In the western reaches of Sudan, two catastrophes have converged into one: a drought born of El Niño is stripping the land of its capacity to feed, while a three-year war between the military and the Rapid Support Forces has dismantled the institutions that might otherwise respond. The result is a famine unfolding in real time across Darfur and Kordofan, where nearly 20 million people face acute hunger and 135,000 have already crossed into the most severe threshold of starvation. This is not a warning of what may come — it is a reckoning with what is already here.
Conflict and El Niño drought compound Sudan's famine crisis
At least 150,000 killed in conflict; 13 million displaced; 135,000 in Phase 5 famine conditions facing starvation and death from malnutrition and disease.
A population already weakened by hunger is now highly vulnerable to disease.
Mark
So we have a drought and a war happening at the same time. How much of this is actually the drought's fault versus the conflict?
Mimi
Both are doing damage, but they're not separate problems—they're amplifying each other. The drought destroys crops and water. The war destroys the systems that would normally help people survive a drought: hospitals, supply routes, the ability to move food around.
Luke
Right, but the IPC statement says the drought is affecting half the country. That's a huge area. How much of the 19.5 million facing food insecurity is directly attributable to drought versus displacement and conflict?
Mimi
The IPC doesn't break it down that way in their statement. They're saying both are happening and both are making things worse. The drought is real—the vegetation data from specific regions backs that up. But you're right that we don't have a clean number separating cause.
Mark
What about the 135,000 in Phase 5? That's the famine number. Are those people starving because there's no food, or because they can't access it?
Mimi
Probably both. In some areas like North Darfur, food stocks are critically low—so there literally isn't enough. In other places, the conflict is blocking access. The camps in South Darfur that are already exceeding famine thresholds—those are people who are displaced, so they've lost their livelihoods and depend entirely on assistance.
Luke
The statement says healthcare is "extremely limited, often entirely inaccessible." That's a strong claim. Do we know if that's true across all of Darfur and Kordofan, or is that based on specific reports?
Mimi
The IPC is a consortium of major organizations, so they're drawing on field data from multiple sources. But you're right to push back—"often entirely inaccessible" is a characterization. The underlying fact is that healthcare access has collapsed in conflict zones.
Mark
And the malnutrition doubling in Nyala—from 5 percent to 11 percent in eight months. Is that fast?
Mimi
Yes. That's a significant acceleration. It suggests the situation is deteriorating rapidly, not slowly.
Luke
But that's children admitted to nutrition services. That means they had to get to a clinic. How many children with severe acute malnutrition never make it to a clinic?
Mimi
That's the gap we can't see from this data. The actual number of malnourished children is almost certainly higher than what's being recorded in services.
O Pulso
- Nearly 20 million Sudanese — more than 40 percent of the population — are acutely food insecure, with 135,000 already in Phase 5 famine conditions where starvation and disease-related deaths are a present reality, not a forecast.
- El Niño-driven drought has devastated up to two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and half the arable land across Kordofan, collapsing farmers' livelihoods and pushing dependence on food aid to critical levels.
- Three years of war have killed at least 150,000 people, displaced 13 million, and shattered healthcare and water infrastructure, leaving a weakened population dangerously exposed to disease alongside hunger.
- In Nyala, South Darfur, severe acute malnutrition among children admitted to nutrition services doubled in just eight months — from 5 percent to 11 percent — while two displacement camps have already surpassed the malnutrition thresholds that define famine.
- Territorial fragmentation between the military and the RSF compounds the crisis, blocking aid delivery to the hardest-hit western regions and leaving humanitarian organizations with few viable corridors into the worst-affected areas.
- The IPC — a consortium of 21 organizations including the UN and World Food Programme — has issued an unhedged warning: food insecurity, malnutrition, and excess mortality will intensify, naming what is coming with rare directness.
In the western reaches of Sudan, two catastrophes have converged into one: a drought born of El Niño is stripping the land of its capacity to feed, while a three-year war between the military and the Rapid Support Forces has dismantled the institutions that might otherwise respond. The result is a famine unfolding in real time across Darfur and Kordofan, where nearly 20 million people face acute hunger and 135,000 have already crossed into the most severe threshold of starvation. This is not a warning of what may come — it is a reckoning with what is already here.
Sudan is caught between two catastrophes that reinforce each other with devastating efficiency. A drought linked to El Niño weather patterns is drying out roughly half the country, while a three-year war between the Sudanese military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has fractured the nation's capacity to respond. The convergence has produced a deepening famine crisis concentrated in the western regions of Darfur and Kordofan, where the land is failing and the institutions meant to protect people have largely collapsed.
