On August 26, a glacier the size of thirty football fields broke away from the Nepal-Tibet border, sending 110 million cubic metres of ice and snow into the valleys below and killing more than 1,300 people, with thousands more still missing. Scientists at Imperial College London have now traced the conditions that made this catastrophe more likely — decades of atmospheric warming that thawed permafrost, raised the freezing threshold, and stripped away the stabilising ice that once held the mountain together. The disaster sits at the intersection of geology and justice: a rare, once-in-millenni
Climate crisis weakened glacier in catastrophic Nepal-Tibet floods that killed 1,300+
Over 1,300 people killed and more than 5,000 remain missing after the glacier collapse triggered catastrophic floods that swept away families, homes, settlements, and infrastructure.
Communities in Nepal are paying with their lives for a crisis thousands of miles away
Mark
So the study says climate change weakened the glacier. But it didn't directly cause it to collapse?
Mimi
Right. The researchers were careful about that distinction. They found warming conditions and permafrost thaw that destabilised the slope, but they didn't claim climate change was the single cause. A 2015 earthquake had already weakened the area.
Luke
How confident are they in that link between warming and the collapse?
Mimi
They documented the warming—2 degrees since pre-industrial times, 5 degrees above normal in the days before. They showed how that heat thaws permafrost and removes stabilising ice. But they're saying it's a compound crisis, not a direct line.
Mark
And 1,300 people died from this?
Mimi
More than 1,300 killed, over 5,000 still missing. The flood moved at 110 miles per hour. There was no warning.
Luke
The study says these avalanches happen once every 1,000 to 10,000 years. So is this just bad luck, or is climate change making them more likely?
Mimi
That's the question the study raises but doesn't fully answer. They're saying the warming has transformed the mountain environment in ways that increase risk. But they can't say climate change made this particular event inevitable.
Mark
Nepal is asking the UN for money. On what basis?
Mimi
They're arguing there's a causal link to climate change, which would make wealthy emitting nations responsible. The study provides evidence of that link, even if it's not a simple cause-and-effect.
Luke
But the study itself says it's not ascribing climate change as the fundamental cause. So how strong is Nepal's legal claim?
Mimi
That's the tension. The science shows warming destabilised the slope. But proving that destabilisation directly caused this specific collapse is harder. Nepal is using the study to make a moral and political argument, not necessarily a legal one.
Mark
What does the researcher say about what comes next?
Mimi
Otto said without much faster action to cut fossil fuel emissions, we'll see more disasters of this scale. The study suggests adaptation alone won't protect vulnerable communities from these kinds of events.
The Pulse
- A glacier collapse registered as an earthquake and sent a wall of ice, rock, and water racing downriver at over 110 miles per hour — with no warning reaching the communities in its path.
- More than 1,300 people were killed and over 5,000 remain missing, entire settlements erased and regions severed from the outside world in a matter of minutes.
- Scientists confirmed that two decades of accelerating warmth — including temperatures 5°C above normal in the weeks before the collapse — had systematically weakened the mountain's slopes through permafrost thaw and glacier retreat.
- Researchers warn that events of this magnitude, once expected only once every thousand to ten thousand years, are now occurring in a climate system already transformed by fossil fuel emissions.
- Nepal has formally requested UN loss and damage funding, with its foreign minister calling on China, India, and other major emitters to accept shared responsibility for a disaster its people did not cause.
On August 26, a glacier the size of thirty football fields broke away from the Nepal-Tibet border, sending 110 million cubic metres of ice and snow into the valleys below and killing more than 1,300 people, with thousands more still missing. Scientists at Imperial College London have now traced the conditions that made this catastrophe more likely — decades of atmospheric warming that thawed permafrost, raised the freezing threshold, and stripped away the stabilising ice that once held the mountain together. The disaster sits at the intersection of geology and justice: a rare, once-in-millennia event made more probable by emissions generated far from the communities that bore the cost. Nepal now turns to the world's wealthiest nations, asking whether global responsibility can be made real before the next mountain gives way.
On August 26, a section of glacier roughly the size of thirty football fields tore away from Langtang Lirung mountain on the Nepal-Tibet border. The collapse sent 110 million cubic metres of ice and snow plunging 1,400 metres into the valley, striking with enough force to register on seismographs. What followed was a torrent of water, rock, and sediment moving at over 110 miles per hour. Communities downstream had no warning. Families were swept away in their homes, settlements demolished, roads and bridges destroyed. More than 1,300 people were killed. More than 5,000 remain missing.
