Progress toward reconciliation, but not yet toward elections
En el umbral entre el aislamiento y la reintegración, Venezuela atraviesa una transición frágil pero observable: Washington y el FMI han extendido gestos concretos de normalización financiera, mientras funcionarios estadounidenses reconocen avances reales —presos liberados, exiliados que regresan— sin declarar aún que el camino hacia elecciones legítimas esté despejado. Es la vieja tensión entre el incentivo y la recompensa, entre acompañar un proceso y certificar su conclusión.
- El FMI rompió siete años de suspensión con Venezuela el mismo día en que un alto funcionario del Departamento de Estado testificó ante el Congreso, convirtiendo un gesto diplomático en una señal coordinada de apertura.
- Cientos de presos políticos, incluidos ciudadanos estadounidenses, fueron liberados bajo una ley de amnistía, y figuras opositoras que vivían en el exilio han comenzado a regresar a la vida pública.
- Washington levantó las sanciones al Banco Central venezolano, permitiendo al país acceder de nuevo a mercados de crédito internacionales y estabilizar su moneda, pero dejando claro que esto es un incentivo, no una absolución.
- Las condiciones para unas elecciones genuinas siguen sin cumplirse: el registro electoral debe depurarse, el Consejo Nacional Electoral debe renovarse y el Tribunal Supremo necesita una reestructuración profunda.
- La oposición y la comunidad internacional aguardan sin fecha concreta, atrapados entre el progreso verificable y la incertidumbre institucional que define toda transición inacabada.
Esta semana, Michael Kozak, alto funcionario del Departamento de Estado para el Hemisferio Occidental, compareció ante el Congreso estadounidense con un mensaje cuidadosamente calibrado: Venezuela avanza, pero el camino no está terminado. Sus palabras llegaron acompañadas de hechos: ese mismo día, el FMI anunció la restauración de relaciones normales con Caracas tras siete años de suspensión, una decisión firmada por su directora gerente Kristalina Georgieva. La administración Trump había allanado el terreno semanas antes al levantar las sanciones sobre el Banco Central venezolano.
El contexto político es inseparable de estos movimientos financieros. Desde el 3 de enero, cuando Delcy Rodríguez asumió la presidencia interina tras el colapso del gobierno de Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela ha vivido cambios que Kozak describió como señales alentadoras: una ley de amnistía que liberó a cientos de presos políticos —entre ellos ciudadanos estadounidenses—, el regreso de figuras opositoras del exilio y una incipiente reconstrucción de la sociedad civil.
Sin embargo, Kozak fue explícito en que estas transformaciones no bastan para convocar elecciones. El registro electoral debe ser depurado y verificado. El Consejo Nacional Electoral —el mismo que validó la controvertida victoria de Maduro en 2024 sin publicar jamás las actas— necesita ser reemplazado. La cámara electoral del Tribunal Supremo requiere una reestructuración profunda. Son reformas institucionales que no se resuelven en semanas.
El funcionario expresó su esperanza de que María Corina Machado, vetada para competir en 2024, pueda regresar del exilio y participar libremente en futuros comicios. Pero no ofreció plazos. El mensaje de Washington fue coherente: el alivio de sanciones y el regreso del FMI son incentivos para sostener la transición, no certificados de que la democracia venezolana ya ha sido restaurada.
In a hearing before Congress this week, Michael Kozak, a senior State Department official overseeing Western Hemisphere affairs, offered a measured assessment of Venezuela's political trajectory. The country is making progress toward reconciliation, he said—a statement that carried weight precisely because it came paired with concrete action from Washington and the international financial system.
The timing was deliberate. On the same day Kozak testified, the International Monetary Fund announced it was restoring normal relations with Venezuela after seven years of suspension. The decision, signed by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, came after the Trump administration had already lifted sanctions against Venezuela's Central Bank, a move that would allow the country to stabilize its currency markets and access international credit again. These were not symbolic gestures. They represented a fundamental shift in how the world's largest economy and its financial institutions were treating Caracas.
The backdrop to this thaw is the political upheaval that began on January 3rd, when Delcy Rodríguez assumed the role of interim president following the collapse of Nicolás Maduro's government. Kozak pointed to specific developments since then as evidence that Venezuela was moving in the right direction. An amnesty law had freed hundreds of political prisoners, including American citizens who had been detained. Opposition figures who had fled into exile were beginning to return and re-engage in public life. Civil society organizations were rebuilding after years of repression. These were not trivial changes in a country where political imprisonment and forced exile had been routine.
Yet Kozak's testimony also made clear that the United States was not yet ready to declare victory or to call for elections. The first phase of economic stabilization had been achieved, he said, but the political conditions for a genuine democratic vote had not. He spoke of the need for "clear elections"—language that pointed to deeper structural problems. Venezuela's electoral register needed to be purged and verified. A new National Electoral Council would have to replace the one that had validated Maduro's disputed 2024 victory without ever releasing the actual voting tallies. The Supreme Court's electoral chamber would need to be restructured. These were not quick fixes. They were the kind of institutional overhauls that typically take months or years.
Kozak expressed hope that María Corina Machado, the opposition leader who had been barred from running in 2024, would be able to return from exile and participate freely in future elections. But he offered no timeline. The message was consistent: the United States supported Venezuela's transition toward democracy and was willing to normalize relations as a way of encouraging it, but it was not going to pretend that the groundwork had been laid for legitimate elections to happen soon. The sanctions relief and the IMF's return were incentives, not rewards for a job already done.
Notable Quotes
We see progress in Venezuela's political reconciliation— Michael Kozak, State Department official
The first phase of the stabilization plan has been achieved, but clear elections require institutional reforms that have not yet been completed— Michael Kozak, paraphrased from congressional testimony
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would the US lift sanctions now if elections aren't even scheduled yet? Doesn't that remove leverage?
It's a different kind of leverage. By normalizing ties and opening the financial system, Washington is betting that stability and access to credit will make the interim government more willing to do the hard institutional work—purging voter rolls, rebuilding the electoral council. Sanctions were a tool when Maduro was in power. Now the calculus has shifted.
So Kozak's testimony is essentially saying "we see progress, but not enough yet."
Exactly. He's drawing a line between what's happened—amnesty, exiles returning, civil society rebuilding—and what still needs to happen before elections are real. It's a way of saying the transition is genuine but incomplete.
What about the opposition leader, Machado? She's been barred before.
That's the test case. Kozak said he hopes she can return and participate freely. But he didn't say she will be allowed to run. The conditions for that—a clean electoral system, a neutral council—don't exist yet. So his statement is hopeful but conditional.
And the IMF normalizing ties—is that independent of US pressure?
Officially, yes. The IMF said it was following the consensus of member states. But Washington's influence in the Fund is enormous, and the timing here is too neat to be coincidental. The US lifts sanctions, the IMF restores relations, all in the same week. It's coordinated signaling.