Armenia cannot belong to both the EU and Russia's military alliance
In a summit held in Yerevan, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney became the first Canadian leader to attend a European Political Community gathering, a quiet but consequential signal that the old certainties anchoring Western alliances are giving way to new arrangements. As the United States withdraws troops from Europe and retreats from its traditional role as guarantor of global order, nations large and small are searching for new tables at which to sit. Armenia, the summit's host, embodies this search most acutely — a small country of three million navigating between a Russian past it is slowly leaving and a European future it has not yet secured. What is being woven in Yerevan is not a new empire but something more fragile and perhaps more honest: a world learning to organize itself without a single anchor.
- Canada's historic appearance at the EPC is a direct response to Trump-era trade disruptions — Carney is not visiting Europe out of sentiment, but out of strategic necessity.
- Armenia is hosting a summit while standing at a civilizational crossroads, having frozen its Russian military alliance and formally declared its intention to join the EU, all before a high-stakes June election.
- Putin has drawn a hard line, warning Armenia it cannot belong to both the EU and the Russian-led CSTO — a warning that hangs over every handshake in Yerevan.
- A peace deal with Azerbaijan would reopen Armenia's long-closed borders with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, but it requires constitutional changes that remain politically explosive at home.
- European leaders, led by a Macron treating his attendance as a state visit, must cheer Pashinyan's democratic pivot without pushing so hard they destabilize the fragile peace process.
- The EPC itself — once dismissed as a consolation prize for EU hopefuls — has quietly become the forum where the post-American security architecture is being imagined into existence.
Mark Carney arrived in Yerevan as the first Canadian prime minister ever to attend a European Political Community summit, a gathering that has grown into one of Europe's most consequential forums for nations reckoning with a world in which the United States is no longer the default answer. Canada's presence signals a deliberate strategic pivot: with the Trump administration pulling troops from Germany and withdrawing from traditional alliances, Carney is building new trade and diplomatic partnerships across the Atlantic. This is not about formal integration — Canadian diplomats have been explicit on that point — but about finding a place in a network that is being rewoven in real time.
The host country, Armenia, carries the summit's deepest drama. For decades, this nation of three million depended on Russia for its military security and political orientation. Now Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is steering toward Europe — Armenia formally declared its intention to apply for EU membership last year, and the day after the EPC it will hold its first bilateral summit with Brussels, seeking funding for democratic institutions and visa liberalization. The timing is charged: Pashinyan's party faces parliamentary elections in June, and a strong European showing could give him the capital to continue pursuing peace with Azerbaijan, a process that would reopen Armenia's long-closed borders with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.
But the limits of Armenia's pivot are real. Putin warned in April that Armenia cannot belong to both the EU and the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation — a stark either/or that Armenia has not yet fully answered. Armenia froze its CSTO membership in 2024, but full withdrawal would mean a rupture with Moscow at a moment when Russia is already strained by the war in Ukraine. European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron whose attendance is being treated as a state visit, must navigate carefully: encouraging Pashinyan's democratic direction without destabilizing the fragile peace process that the entire region is watching.
The EPC itself, founded in 2022 and initially dismissed as a waiting room for EU hopefuls, has become something more useful — a place where countries can talk about security and prosperity outside the formal structures that no longer fit the moment. Canada's arrival at this table is the clearest sign yet that the forum has outgrown its origins. The world is reorganizing itself, and Yerevan, for one weekend, is where that reorganization is visible.
Mark Carney will walk into a summit in Yerevan on Monday as the first Canadian prime minister ever to attend a meeting of the European Political Community—a gathering that has quietly become one of Europe's most consequential forums for countries trying to figure out who they are when the United States is no longer the answer.
Canada's presence at the 48-plus nation assembly signals something larger than protocol. Carney has made clear that he is building a new architecture of trade and diplomatic partnerships after the Trump administration's withdrawal from American markets. The timing is deliberate. As the U.S. prepares to pull more than 5,000 troops out of Germany over the next year and tensions with Iran threaten to destabilize western economies, countries are scrambling to imagine what security and prosperity look like without Washington as the anchor. Canada's decision to show up in Armenia is a statement: there are other tables now.
