In the shadow of a war that has claimed thousands of lives since February, Islamabad has become an unlikely crossroads of diplomacy — where Iranian and American envoys prepare to negotiate peace, and where the quiet hand of Beijing has already proven decisive. Pakistan brokered a fragile two-week ceasefire, but it was China's eleventh-hour intervention with Tehran that kept the agreement from unraveling. Now, as the harder work of permanent peace begins, the world watches to see whether China — bound to Iran by trade and to Pakistan by brotherhood — will step from the shadows to hold a lasting
China emerges as crucial guarantor in Pakistan-brokered Mideast peace talks
The war has claimed thousands of lives and disrupted the global economy since fighting began on February 28.
China stepped in and convinced Iran to agree when hopes were fading
Mark
So Pakistan brokered the ceasefire, but the reporting says China actually convinced Iran to accept it. How much credit does Pakistan actually deserve here?
Mimi
Pakistan did the visible work—the shuttle diplomacy, the personal relationships with both sides. But yes, at the critical moment on ceasefire night, when the deal was about to fall apart, China made the call that moved Iran. Pakistan's officials are being honest about that.
Luke
We should note that we're hearing this from Pakistani officials and Trump. We don't have a direct statement from Iran or China confirming exactly what happened that night. It's their account of events.
Mark
Fair point. So why is China the right guarantor? Why not someone else?
Mimi
Russia was the obvious alternative, but it's tied up in Ukraine and the West won't accept it. China has real leverage—it's Iran's biggest trading partner, it has billions invested in Pakistan, and it's not a party to the conflict itself.
Luke
Though we should be careful about the word "leverage." China has economic ties to Iran, yes. But whether that translates to the ability to enforce a peace agreement is a different question. That's still speculative.
Mark
What are the actual obstacles to a permanent deal?
Mimi
Lebanon is the big one. Iran and Pakistan say it has to be included in the ceasefire. Israel says no. There's also the Strait of Hormuz—Iran has blockaded it—and Iran's nuclear program. These aren't small disagreements.
Luke
And we don't know yet if China is actually willing to take on a formal guarantor role. The reporting says it's been asked, and that officials think it's likely. But China hasn't committed publicly. That's a significant unknown.
Mark
So the ceasefire is real, but everything beyond it is still very much in question.
Mimi
Exactly. The temporary truce is a fact. What comes next requires all sides to make what the sources call "painful compromises." That's the hard part.
Il Polso
- A war that erupted on February 28 has killed thousands and fractured global markets, creating desperate pressure on all parties to find an exit before the damage deepens further.
- The ceasefire nearly collapsed on the night it was announced — only a direct intervention by Beijing with Tehran pulled Iran back from the brink at the last moment.
- China and Russia's joint veto of a UN Security Council resolution on the Strait of Hormuz signaled Beijing's alignment with Iran's position, even as it publicly claims only a mediating role.
- Negotiations face three near-impossible fault lines: Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, its nuclear program, and whether Lebanon will be included in any final agreement — a condition Israel flatly rejects.
- Beijing is being asked to serve as the guarantor of any permanent deal, a role of enormous consequence that China appears willing to play only from behind closed doors, wary of being publicly drawn into the conflict.
In the shadow of a war that has claimed thousands of lives since February, Islamabad has become an unlikely crossroads of diplomacy — where Iranian and American envoys prepare to negotiate peace, and where the quiet hand of Beijing has already proven decisive. Pakistan brokered a fragile two-week ceasefire, but it was China's eleventh-hour intervention with Tehran that kept the agreement from unraveling. Now, as the harder work of permanent peace begins, the world watches to see whether China — bound to Iran by trade and to Pakistan by brotherhood — will step from the shadows to hold a lasting settlement together.
Islamabad has become the unlikely epicenter of a diplomatic effort to end a war that has killed thousands and rattled the global economy since fighting broke out on February 28. Iranian and American envoys are preparing to meet there, but the story of how those talks became possible belongs as much to Beijing as to Pakistan.
Pakistan secured a temporary two-week ceasefire and earned international recognition for doing so. Yet both Pakistani officials and American leadership have acknowledged something quieter and more consequential: China made the breakthrough possible. On the night the agreement nearly fell apart, Beijing intervened directly with Tehran. President Trump confirmed publicly that China had been instrumental in bringing Iran to the table. Pakistan's role was central — but not sufficient. The final push came from Beijing.
As negotiations move into harder territory, China's involvement is expected to deepen. Pakistani diplomats say Beijing has been asked to serve as guarantor of any permanent agreement — a position of enormous weight. Iran wanted a guarantor, and Russia was never a viable option, consumed by Ukraine and unacceptable to Western players. China, by contrast, is ideally placed: Iran's largest trading partner, a close ally of Pakistan through the Belt and Road initiative, and a power with deep ties to both sides of the conflict.
