Ebola outbreak spreading to new areas despite some containment gains, MSF warns

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is in the grip of its worst Ebola outbreak on record. Since May, more than 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths have been documented, though the actual toll is almost certainly higher—gaps in surveillance and case detection mean many infections and deaths go uncounted. Yet the most troubling aspect of this crisis is not the scale of what has already happened, but the direction the virus is moving.

Médecins Sans Frontières, the international medical organization, is sounding an alarm that sounds counterintuitive at first: some indicators suggest the outbreak may be easing. Patient admissions to Ebola Treatment Centres are declining. Transmission in Ituri, the original epicenter, has slowed. But this apparent progress masks a dangerous shift. The virus is not disappearing. It is migrating to new provinces, to areas with weaker health systems, fewer resources, and less preparation to respond.

Anthony Kergosien, MSF's Emergency Coordinator in the DRC, puts it plainly: assuming the outbreak is under control because some treatment centers are admitting fewer patients would be a fundamental mistake. Nationally, the number of new cases has not fallen. What has changed is the geography of the crisis. South Ubangi has become the seventh affected province. North Kivu, meanwhile, now accounts for nearly half of all newly confirmed cases, with test positivity rates rising sharply in recent days. Undetected chains of transmission are already establishing themselves in the main operational hubs—places where response teams are supposed to be watching most closely.

The challenge this creates is acute. MSF has deployed rapid-response teams designed to catch new clusters early, before they metastasize into large outbreaks. These teams handle early case detection, patient observation and treatment, infection prevention and control, contact tracing, surveillance, and community engagement. In health zones like Bambu, where MSF has positioned a rapid-response team, the strategy is to detect and contain new clusters before they grow. But the health systems in these areas are already fragile. Chronic funding gaps, staffing shortages, and weak referral networks mean that even before Ebola arrived, these facilities were stretched thin. The virus simply pushes them past what they can bear.

MSF's rapid-response teams are meant to bridge those gaps—to provide frontline care while the wider response scales up. But MSF cannot do this alone. The organization is calling for a significant increase in operational support from UN agencies, particularly the World Health Organization. What is needed is not just more resources in the main hubs where response capacity is already concentrated, but a more responsive and comprehensive engagement that reaches the areas where the outbreak is now spreading. Without that support, MSF teams will struggle to deploy rapidly enough to newly emerging clusters, and affected communities will lack access to the full range of services required to contain the virus before it takes deeper root in unprepared territory.