Being more popular than Trump isn't enough
With less than three weeks before Election Day, Kamala Harris's campaign finds itself navigating a familiar tension in democratic politics: the gap between being liked and being chosen. Her net favorability, which briefly crossed into positive territory in September, has retreated to minus one — a small number carrying large implications. Meanwhile, Donald Trump enters this final stretch more popular than at any equivalent moment in his two previous campaigns, reminding us that history's lessons about likability and electoral victory are rarely simple or comforting.
- Harris's favorability arc — a sharp rise from minus 15 in July to plus 1 in September — has reversed course, settling back at minus 1 and signaling that the campaign's early energy may have peaked too soon.
- Trump, still underwater at minus 9, is nonetheless outperforming his own historical baselines from 2016 and 2020, making him a more resilient opponent than his raw numbers suggest.
- The uncomfortable arithmetic haunting Harris's team: both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden held favorability advantages over Trump and still nearly lost or lost outright, proving likability is not a reliable predictor of victory.
- Harris has visibly sharpened her attacks on Trump in recent weeks, a tactical escalation that analysts read as a campaign acknowledging it cannot win on personal appeal alone.
- With Election Day approaching, the central strategic question has shifted from 'Can Harris become more popular?' to 'Can she make Trump the defining issue before time runs out?'
CNN data reporter Harry Enten delivered a frank assessment of Kamala Harris's campaign on Friday: the momentum has stalled, and the numbers are moving in the wrong direction.
Harris entered the race in July deeply underwater at minus 15 net favorability. She climbed steadily — reaching minus 4 by August and briefly touching plus 1 in September. But October brought a retreat to minus 1. The arc told a story of a sharp rise followed by a plateau and decline, and Enten was direct about what it meant: the direction of travel now matters more than the absolute figure.
What gives the decline added weight is the context surrounding Trump. He sits at minus 9 — still unpopular — but he is more favorably regarded now than at equivalent moments in either 2016 or 2020. That comparative strength complicates Harris's position considerably. History offers little comfort: Biden was substantially more popular than Trump in 2020 and barely won; Clinton was more popular in 2016 and lost. A favorability advantage, Enten noted plainly, is not a guarantee of anything.
Harris's recent tactical shift — sharper attacks, darker rhetoric about Trump — appears to reflect a campaign that has absorbed this lesson. If rising personal popularity is no longer a reliable path forward, the alternative is to make Trump himself the central issue. Whether that strategy can succeed with less than three weeks remaining is the question now hanging over the race.
Harry Enten, CNN's senior political data reporter, delivered a sobering assessment of Kamala Harris's campaign trajectory on Friday: the momentum has stalled, and the numbers are moving backward.
Harris entered the race in July with a net favorability rating of minus 15 points—deeply underwater. By August, she had climbed to minus 4. In September, she briefly crossed into positive territory, reaching plus 1. But by October, she had slipped back to minus 1. The arc was clear: a sharp initial rise, followed by a plateau and decline. "The momentum of Kamala Harris has stalled," Enten told CNN's Kate Bolduan, and the direction of travel now matters more than the absolute number.
What makes this pattern significant is what it might explain about Harris's recent tactical shift. Bolduan had noted that Harris has been sharpening her attacks on Donald Trump in recent weeks, speaking about him in darker tones. Enten suggested this escalation may reflect a campaign grappling with an uncomfortable reality: her own popularity is no longer rising, and that alone may not be enough to win. "Being more popular than Trump isn't enough," he said flatly.
Trump, for his part, sits at a net favorability of minus 9 points—still underwater, but in a stronger position than Harris. More significantly, he is more popular now than he was at equivalent points in either 2016 or 2020. That's a striking reversal. Enten posed the question that likely haunts Harris's campaign: "Why is Trump more popular now than he was at this point in 2020 and 2016?" The answer to that question may be driving the shift in strategy.
History offers a cautionary tale. President Joe Biden was substantially more popular than Trump when he won in 2020, yet barely secured victory. Hillary Clinton was more popular than Trump in 2016 and still lost. The lesson is unforgiving: a favorability advantage, even a solid one, is not a guarantee. Harris needs more than to simply outpoll her opponent on likability.
Enten's analysis cuts to the heart of the campaign's dilemma. Harris wants to see her favorabilities continue rising, but they are moving in the opposite direction. Trump, meanwhile, has found a way to be more competitive on popularity than he has been in either of his previous campaigns. The sharpening attacks, the darker rhetoric—these may be symptoms of a campaign searching for a different path forward, one that doesn't rely solely on Harris's personal appeal but instead focuses on making Trump himself the central issue. Whether that gamble will work remains an open question with less than three weeks until Election Day.
Notable Quotes
The momentum of Kamala Harris has stalled— Harry Enten, CNN senior political data reporter
Being more popular than Trump isn't enough— Harry Enten
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
So Harris was climbing steadily through the summer and early fall, and now she's sliding backward. Is that unusual?
Not entirely. Candidates often get a bounce when they enter or re-enter a race. The question is whether they can sustain it. Harris got that bounce—she went from minus 15 to plus 1. But bounces fade. The worry here is that hers faded before the election.
And Trump is actually more popular now than he was before. That seems counterintuitive.
It does, but it's worth sitting with. He's still negative overall. But relative to where he was in 2016 and 2020, he's in better shape on this metric. That's unusual for an incumbent or a returning candidate.
Why would that be?
Enten doesn't say explicitly, but you can infer: polarization, consolidation of his base, fatigue with the alternative. The point is, Harris can't just rely on being more likable than him.
So the attacks are a sign of desperation?
Not desperation exactly. More like a recalibration. If your own popularity isn't rising anymore, you shift focus. You make the race about him instead of about you.
Does that work?
Biden and Clinton both had higher favorability than Trump and still barely won or lost. So the historical answer is: not reliably.