CIA: Iran Can Withstand U.S. Blockade Four Months as Gulf Fighting Escalates

A month into a ceasefire that was supposed to hold, the Strait of Hormuz erupted again on Friday. Iranian forces and U.S. vessels traded fire in the waterway. The United Arab Emirates reported that two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran struck its territory, injuring three people. A U.S. Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late Thursday killed one crew member, wounded ten others, and left four missing. The war that began on February 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran had quieted for thirty days. Now it was fraying.

Behind the scenes, American intelligence was drawing a sobering conclusion about the leverage Washington actually held. A CIA assessment, first reported by the Washington Post, concluded that Iran could absorb the economic punishment of a U.S. naval blockade for roughly four more months before suffering severe financial strain. That timeline mattered enormously. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Rome on Friday waiting for Tehran's response to an American proposal to formally end the war—a first step before negotiations could move to harder issues like Iran's nuclear program. "We should know something today," Rubio told reporters. But the blockade assessment suggested that even if talks stalled, the U.S. had limited time to force Iran's hand through economic pressure alone.

The fighting in the strait had been the most intense since the ceasefire began on April 7. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported sporadic clashes. The U.S. military said it struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, hitting their smokestacks and forcing them to turn back. Iran had largely sealed the strait to non-Iranian shipping since the war started. The U.S. had imposed its own blockade on Iranian vessels the previous month. Oil prices climbed, with Brent crude futures trading above $101 a barrel, though down more than 6 percent for the week. Before the war, the strait had handled one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

Iran's foreign ministry said it was still weighing its response to the American proposal. By mid-afternoon Washington time—just before midnight in Tehran—no answer had come. Iran's military sources told the Tasnim news agency that the situation in the strait had calmed, though more clashes remained possible. The broader pattern was clear: every time diplomacy seemed to gain ground, the guns spoke again.

Trump said Thursday that the ceasefire was still holding despite the flare-ups. But the strain was visible. Iran accused the U.S. of breaching the truce. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that whenever a diplomatic solution appeared, Washington chose "reckless military adventure." The escalation had accelerated this week after Trump announced "Project Freedom," a plan to escort ships through the strait. He paused the operation after 48 hours, but Iran called the announcement itself a major escalation and responded with intensified attacks on the UAE and other Gulf states hosting American military bases.

Rubio, meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, pressed allies to support the U.S. position on reopening the strait. "Are you going to normalise a country claiming to control an international waterway?" he asked. "Because if you normalise that, you've set a precedent that's going to get repeated in a dozen other places."

While pursuing talks, the U.S. was also tightening the financial noose. On Friday, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against ten individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for helping Iran's military acquire weapons and raw materials for its Shahed drone program. Treasury said it was prepared to impose secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions aiding Iran's efforts, including those connected to China's independent oil refineries. The announcement came days before Trump planned to travel to China to meet with President Xi Jinping. The dual strategy was unmistakable: negotiate while squeezing, talk while sanctioning. But the CIA's four-month assessment hung over everything. Time, it suggested, was not entirely on America's side.