The substance ahead is formidable. Pakistan's negotiating team must navigate disputes over the Strait of Hormuz — effectively blockaded by Iran since the war began — Iran's nuclear program, and the status of Lebanon, which Iran and Pakistan insist must be included in any deal while Israel refuses. The gaps between positions remain vast.
China has been working steadily, if quietly. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has made 26 calls to regional counterparts, and Beijing's Middle East envoy has traveled repeatedly through the area. Hours before the ceasefire was announced, China and Russia jointly vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on the Strait of Hormuz — a clear signal of support for Iran. Yet Beijing has been careful not to claim credit, and analysts suggest it may resist stepping openly into a guarantor role, preferring to work behind closed doors.
Whether the ceasefire becomes permanent depends on whether all sides can move past positions each considers non-negotiable — and whether China, holding leverage over Iran and deep ties to Pakistan, can hold any agreement together when the pressure mounts again.
Islamabad is now the unlikely center of a diplomatic effort that could reshape the Middle East. Iranian and American envoys are preparing to meet there to negotiate an end to a war that has killed thousands and sent shockwaves through the global economy since fighting erupted on February 28. But the story of how those talks came to be—and what might make them stick—belongs as much to Beijing as it does to Islamabad.
Pakistan clinched a temporary two-week ceasefire between the warring sides, and for that it has earned international recognition. Yet Pakistani officials and American leadership alike are now saying something quieter but more consequential: China made the breakthrough possible. On the night the agreement nearly collapsed, according to a senior Pakistani official involved in the negotiations, Beijing intervened directly with Tehran. "On ceasefire night, hopes were fading, but China stepped in and convinced Iran to agree to a preliminary ceasefire," the official said. President Trump confirmed the same point publicly, telling news agencies that China had been instrumental in bringing Iran to the table. Pakistan's efforts were central to the process, the official acknowledged, but they were not enough. The final push came from Beijing.
Now, as Pakistan prepares to shepherd both sides through the harder work ahead, China's role is expected to deepen. Pakistani diplomats say Beijing has been asked to serve as a guarantor for any permanent agreement—a position of enormous weight in these negotiations. Iran, according to sources familiar with the discussions, specifically wanted a guarantor. Russia, the alternative candidate, was never viable; it is consumed by its war in Ukraine and would never be accepted by Western players, particularly the European Union. China, by contrast, is ideally positioned. It is Iran's largest trading partner, a relationship that has deepened through years of American sanctions. It has poured billions into Pakistani infrastructure as part of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road initiative, and the two nations describe themselves as "ironclad brothers." Beijing shares deep ties with both sides of the conflict.
The substance of what lies ahead is formidable. Pakistan has assembled a team of experts to guide negotiations on issues that have already proven intractable: the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blockaded since the war began; the future of Iran's nuclear program; and the status of Lebanon, which Iran and Pakistan insist must be included in any ceasefire while Israel has refused to accept that condition. Israel has continued striking what it says are Iranian-backed targets in Lebanon, though the United States has announced separate talks in Washington next week between Israeli and Lebanese officials. The gaps between the positions of the warring sides remain vast.
China's diplomatic machinery has been working steadily, if largely out of public view. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has made 26 calls to counterparts in relevant countries, and Beijing's Middle East envoy has traveled repeatedly through the region. Hours before the ceasefire was announced, China and Russia jointly vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on reopening the Strait of Hormuz—a move clearly designed to signal support for Iran's position. Yet Beijing has been careful not to claim credit or to announce any formal role. Officials say China is mediating and encouraging an end to hostilities, nothing more. Analysts and diplomats suggest that China may be reluctant to step openly into a guarantor role in the coming weeks, preferring to work behind closed doors. "They have their own considerations, they do not want to be dragged into this conflict publicly," one source said.
What happens next depends on whether all sides can move past positions that feel, to each of them, non-negotiable. Pakistani officials acknowledge the difficulty plainly: "Negotiations are very complicated, sensitive. To reach consensus all sides will have to make painful compromises and concessions." The temporary ceasefire bought time. Whether it becomes permanent depends on whether Pakistan can navigate the fractious terrain ahead, and whether China—the power with leverage over Iran, ties to Pakistan, and no direct stake in the conflict's outcome—can hold the agreement together when the pressure mounts again.
Citazioni salienti
On ceasefire night, hopes were fading, but China stepped in and convinced Iran to agree to a preliminary ceasefire— Senior Pakistani official familiar with negotiations
Negotiations are very complicated, sensitive. To reach consensus all sides will have to make painful compromises and concessions— Pakistani diplomatic source
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War & Conflict