Collingwood's alarm bells ring as form slump threatens top-four finish

Three losses in four weeks have turned Collingwood's season from coronation into crisis. The Pies, who looked unbeatable for most of 2025, have stumbled badly—falling to Brisbane by 27 points, losing to Gold Coast and Fremantle in recent weeks, and watching their grip on the top of the ladder slip away with three home-and-away matches still to play. What was supposed to be a march to the finals has become a scramble just to stay in the top four.

The numbers tell a story of sudden, sharp decline. Between the opening round and round 17, Collingwood ranked first in the competition for scoring efficiency inside their attacking 50 and second for defensive stinginess in their own 50. They were clinical going forward and nearly impenetrable at the back. Since round 18, that elite profile has evaporated. Over the past month, they've ranked 13th in both metrics—a collapse in the very areas that had made them seem inevitable. Their ability to transition from defense to attack, a hallmark of recent premiership teams, has also deteriorated. They now rank 11th in that category, and against Brisbane managed just three successful transitions out of 34 attempts, their third-worst performance under Craig McRae.

The decline extends to individual form. Jamie Elliott, who was rated 12.2 through round 17, has dropped to 3.5 since. Steele Sidebottom has slipped from 12.7 to 9. Jack Crisp fell from 13.7 to 10.7. Dan McStay went from 8 to 5.6. Even the midfield mix—Ned Long, Tom Mitchell, Josh Daicos, Jordan De Goey rotating through the engine room—has felt disjointed. The team that was shooting the lights out early in the season has simply stopped executing at the same level, and the margin between their peak and their current form is stark enough to worry even optimistic observers.

But the most troubling problem is structural. Nick Daicos has been extraordinary—he's the favorite for the Brownlow Medal and plays with a class that sets him apart. Yet Collingwood has become dangerously reliant on him. When Daicos has seven or more disposals in a quarter, the Pies win that quarter 77 percent of the time. When he has four or fewer, they win just 30 percent of the time. More alarming: 43 percent of Collingwood's scores in the last six weeks have gone through Daicos. Brisbane's game plan against them was instructive—Josh Dunkley and the entire Lions team kept an eye on him at all times, and when they managed to contain him, Collingwood had no answer. It's a vulnerability that opposing coaches will exploit, and McRae knows it.

The ball movement has become predictable. Collingwood has leaned heavily on a handball corridor game, moving the ball in flow through the middle, but they've lost the chaos and flair that made them dangerous earlier in the season. Against Brisbane in the fourth quarter, they tried the same long kick down the line five or six times in succession, each time watching it come straight back at them. A couple of years ago, they would have adjusted, taken risks, played differently. Now they seem locked into one way of playing, and when it doesn't work, they have no pivot.

The worst-case scenario is no longer theoretical. If Brisbane, Geelong, and Gold Coast win all their remaining games—which they're favored to do—and Collingwood beats Hawthorn and Melbourne but loses to Adelaide, the Pies could finish fifth with 17 wins, the unluckiest team ever to miss the top four. They've gone from clear number one premiership favorites to about fourth in the betting. McRae has levers to pull: Scott Pendlebury could return to half back for creativity, Dan McStay has trained as a defender, Josh Daicos could be used more in the midfield rotation, and Dan Houston could find a different role. But with three games left before finals, the window to fix these problems is closing fast. The Hawks come next, and that game carries massive finals implications for both sides.