As of May, nearly 19.5 million Sudanese — more than 40 percent of the population — were facing acute food insecurity. Of those, 135,000 had reached Phase 5, the most severe classification on the food security scale, where starvation and deaths from malnutrition and disease are already occurring. The war has killed at least 150,000 people and displaced around 13 million more, though aid organizations believe the true death toll is considerably higher.
The drought is compounding the damage independently of the fighting. Poor vegetation now affects nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and roughly half the arable land across South Darfur and the Kordofans. Western Kordofan is experiencing one of its worst droughts since 2004. Delayed rains have crippled cultivation, water is critically scarce, and farmers' livelihoods have collapsed.
The human cost is visible in the data. In Nyala, South Darfur, the proportion of children admitted for severe acute malnutrition doubled between January and August — from around 5 percent to 11 percent. Two displacement camps in the same region have already recorded malnutrition rates that exceed the thresholds used to define famine conditions. These are not projections. These are children already malnourished, already at risk.
The conflict has destroyed the infrastructure that might otherwise cushion such a crisis. Healthcare is extremely limited and often entirely inaccessible. Clean water is growing scarce. A population weakened by hunger is now acutely vulnerable to disease. The territorial split between the military and the RSF adds further barriers to aid delivery in the west, where the need is greatest.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification — a consortium of 21 organizations including the UN, World Bank, and World Food Programme — has warned without qualification that food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality will intensify. This is a crisis not waiting to happen, but one already unfolding, accelerated by drought and constrained by war.
Sudan is caught between two catastrophes that feed each other with brutal efficiency. A drought tied to El Niño weather patterns is drying out roughly half the country, while a three-year war between the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues to fracture the nation's ability to respond. The result, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification—a consortium of 21 organizations including the UN, World Bank, and World Food Programme—is a deepening famine crisis concentrated in the western regions of Darfur and Kordofan.
The numbers are staggering. As of May, nearly 19.5 million Sudanese people—more than 40 percent of the population—were facing acute food insecurity. Of those, 135,000 had reached Phase 5, the most severe classification on the food security scale. Phase 5 means starvation. It means extreme malnutrition. It means deaths from hunger and disease are not a projection but a present reality. The war itself has already killed at least 150,000 people according to the conflict monitor ACLED, though aid organizations believe the true toll is substantially higher. About 13 million people have been displaced from their homes.
The drought is doing its own damage independent of the fighting. Poor vegetation growth now affects nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and roughly half the arable land in South Darfur, West Kordofan, and South Kordofan. Western Kordofan is experiencing one of its worst droughts since 2004. Delayed rains have crippled crop cultivation. Water is critically scarce. In North Darfur, food stocks have fallen to dangerous lows. Farmers' livelihoods have collapsed, and dependence on food assistance is climbing.
The human toll is visible in the data. In Nyala, a city in South Darfur, the proportion of children admitted to nutrition services for severe acute malnutrition doubled between January and August—from roughly 5 percent to 11 percent. Two displacement camps in South Darfur have already recorded rates of global acute malnutrition that exceed the thresholds used to define famine conditions. These are not projections. These are children already malnourished, already at risk.
The conflict has shattered the infrastructure that might otherwise cushion such a crisis. Healthcare is described by the IPC as extremely limited and often entirely inaccessible. Clean water is becoming scarce. A population already weakened by hunger is now highly vulnerable to disease. The combination—malnutrition, disease, displacement, and the collapse of medical services—creates conditions where mortality accelerates.
Geographically, the crisis is concentrated in the west. The Darfur region, roughly the size of Spain, has borne some of the worst violence. Displacement camps have been invaded. Ethnic cleansing has killed thousands at a time. The military controls Sudan's central and eastern regions, while the RSF holds Darfur and parts of the south. This territorial split means that aid delivery, already hampered by the fighting, faces additional logistical barriers.
The IPC's warning is direct: food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality will likely intensify. The organization did not hedge or qualify. It named what is coming. A population of nearly 20 million people facing acute hunger, with 135,000 already in the most severe phase, with children's malnutrition rates doubling, with displacement camps already exceeding famine thresholds—this is not a crisis waiting to happen. It is a crisis unfolding in real time, accelerated by drought and constrained by war.
Citações Notáveis
An El Niño-induced drought, affecting roughly half of the country, is compounding the impacts of conflict and displacement, reducing food availability, driving up prices and affecting livelihoods.— Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
Food insecurity, acute malnutrition and excess mortality will likely intensify.— Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
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Climate & Environment