8 percent. Cepeda, a philosopher and human rights advocate, has led consistently since campaigning began, buoyed by the support of sitting president Gustavo Petro. Yet no candidate is on track to clear the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright win, making a runoff the most likely outcome.
The campaign is unfolding against a backdrop of intensifying violence. Over the weekend, armed rebels killed 21 civilians with explosives — one of the deadliest attacks on the civilian population in decades. The massacre has sharpened debate over Petro's defining policy: pursuing negotiations with all illegal armed factions. Those groups have largely rejected the overtures, continuing to sustain themselves through drug trafficking, illegal mining, and extortion.
Both De la Espriella and Valencia have made that failure a centerpiece of their campaigns, calling for a harder line against criminal organizations. Their approach echoes the security-first doctrine of former president Álvaro Uribe, who governed from 2002 to 2010 with aggressive military campaigns backed by the United States. Valencia is seen as the closest heir to that political tradition.
Cepeda, by contrast, is running on continuity — promising to extend Petro's record of social reforms, including historic minimum wage increases and expanded worker protections. The deeper question before Colombian voters is whether they believe negotiation can still deliver peace, or whether the violence demands a return to confrontation. Runoff polling suggests Cepeda would face a technical tie against De la Espriella but would lose to Valencia — meaning the right's ability to consolidate may ultimately decide which direction Colombia takes.
One month before Colombians head to the polls, Senator Iván Cepeda holds a commanding lead in the presidential race. A survey released this week by the polling firm Guarumo shows the 63-year-old leftist candidate drawing 38 percent of voter support, a substantial margin over his two main rivals on the right: lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella at 23.9 percent and opposition senator Paloma Valencia at 22.8 percent. Cepeda, a philosopher and human rights advocate, has maintained his position at the front of the pack since campaigning began, backed by the sitting president, Gustavo Petro, whose government represents the left's first time in power. Yet the numbers also suggest what may come next: a runoff election, since no candidate appears positioned to clear the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright on May 31.
The race unfolds against a backdrop of escalating violence that has become impossible to ignore. Over the weekend, armed rebels killed 21 civilians with explosives in what stands as one of the deadliest attacks on the civilian population in decades. The attack underscores a central tension in Colombian politics right now: how to respond to the country's armed groups, which continue operating despite Petro's signature policy of pursuing negotiations with all illegal armed factions. These groups—guerrillas and paramilitary-origin organizations alike—have largely rejected the overtures, instead sustaining themselves through drug trafficking, illegal mining, and extortion.
Cepeda's opponents have seized on this reality. Both De la Espriella and Valencia are fierce critics of what Petro calls his "total peace" strategy. They argue for a harder line, promising crackdowns on criminal organizations if elected. Their approach echoes the security-first policies of Álvaro Uribe, the influential former president who governed from 2002 to 2010 and pursued aggressive military campaigns against armed groups in partnership with the United States. Valencia, in particular, is seen as aligned with Uribe's political legacy.
Meanwhile, Cepeda's campaign rests on continuity with Petro's agenda. The sitting president has pushed through significant social reforms during his tenure—a record increase to the minimum wage, expanded worker protections, and other progressive measures. Cepeda is betting that voters will want more of the same, even as the violence persists and the peace process stalls. The question facing Colombian voters is whether they believe negotiation can eventually work, or whether security concerns demand a return to the confrontational tactics of the past.
Other recent polls have also shown Cepeda ahead, though the margins vary. The Guarumo survey suggests that in a hypothetical runoff, he would face a technical tie against De la Espriella but would lose to Valencia. That scenario—where the right consolidates behind a single candidate—represents perhaps the greatest threat to the left's hold on power. For now, though, Cepeda remains the frontrunner in a race that will determine not just who leads Colombia, but which direction the country takes on the question that has defined its politics for decades: how to end the violence.
Notable Quotes
Cepeda is betting that voters will want more of the same social reforms—record wage increases, expanded worker protections—even as violence persists— Campaign strategy
De la Espriella and Valencia promise crackdowns on criminal organizations, echoing the security-first policies of the Uribe era— Opposition candidates
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Cepeda's lead feel less secure than the 38 percent might suggest?
Because 38 percent in a three-way race isn't a majority. If no one breaks 50 percent in the first round, there's a runoff. And the polls show him losing to Valencia in that scenario—which means if the right consolidates, he could lose.
So the violence this weekend—the 21 deaths—does that change the calculation?
It crystallizes the argument his opponents have been making. They can point to it and say: this is what happens when you negotiate instead of fight. It's hard for Cepeda to defend a peace process that hasn't delivered peace.
But Petro's reforms—the wage increases, the worker protections—those are real, aren't they?
Absolutely. They happened. The question is whether voters care more about those gains or about feeling safe. When people are afraid, economic policy recedes.
Is there any chance Cepeda wins outright in the first round?
The polls don't show it. He'd need to pull away significantly in the next month, and nothing suggests that's happening. A runoff looks almost certain.
And if Valencia wins that runoff?
Then Colombia swings back toward the Uribe model—military pressure, less negotiation, closer alignment with the security-first approach. The left's first time in power ends after one term.
What would Cepeda need to happen to win?
Either the violence has to stop—which seems unlikely—or he needs to convince people that his version of peace is worth the short-term pain. Or De la Espriella has to hold enough votes that Valencia can't beat him in a runoff. The math is tight.