As the world edges closer to a climate threshold that scientists warn may already be unreachable, Turkey's Cop31 president-designate Murat Kurum gathered delegates in Fiji this week to argue that wealthy nations have misread the ledger of security — that money poured into military readiness pales against the cost of a destabilised climate. Yet even as small island nations like Tuvalu placed their existential survival before the assembly, the summit's host signalled reluctance to sharpen the language that might most directly address the crisis, leaving the gap between moral urgency and politica
Cop31 host calls for climate spending to far exceed defence budgets
Pacific island nations like Tuvalu, with populations of ~10,000, face existential threats from rising sea levels and intensifying extreme weather, with youth unable to pursue normal futures.
If you don't spend one unit before disaster, you spend 10 units after.
Mark
So Kurum is saying climate spending should be bigger than defence budgets. That's a pretty bold reframing—is he actually going to push that at Cop31, or is this just pre-summit positioning?
Mimi
He's framing it as a security argument, which is smart rhetorically. But then he immediately hedges on fossil fuels, which is the actual mechanism for reducing emissions. It's a bit like saying the problem is urgent while refusing to name the solution.
Luke
Wait—how much more than 5% is he actually proposing? The article says "much more" but doesn't give a number. That's a pretty important detail if we're supposed to take this seriously.
Mark
Good point. And what about the fossil fuel language—he says the world is "already in transition." Is that true, or is that just cover for not wanting to antagonise oil producers?
Mimi
The data suggests it's not true. Emissions are still rising. What he seems to mean is that some countries are transitioning, so maybe we don't need to say it explicitly at the summit. But that logic only works if you ignore the countries still building new coal and gas infrastructure.
Luke
Including Turkey, apparently. The article mentions both Turkey and Australia face accusations of hypocrisy for backing new fossil fuel projects. So when Kurum says climate is a security issue, he's not actually proposing the policy changes that would address it.
Mark
That's the real story, isn't it? The rhetoric about climate security is disconnected from the actual commitments being made.
Mimi
Exactly. And the Pacific nations are watching this play out. They've been clear: no new projects. But the host country is essentially saying, let's not talk about that too directly.
Luke
One more thing—only 13 national leaders showed up to the pre-Cop. That's a pretty weak turnout. How much weight does this meeting actually carry if the major players aren't there?
Mark
That's the question for Antalya, isn't it? If you can't get consensus in a smaller room, how do you get it with 190 countries?
El Pulso
- Turkey's climate minister reframes defence budgets as a moral misdirection, arguing that NATO's 5% GDP military pledge should be dwarfed by climate spending — because disasters unprevented cost ten times more to survive.
- A 13-year-old Tuvaluan girl told visiting ministers that her classmates can no longer dream of ordinary futures, and Fiji's own climate minister wept openly at the closing session, receiving a standing ovation for urging delegates to carry the Pacific home with them.
- Organisers had hoped for a show of global solidarity, but geopolitical turbulence, energy crises, and uncertainty over US climate policy kept turnout thin — only 13 heads of state attended a gathering meant to build momentum for Cop31.
- Pacific nations are pressing three non-negotiable demands into Antalya: hold warming to 1.5°C, make climate finance actually reachable for the most vulnerable, and protect ocean health — yet only 0.2% of global climate finance currently reaches small island states.
- Kurum's hedging on fossil fuel phase-out language has already drawn sharp criticism, with activists warning that pledging transition while approving new coal and gas projects is a logical contradiction the planet can no longer afford.
As the world edges closer to a climate threshold that scientists warn may already be unreachable, Turkey's Cop31 president-designate Murat Kurum gathered delegates in Fiji this week to argue that wealthy nations have misread the ledger of security — that money poured into military readiness pales against the cost of a destabilised climate. Yet even as small island nations like Tuvalu placed their existential survival before the assembly, the summit's host signalled reluctance to sharpen the language that might most directly address the crisis, leaving the gap between moral urgency and political will as wide as ever.
Standing before delegates in Fiji, Turkish climate minister Murat Kurum made a pointed argument: wealthy nations are spending on the wrong kind of security. NATO members have committed to raising defence budgets to 5% of GDP by 2035, but Kurum insisted climate spending should exceed that figure by a significant margin. "The climate issue is the security issue itself," he said, adding that every unit of money spent before a disaster saves ten units spent in its aftermath.
The logic was compelling — but it sat uneasily alongside Kurum's reluctance to commit to stronger fossil fuel phase-out language at next month's Cop31 summit in Antalya. When pressed, he suggested further negotiation on wording might not be productive, a hedge that is likely to generate friction with nations demanding direct action and with activists who argue you cannot phase something out by continuing to build more of it.
The pre-Cop gathering drew roughly 4,000 participants but fewer heads of state than hoped, with geopolitical instability and uncertainty over US climate policy dampening attendance. Australia, holding the presidency of negotiations, had chosen the Pacific location deliberately — to ensure the voices of the most vulnerable could not be ignored. Delegates travelled to Tuvalu, a low-lying atoll nation of around 10,000 people where most land sits barely two metres above sea level, touring a land reclamation project and listening to testimony about life under accelerating threat.
