Energy supply to the United States is not on the negotiating table
As Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency with tariff threats aimed at Canada, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has traveled to Washington not to resist, but to negotiate — positioning her province's energy wealth as a bridge rather than a weapon. Her refusal to join a unified Canadian retaliatory front reflects an older tension in federations: whether strength lies in solidarity or in the leverage of the indispensable. The answer, as it so often is in human affairs, may depend entirely on who is sitting across the table.
- Trump's threatened 25% tariff on all Canadian imports has forced every Canadian leader to choose a posture — and Smith has chosen one that isolates her from the rest.
- By refusing to sign a joint premiers-and-PM statement keeping energy export cuts on the table, Smith sent a signal to Washington that Canada's united front has a visible crack.
- Her five-day Washington mission — including attendance at the inauguration itself — is a deliberate bid to be in the room where power shifts, making Alberta's energy case directly to incoming officials and industry leaders.
- The federal government is preparing billions in retaliatory tariffs while Smith is preparing to deal, and the collision of those two strategies could hand Trump exactly the leverage he needs to divide Ottawa from its most energy-rich province.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith arrived in Washington this weekend carrying a message no other Canadian leader was willing to deliver: Alberta's energy supply to the United States is an asset to be partnered with, not a weapon to be wielded. Her five-day trip, timed to coincide with Donald Trump's inauguration, is framed by her office as the opening of "an era of partnership" — a deliberate contrast to the retaliatory posture taking shape in Ottawa.
The week's defining moment came when Smith refused to sign a joint statement with other provincial premiers and Prime Minister Trudeau that kept all options on the table, including cutting off energy exports to the U.S. That refusal broke the appearance of Canadian unity at the worst possible moment — just as Trump's threatened 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods were moving from campaign promise toward policy reality.
While Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly and other federal ministers were in Washington preparing a retaliatory response worth billions, Smith was building a parallel track. Her itinerary focused on energy industry leaders and elected officials, and she attended the inauguration ceremony itself — a symbolic claim that Alberta sees opportunity in the transition, not only threat.
The risk in her strategy is as real as its ambition. By signaling that Canada is not unified, Smith may have given Trump an opening to negotiate around Ottawa rather than with it — pressing harder on the federal government while offering Alberta a separate peace. The fracture between province and federation, exposed at a moment when unity might have been Canada's greatest leverage, could prove costly.
Smith is betting that energy speaks louder than politics in Washington. Whether that bet proves shrewd or reckless will depend on what Trump does next — and whether Alberta's indispensability is enough to protect it when the tariffs finally land.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is heading to Washington this weekend with a message that sets her apart from every other Canadian leader in the room: energy supply to the United States is not on the negotiating table. She arrives as Donald Trump prepares to take the oath of office on Monday, a moment when the incoming president has already promised 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods crossing the border on day one.
Smith's five-day trip, beginning Saturday, is framed as a diplomatic mission to build what her office calls "an era of partnership." The itinerary includes meetings with energy industry leaders and elected officials—a deliberate focus on the sector that defines Alberta's economy and leverage. But the real story is what she is not doing: she refused this week to sign a joint statement with other provincial premiers and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that kept all retaliatory options on the table, including the possibility of cutting off energy exports to the U.S.
That refusal landed like a thunderclap in Canadian political circles. While the federal government has spent the week sending ministers to Washington—Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly among them—to prepare a response that includes billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs, Smith has broken ranks. She is betting that Alberta's energy sector is too valuable to the American economy to weaponize, and that a premier willing to negotiate independently will have more leverage than a country speaking with a divided voice.
The timing is deliberate. Trump's tariff threat has created a moment of maximum uncertainty. The federal government is preparing to fight. Smith is preparing to talk. Her presence at the inauguration itself—attending the ceremony on Capitol Hill—signals that Alberta sees opportunity in the transition, not just threat. She will be in the room where power is changing hands, making the case that energy partnership serves both sides better than trade war.
But Smith's strategy carries real risk. By refusing to endorse the joint statement, she has signaled to Trump that Canada is not unified—that one province is willing to break from federal policy to protect its own interests. That could embolden the incoming president to divide and conquer, negotiating separately with Alberta while pressing harder on Ottawa. It could also deepen the fracture between the province and the federal government at a moment when Canadian unity might be its strongest asset.
The federal government has made clear it is ready to fight. Smith has made clear she is ready to deal. What happens when those two strategies collide—when Trump plays one against the other, or when the tariffs hit and Alberta's energy sector faces real pain—will test whether Smith's gamble was shrewd positioning or a dangerous miscalculation. For now, she is betting that in Washington, energy talks louder than politics.
Notable Quotes
Alberta won't stand for cutting off energy supply to the U.S. or export tariffs on the province's energy from Ottawa— Danielle Smith
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Smith break from the other premiers on this? What does she gain by refusing to sign the joint statement?
She's betting that Alberta's energy is too valuable for Trump to actually cut off. If she's the only leader saying "we'll keep selling," she becomes the reasonable voice in the room—the one Trump can work with.
But doesn't that weaken Canada's negotiating position overall?
It absolutely could. That's the risk. She's essentially saying Alberta's interests come before federal strategy. Whether that's smart or reckless depends on what Trump actually does.
What does she hope to accomplish in these five days?
Build relationships with energy leaders and officials who can tell Trump that cutting off Alberta energy would hurt American interests too. She's trying to make the case that partnership is better than confrontation.
And if Trump imposes the tariffs anyway?
Then she's exposed herself as someone who broke ranks with the country and got nothing in return. But if he doesn't, or if he exempts energy, she looks like the one who understood how to negotiate.