But Armenia itself is the real story. The country of 3 million people is caught in a transformation that could reshape the entire Caucasus. For decades, Armenia depended on Russia—militarily, economically, politically. Now Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is pursuing what his government calls diversification, which in practice means slowly pulling Armenia into the European orbit. Last year, Armenia formally declared its intention to apply for EU membership. It signed a comprehensive partnership agreement with Brussels in 2017. The day after hosting the EPC, Armenia will hold its first bilateral summit with the EU, hoping for additional funding to strengthen democratic institutions and visa liberalization for its citizens.
The stakes are immediate and personal. Pashinyan's Civil Contract party faces parliamentary elections in June, and a strong showing at the EPC—essentially a pre-election rally hosted by European leaders—could give him the political capital to continue pursuing peace with Azerbaijan, Armenia's longtime adversary. Three opposition parties more sympathetic to Russia are waiting to challenge him. The peace process itself hinges on Armenia changing its constitution, which Azerbaijan claims contains territorial claims against it. Armenia denies this, but the constitutional question remains unresolved. If a peace agreement is reached, Armenia's two long borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey—closed since the 1990s—would reopen, fundamentally reshaping the region's trade and movement.
But there is a hard limit to how far Armenia can go. Vladimir Putin said in April that Armenia cannot belong to both the EU and the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, the military alliance that has anchored Armenian security for decades. "It's simply impossible by definition," Putin told Pashinyan. Armenia froze its CSTO membership in 2024, but full withdrawal would be a rupture with Moscow at a moment when Russia is already stretched thin by the war in Ukraine. Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe who specializes in the Caucasus, put it plainly: European leaders will have to walk a careful line in Yerevan. They will be cheering on Pashinyan's re-election while also pushing for a more robust, less polarized Armenia—one that can actually survive the peace agreement that is coming.
Emmanuel Macron has been the European champion of closer ties with Armenia, and his attendance at the summit is being treated as a state visit. He is expected to attend a concert in Gyumri, Armenia's second city, a gesture of solidarity that carries weight in a region where symbols matter. The EPC itself, created in 2022, has evolved into something more useful than many expected. It was initially dismissed as a consolation prize for countries waiting for EU membership. But European leaders keep showing up, which suggests the forum serves a purpose that formal EU structures do not—a place to talk, bilaterally and in groups, about how to build security and prosperity when the old certainties have collapsed.
Canada's arrival at this table is not about membership or formal integration. Canadian diplomats have been clear on that point. It is about recognizing that the world has shifted, and that the networks that held it together are being rewoven. Carney is coming to Yerevan to find his place in that new architecture.
Notable Quotes
European leaders will have to walk a fine line in Yerevan. As they hold what looks like a pre-election rally for Pashinyan, they must also have a bigger conversation about building a more robust and less polarised Armenia.— Thomas de Waal, Carnegie Europe
Armenia and the EU have never been closer.— Marta Kos, EU enlargement commissioner
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Canada's attendance at this summit matter? It's not like Canada is suddenly becoming European.
No, but it's signaling that Canada sees Europe as a necessary partner now in a way it didn't before. When the U.S. is withdrawing troops and pulling back from trade, countries have to find other anchors. Canada is saying: we're looking east, not just south.
And Armenia is hosting this because it's trying to do the same thing—move away from Russia?
Exactly. But Armenia can't just flip a switch. It's still in Russian military alliances. Putin has already told Pashinyan that Armenia can't have it both ways. So Pashinyan is trying to move slowly, to diversify, while keeping enough of the Russian relationship intact that he doesn't get isolated.
What happens if he loses the June elections?
Then the opposition takes over, and they're more sympathetic to Russia. The whole European pivot stalls. The peace agreement with Azerbaijan might not happen. The borders stay closed. Armenia stays trapped.
So this EPC summit is really just a show of support for Pashinyan before the vote?
It's that, yes. But it's also something bigger. European leaders are trying to figure out how to build a security architecture that doesn't depend on the U.S. Armenia is a test case. If they can help Armenia actually transition away from Russia without it collapsing, they've proven something important.
What's the hardest part of that transition?
The constitution. Azerbaijan says Armenia's constitution has territorial claims against it. Armenia says it doesn't. But until that's resolved, the peace agreement can't be fully signed. And without the peace agreement, the borders stay closed, and Armenia stays economically isolated. So Pashinyan has to convince his own parliament to change the constitution—which is politically explosive—while also convincing Europe that he's serious about democracy and human rights.