The most arresting voice belonged to a 13-year-old Tuvaluan named Melelusi Sokotia, who told the assembly that her friends' dreams of becoming teachers, doctors, and builders were being overtaken by a more basic question: whether they could safely grow up at home at all. In Fiji, the closing address by climate minister Lynda Tabuya moved the room to tears and a standing ovation as she urged delegates to remember the people they had met and carry something of the Pacific back with them.
Pacific nations arrived with three clear demands: keep warming below 1.5°C, make climate finance genuinely accessible to those who need it most, and prioritise ocean health. Australia's climate minister Chris Bowen noted a damning disparity — only 0.2% of global climate finance reaches small island developing states. A recent UN report reinforced the stakes, projecting that even under optimistic scenarios, global heating will reach at least 1.8°C, well past the Paris Agreement ceiling.
Both Turkey and Australia have backed language supporting a "transition away from fossil fuels," echoing Cop28 in Dubai, but both have also continued approving new coal and gas projects. Dozens of countries frustrated with the UN's stalemate met separately in Colombia this year and plan to reconvene in Tuvalu next July, hoping to arrive in Antalya with enough momentum to force binding commitments. The distance between what the science demands and what the politics will deliver remains the defining tension of the road to Cop31.
Murat Kurum, Turkey's climate minister and president-designate of the upcoming Cop31 summit, stood before delegates gathered in Fiji this week and made a stark argument: wealthy nations should spend far more money fighting climate change than they commit to military defence, because climate breakdown is itself a security threat. NATO members have pledged to increase defence spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035. Kurum said climate spending should exceed that figure by a significant margin. "The climate issue is the security issue itself," he told the Guardian. "If you don't spend one unit of money prior to the disasters, then you are left in a position where you have to spend 10 units of money after the disaster. It's cheaper pre-disaster."
Yet Kurum's framing of climate as a security imperative sat uneasily alongside his reluctance to commit to stronger language on phasing out fossil fuels when countries gather in the Turkish city of Antalya next month for Cop31. Asked whether he thought fossil fuel phase-out language from previous climate summits should be repeated, Kurum suggested the world was already in transition and that further negotiation on the wording might not be productive. This hedging is likely to prove contentious, particularly given that oil-producing nations have consistently resisted direct language about ending fossil fuel use.
The pre-Cop meeting in Fiji brought together roughly 4,000 participants, including about 30 ministers and only 13 national leaders—a smaller turnout than organisers had hoped, attributed to geopolitical instability, energy crises, and uncertainty about the incoming US administration's stance on climate action. Australia, holding the role of president of negotiations at Cop31, had specifically requested the Pacific location to amplify the voices of island nations facing existential threats from rising seas. On Tuesday, delegates travelled to Tuvalu, a low-lying atoll nation of approximately 10,000 people where most land sits only about 2 metres above sea level. They toured a 20-hectare land reclamation project and heard testimony about daily life in a country where accelerating sea level rise, storm surges, and intensifying weather pose an accelerating threat to survival.
Melelusi Sokotia, a 13-year-old from Tuvalu, delivered a speech that captured the stakes. She told the visitors that her friends' aspirations to become teachers, doctors, and builders were being eclipsed by a more fundamental question: whether they could safely grow up in their own country. Back in Nadi, Fiji's climate minister Lynda Tabuya wept during her closing address, receiving a standing ovation as she urged delegates to "remember the people you met" and "carry something of the Pacific with you."
The Pacific nations have articulated three core demands heading into Cop31: countries must act to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate finance must be accessible to poor and vulnerable communities that did not cause the crisis but face its worst impacts, and ocean health must be prioritised. Australia's climate change minister Chris Bowen highlighted a stark disparity: only 0.2% of global climate finance reaches small island developing states, despite these nations needing it most. "That has got to change," Bowen said. "It's a key priority of Cop31."
A recent UN environment programme report underscores the urgency. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, global heating is projected to reach at least 1.8 degrees Celsius, well beyond the 1.5-degree ceiling established by the Paris climate agreement. The report calls for immediate and sustained emissions cuts, noting that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided would save lives and reduce economic losses. Both Kurum and Bowen have indicated they will push for a global goal of generating 35% of energy from electricity by 2035, up from the current 21%. Bowen's approach to phasing out fossil fuels focuses on building sufficient renewable energy capacity so that coal and gas power plants become unnecessary, rather than cutting supply directly.
The tension over fossil fuel language reflects deeper divisions. Both Turkey and Australia backed a multi-country statement supporting a "transition away from fossil fuels," echoing language adopted at Cop28 in Dubai three years ago. Yet both nations have faced criticism for continuing to support new coal and gas projects while remaining largely silent on the need for a direct phase-out. Oil-producing states including Saudi Arabia and Russia have consistently opposed explicit fossil fuel language at climate summits. Tzeporah Berman, chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, was direct: "This means no new projects. You can't phase something out by building more of it." Dozens of countries frustrated with the UN's stalemate on fossil fuels met separately in Colombia this year to chart an alternative path, with plans to meet again in Tuvalu next July and push for binding language in Antalya.
Citas Notables
The climate issue is the security issue itself. If you don't spend one unit of money prior to the disasters, then you are left in a position where you have to spend 10 units of money after the disaster.— Murat Kurum, Turkish climate minister and Cop31 president-designate
Remember the people you met and carry something of the Pacific with you. This pre-Cop draws to a close tonight. Our responsibility does not.— Lynda Tabuya, Fiji's climate minister, in her closing address
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