The first scientific study of the disaster, led by researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution collaborative, found that global heating had destabilised the conditions around the glacier over many years. The region has warmed roughly 2°C since pre-industrial times, and in the weeks immediately before the collapse, temperatures reached 5°C above the 30-year average — the warmest July and August on record. The freezing threshold in the Himalayas has risen by about 100 metres per decade since the 1980s, thawing permafrost and weakening slopes. Glacier recession had also removed the stabilising ice that once buttressed the site of the collapse.
Dr Friederike Otto, who led the study, was direct about the moral dimension: communities in Nepal, she said, are paying with their lives for a crisis driven by fossil fuel emissions generated thousands of miles away. Her colleague Dr Ben Clarke pointed to the long-term compound transformation of the high mountain environment as bearing the unmistakable fingerprints of climate change.
What makes the disaster scientifically striking is its rarity — rock avalanches of this scale occur roughly once every 1,000 to 10,000 years. That one has now happened, and that warming conditions can be shown to have made it more likely, leads the researchers to a sobering conclusion: limits to adaptation are already being reached. Nepal has filed a formal request with the UN loss and damage fund, and its foreign minister has called on major emitting nations to accept shared responsibility. For a country that has contributed almost nothing to the global emissions driving these changes, the scale of loss makes the question of fairness not abstract but urgent.
On August 26, a section of glacier the size of roughly 30 football fields tore away from Langtang Lirung mountain in the Nepal-Tibet border region. The collapse sent 110 million cubic metres of ice and snow plummeting 1,400 metres down into the valley below, hitting the ground with such force that seismographs registered it as an earthquake. The impact liquefied the ice and unleashed a torrent of water, rock, and sediment that raced downriver at speeds exceeding 110 miles per hour. When it reached the communities downstream, there was no warning. The flood swept away families in their homes, demolished settlements, destroyed roads and bridges, and left entire regions cut off from the outside world. More than 1,300 people were killed. More than 5,000 remain missing.
The first scientific study of the disaster, conducted by researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution collaborative, found that global heating played a destabilising role in the collapse. The researchers did not claim that climate change directly caused the glacier to fail—the geology of high mountain slopes is complex, and a 2015 earthquake had already weakened the area. But they documented how decades of atmospheric warming had transformed the conditions around the glacier in ways that made failure more likely.
The numbers tell the story of a region in rapid transition. Since pre-industrial times, the area where the collapse occurred has warmed by about 2 degrees Celsius. In July and August 2026 alone, temperatures climbed 1.5 degrees above the long-term average. In the days immediately before the collapse, the region experienced its warmest July and August on record, with temperatures reaching 5 degrees above the 30-year average. That sustained heat had a cascading effect on the mountain itself. The freezing threshold in the Himalayas—the elevation above which snow and ice remain stable year-round—has risen by about 100 metres per decade since the 1980s. As permafrost thawed and temperatures climbed higher and stayed warm longer, the slopes weakened. The warming had also driven substantial glacier recession, removing the stabilising ice that had buttressed the slope where the collapse eventually occurred, and generating meltwater that further destabilised the geology.
Dr Friederike Otto, the climate scientist who led the study, framed the disaster in terms of global responsibility. "Communities in Nepal are paying with their lives for a crisis driven by fossil fuel emissions thousands of miles away," she said. "When warming destabilises the roof of the world, no amount of local adaptation can fully shield vulnerable people downstream from this scale of destruction." Her colleague Dr Ben Clarke noted that the "fingerprints of climate change" were visible in the long-term shifts that preceded the collapse—not in any single weather event, but in the compound transformation of the high mountain environment itself.
What makes this disaster scientifically unusual is its rarity. Rock avalanches of this magnitude occur roughly once every 1,000 to 10,000 years. That such an event has now happened, and that climate science can trace the warming conditions that weakened the slope, carries a stark implication. The researchers concluded that "limits to adaptation are already being reached." Nepal has filed a formal request with the UN loss and damage fund, seeking financial support for recovery and reconstruction. The country's foreign minister, Shisir Khanal, has called on major emitting nations including China and India to "wake up" and accept shared responsibility for the disaster. Madhab Uprety, a senior advisor for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, emphasised that for a nation that has contributed virtually nothing to the problem, the scale of loss and damage underscores an urgent need for fairness in how wealthy countries help vulnerable nations cope with the consequences of a crisis they did not create.
Notable Quotes
Communities in Nepal are paying with their lives for a crisis driven by fossil fuel emissions thousands of miles away. Without much faster action to transition to zero fossil fuel emissions we will inevitably see more disasters of this scale occurring in the years to come.— Dr Friederike Otto, climate scientist, Imperial College London
For a nation that's done virtually nothing to contribute to this problem, the scale of loss and damage underscores the need to find fairness in helping climate vulnerable nations cope with the problems they have not unleashed.— Madhab Uprety, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
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