No longer have confidence in Netanyahu
Netanyahu's Likud party led the dissolution to control electoral timing, with voting expected by late May and elections potentially in September or October. Ultraorthodox parties abandoned the coalition after Netanyahu abandoned promised legislation exempting yeshiva students from mandatory military service.
- Netanyahu's Likud projected to win 26 seats, down from current 32
- Elections must occur between 90 days and 5 months after law passage, no later than October 27
- Ultraorthodox parties left coalition after Netanyahu abandoned promised military service exemption
- Netanyahu, 76, has governed Israel 18+ years total; faces corruption trial and recent prostate cancer surgery
Israel's governing coalition dissolved parliament and called early elections after ultraorthodox parties withdrew support over Netanyahu's failure to exempt religious students from military service.
Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition moved to dissolve Israel's parliament on Wednesday, filing legislation to trigger early elections and seizing control of the electoral calendar before opposition parties could force the same outcome. The maneuver came after the coalition's ultraorthodox partners abruptly withdrew their support, leaving Netanyahu scrambling to manage the collapse on his own terms.
The rupture had been building for weeks. Netanyahu had promised the ultraorthodox parties—primarily the Lithuanian faction of United Torah Judaism and Degel HaTorah—that he would pass legislation permanently exempting young men studying in religious seminaries from mandatory military service. On Tuesday, Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of Degel HaTorah, ordered his lawmakers to push for immediate parliamentary dissolution, declaring that his party no longer had confidence in Netanyahu. When the prime minister announced that the exemption bill would not pass before elections, the incentive for the ultraorthodox to remain in the coalition evaporated.
The coalition's fragility had become impossible to hide. Hours before filing the dissolution bill, the government withdrew all pending legislation from the parliamentary schedule, including a controversial appointments law that would have given the government near-total authority to hire and fire senior officials—the attorney general, the military chief of staff, the Shin Bet director, and the police commissioner. The opposition had strategically withdrawn its own bills to expose that the coalition lacked the votes to pass anything. Ofir Katz, the coalition's chief whip, formally submitted the dissolution proposal with backing from six parliamentary blocs: United Torah Judaism, Shas, New Hope, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit.
The opposition, sensing inevitable victory, supported the dissolution as well, making passage nearly certain. A preliminary vote cannot occur before Monday, with the actual vote likely scheduled for May 20. The law allows elections to be held between 90 days and five months after passage, but no later than October 27, when the current legislative term expires. This window became the battleground for competing interests within the coalition itself.
Degel HaTorah wants elections on September 1; Shas prefers September 15, during the Jewish High Holidays, betting that religious and traditional voters will turn out in higher numbers and favor their party. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who just passed the final state budget of this term, is pushing to delay voting until October 27, fearing his Religious Zionism party could fall below the electoral threshold. Netanyahu's allies want maximum delay as well, hoping to accumulate military and diplomatic achievements that might improve his standing with voters.
Polls published Tuesday by Israel's Kan public channel show Likud in first place with 26 projected seats out of 120 in the Knesset—down from the 32 it currently holds. The opposition alliance Beyahad, formed last month by centrist Yair Lapid and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, projects to 25 seats. A third bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, considered a potential ally of Lapid and Bennett, would take another significant share. Recent surveys suggest opposition parties could command a parliamentary majority, though several opposition leaders, including Bennett, have ruled out forming a government with Arab parties—a constraint that could prevent an anti-Netanyahu bloc from actually governing even if it wins more seats.
Netanyahu, 76, has governed Israel for more than 18 years total since 1996, longer than any prime minister in the country's history. He faces a lengthy corruption trial and recently underwent surgery for prostate cancer, but has confirmed he intends to run again. Lapid and Bennett have signaled their campaign will center on establishing a national commission to investigate responsibility for the October 7, 2023 attacks—the deadliest day in Israeli history—and passing legislation subjecting ultraorthodox Jews to mandatory military service. Lapid has already called the recent ceasefire agreement with Iran a political disaster. The election campaign will unfold against this backdrop of unresolved questions about accountability, military obligation, and the shape of Israel's governing coalition.
Notable Quotes
Already no longer have confidence in Netanyahu— Rabbi Dov Lando, spiritual leader of Degel HaTorah
The recent ceasefire with Iran is a political disaster— Yair Lapid, opposition leader
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Netanyahu move so quickly to file the dissolution bill himself rather than wait for the opposition to do it?
Control. If the opposition files first, they set the terms—the timing, the framing, everything. By moving Wednesday morning, Netanyahu's coalition gets to say they chose this, not that they were forced. It's a small thing, but in a collapsing government, small things matter.
The ultraorthodox parties seem like natural allies for Netanyahu. What broke that relationship so suddenly?
It wasn't sudden—it was a broken promise. Netanyahu had assured them he'd pass the military exemption law. When he announced it wouldn't happen before elections, he removed the only reason they had to stay. They weren't leaving because they disagreed with him on policy. They were leaving because he'd made a deal he couldn't keep.
Why would Shas want elections during the High Holidays, when fewer people typically vote?
That's the calculation—fewer voters overall, but the voters who do show up are more likely to be religious and traditional, which helps Shas. It's a bet that their base is more committed to voting than the general population.
The polls show opposition parties could win a majority. Why isn't that a done deal?
Because winning seats and forming a government are different things. Several opposition leaders have said they won't partner with Arab parties, even if they need them for a majority. That's a political red line that could leave everyone without a government, even after elections.
Netanyahu is 76, facing trial, and just had cancer surgery. Why run again?
Because stepping down means the trial continues without the protections of office, and it means admitting defeat. For someone who's been in power as long as he has, that's almost unthinkable. Running again is the only move that makes sense to him.
What happens if the election doesn't produce a clear winner?
Then you're back to coalition negotiations, probably with the same ultraorthodox parties Netanyahu just lost, or with opposition leaders trying to build something stable. Either way, it's messy. Israel could spend months without a functioning government.