Amid a broader S&P 500 earnings decline, eight companies quietly rewrote the narrative of corporate resilience in early 2023, posting profit growth of 50% or more in a quarter when caution was the prevailing wisdom. From casino floors to oil fields to online travel platforms, these firms reflect something enduring about human appetite — for experience, energy, and motion — that economic headwinds alone cannot extinguish. As the second quarter unfolds, the question is no longer whether a surprise was possible, but whether it can become a pattern.
Eight S&P 500 Stocks Poised to Repeat 50%+ Profit Growth in Q2
Eight companies are betting the earnings surprise isn't over.
Mark
Why should I care about eight companies posting 50% profit growth? Isn't that just noise in a market of five hundred?
Mimi
Because it tells you something about the whole economy. When the S&P 500 overall is down 2.5% in earnings, but eight major companies are up 50% or more, it means the strength is real and concentrated—not a statistical fluke. It's a signal that certain parts of the market are firing on all cylinders.
Mark
MGM Resorts up 4,300% in one quarter? That sounds impossible. What actually happened there?
Mimi
The comparison is against an extremely weak prior-year quarter—that's how you get those astronomical percentages. But the point isn't the math; it's that the company went from barely profitable to genuinely profitable, and analysts think it will keep accelerating.
Mark
So if these companies do it again in Q2, what does that mean for my portfolio?
Mimi
It means the earnings surprise isn't over. If it happens, valuations hold up. If it doesn't—if Q2 disappoints—then the market has to recalibrate what these companies are actually worth. Right now, investors are betting on the repeat.
Mark
Why is Booking Holdings up 31% when Baker Hughes is down 6% despite both crushing earnings?
Mimi
The market is pricing in different futures. Booking is in consumer discretionary—people will keep traveling. Baker Hughes is in energy, and the market may be worried that oil demand or prices will weaken. Same earnings strength, different bets on what comes next.
Mark
Is this sustainable? Can eight companies keep growing profits 50% every quarter?
Mimi
No. Eventually the comparisons get harder, the economy slows, or the tailwinds fade. But right now, in Q2, analysts think it can happen again. That's the bet.
O Pulso
- While the S&P 500 overall posted a 2.5% earnings decline in Q1 2023, eight companies shattered expectations with profit growth of 50% or more — a jarring contrast that demands explanation.
- MGM Resorts recorded a staggering 4,300% profit surge, and Booking Holdings nearly doubled its earnings, both powered by a post-pandemic wave of 'revenge travel' that analysts underestimated.
- Energy services firms Baker Hughes and Halliburton also delivered triple-digit growth, yet their stock prices have lagged — signaling investor skepticism about whether energy demand can hold.
- Wall Street analysts are now betting all eight companies will repeat their 50%-plus performance in Q2, transforming what looked like a one-quarter anomaly into a potential earnings trend.
- The outcome of Q2 reporting will serve as a referendum on corporate guidance credibility — either validating sustained momentum or forcing a painful recalibration of market expectations.
Amid a broader S&P 500 earnings decline, eight companies quietly rewrote the narrative of corporate resilience in early 2023, posting profit growth of 50% or more in a quarter when caution was the prevailing wisdom. From casino floors to oil fields to online travel platforms, these firms reflect something enduring about human appetite — for experience, energy, and motion — that economic headwinds alone cannot extinguish. As the second quarter unfolds, the question is no longer whether a surprise was possible, but whether it can become a pattern.
The first quarter of 2023 delivered an unexpected counternarrative: eight S&P 500 companies grew profits by at least 50%, even as the broader index saw earnings fall by 2.5%. Now analysts are projecting those same companies will do it again in Q2.
The group spans a revealing cross-section of the American economy — MGM Resorts, Booking Holdings, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, SolarEdge Technologies, UDR, Lamb Weston, and Paccar. MGM led with profit growth exceeding 4,300% and a 25% stock gain year-to-date; analysts expect another 1,609% jump in Q2. Booking Holdings, lifted by surging post-pandemic travel demand, grew profits nearly 200% and is up 31% this year.
The consumer discretionary sector averaged 53.6% profit growth in Q1 — the highest of all eleven S&P sectors — suggesting that Americans with spending power have continued to open their wallets despite inflation and rising interest rates. Energy services firms Baker Hughes and Halliburton also posted triple-digit gains, though their stocks have not kept pace, hinting at investor concern over future oil demand.
LPL Financial's Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder described the earnings season as more than merely 'better than feared,' pointing to genuine operational strength rather than simply beaten-down expectations. Whether these eight companies can sustain their momentum through Q2 will determine whether this is an isolated bright spot or the early signal of a broader corporate earnings recovery — and whether current stock valuations can hold their ground.
The first quarter of 2023 delivered a surprise to stock market watchers: eight companies in the S&P 500 managed to grow their profits by at least 50%, defying the economic headwinds many had feared. Now, as the second quarter unfolds, analysts are betting those same eight companies will do it again.
The list reads like a tour through American consumer spending: MGM Resorts, the casino operator; Baker Hughes, an oil services firm; Booking Holdings, the online travel platform; SolarEdge Technologies; UDR, a real estate investment trust; Lamb Weston, a potato processor; Paccar, a truck manufacturer; and Halliburton, another energy services company. Each posted earnings growth of 50% or more in the first three months of the year. Each is expected by Wall Street analysts to repeat the feat in the current quarter.
The scale of some of these gains borders on the extraordinary. MGM Resorts led the charge with first-quarter profit growth of more than 4,300%. The company's stock has already climbed 25% this year on the strength of that performance. Analysts now project the company's profits will jump another 1,609% in the second quarter—a figure that, while smaller in percentage terms than the first quarter, still represents a staggering acceleration. Booking Holdings, riding what the travel industry calls "revenge travel" as people finally unleashed pent-up vacation demand after the pandemic, grew profits by nearly 200% in the first quarter and is expected to grow another 51% in the current one. Its stock is up nearly 31% year-to-date.
The broader market context makes these individual performances even more striking. The S&P 500 as a whole saw earnings decline by 2.5% in the first quarter. But within the consumer discretionary sector—the part of the market that captures spending on hotels, restaurants, travel, and other non-essential goods—profit growth averaged 53.6%, the highest among all eleven sectors of the index. This suggests that American consumers, at least those with discretionary income, have continued to spend robustly despite inflation and higher interest rates.
Energy companies also contributed significantly to the earnings surprise. Baker Hughes, which provides services to oil and gas producers, posted first-quarter profit growth of more than 86%. The company is expected to grow profits another 198% in the second quarter. Halliburton, another energy services provider, grew profits 105.7% in the first quarter and faces analyst expectations of 53.7% growth in the current quarter. Yet despite these impressive numbers, energy stocks have not participated as fully in the market's gains as one might expect. Baker Hughes shares are actually down 6.3% this year, suggesting that investors may be pricing in a slowdown in energy demand or oil prices.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, characterized the first-quarter earnings season as something more than merely "better than feared." The magnitude of upside surprises and the encouraging guidance from corporate management teams suggested that companies were not just beating lowered expectations but genuinely delivering strong operational results. If these eight companies manage to post 50%-plus profit growth again in the second quarter, it would signal that the earnings strength is not a one-quarter anomaly but the beginning of a sustained period of corporate profitability.
What happens next will matter enormously for stock valuations. If companies continue to deliver earnings growth at these rates, current stock prices may prove reasonable. If the second quarter brings disappointment—if the profit growth slows or reverses—investors will have to recalibrate their expectations for the rest of the year. The market is now waiting to see whether these eight companies, and the broader earnings picture they represent, can sustain the momentum that has surprised so many.
Citações Notáveis
The magnitude of upside surprises in the first quarter, and encouraging guidance from corporate America, suggests the earnings strength is more than just 'better than feared.'— Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
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