Money buys visibility, not necessarily votes.
In the waning hours of California's gubernatorial primary, three figures — a billionaire idealist, a seasoned attorney general, and a media-savvy conservative — compete for two spots in November, raising an ancient question about democratic life: whether wealth, in sufficient quantity, can substitute for the slower, harder work of building trust and coalition. Tom Steyer's extraordinary spending has purchased saturation but not yet persuasion, while Xavier Becerra has quietly assembled the institutional architecture that often decides close races. The outcome will tell us something not only about California's future leadership, but about the limits of fortune as a political instrument.
- Steyer has spent more than any self-funded California candidate in inflation-adjusted history, yet polls show him potentially finishing third — a result that would almost certainly close the door on his electoral ambitions.
- Becerra absorbed Eric Swalwell's entire political operation after Swalwell's abrupt withdrawal, gaining hundreds of donors, major institutional endorsements, and a commanding lead among liberal voters who should have been Steyer's natural constituency.
- Steyer's campaign turned sharply negative in its final week, branding Becerra 'Big Oil Becerra' with truck billboards and attack ads, while Becerra's team fired back with a cease-and-desist letter alleging libel.
- Steve Hilton, buoyed by a Trump endorsement, has consolidated Republican support and sits within striking distance of second place, making the top-two outcome genuinely uncertain hours before ballots close.
- If two Democrats advance, California Democrats face the prospect of a costly, months-long intra-party general election battle — draining resources from competitive U.S. House races across the state.
California's race to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom has narrowed into a genuine three-way contest, with the final polling averages separating Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra, and Steve Hilton by fewer than three percentage points. Under the state's top-two primary system, only two candidates advance to November regardless of party — a rule that has injected unusual urgency into the closing days of the campaign.
Steyer, the reformed hedge-fund billionaire turned climate activist, has spent more on this race than Meg Whitman spent on her record-setting 2010 self-funded campaign, adjusted for inflation. His pitch — that his wealth makes him uniquely incorruptible, a "class traitor" willing to fight the industries that enriched him — has driven months of television advertising and a platform centered on single-payer health care, a wealth tax, and climate action. Yet internal polling shows him trailing badly among self-identified liberals, the very voters his message was designed to reach.
Becerra's strength has been built on consolidation rather than charisma. When Eric Swalwell withdrew from the race amid sexual assault allegations, his institutional backers — including a major dialysis provider, the California Medical Association, and the state's professional firefighters — moved quickly to Becerra, along with more than 500 small-dollar donors. That transfer of political machinery, combined with Democratic establishment endorsements, gave Becerra a durable lead that Steyer's spending has struggled to erode.
In desperation, Steyer's campaign spent its final week attacking Becerra as the oil industry's preferred candidate, deploying mobile billboards and a barrage of press releases. Becerra responded with a cease-and-desist letter, and the acrimony between the two Democrats has raised the prospect that if both advance, the general election could become an expensive, months-long intra-party war — one Steyer has already shown he is willing to fund almost without limit.
Hilton, meanwhile, has followed a straighter path. Trump's April endorsement helped him consolidate Republican voters, and as fears of a two-Republican general election faded, the GOP coalesced around him. Democrats privately prefer a Becerra-Hilton or Steyer-Hilton matchup in November, which would guarantee a party-line victory and free resources for competitive House races. What remains unresolved, as ballots close, is whether Steyer's fortune will prove sufficient to overcome the quieter, more durable power of institutional politics — or whether this race will confirm that even extraordinary wealth has a ceiling.
California's governor's race is heading into its final days as a three-way scramble, and the outcome will determine not just who leads the state but whether one of America's wealthiest political operatives has finally hit a spending ceiling that even his fortune cannot overcome.
The contest to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom has been marked by unexpected turns—Eric Swalwell's campaign collapsed under sexual assault allegations, and fears that two Republicans might lock out all Democrats from the general election have largely evaporated. But as voters prepared to mail in or deliver their ballots by Tuesday, June 2, the real drama centered on Tom Steyer, the reformed hedge-fund billionaire whose television ads have saturated the airwaves for months. According to polling averages, Steyer sits at 21.5 percent, trailing former state attorney general Xavier Becerra at 23.8 percent and Steve Hilton, a former Fox News personality and British political operative, at 23.3 percent. The race is close enough that the latest Emerson College survey shows Steyer edging into second place, but the trajectory suggests he could finish third—a position that would likely end his electoral ambitions for good.
Steyer's spending has been staggering. In inflation-adjusted dollars, he has outpaced even Meg Whitman's record-breaking self-funded 2010 gubernatorial campaign, which ended in a decisive loss to Jerry Brown. His 2020 presidential bid, which finished a distant third in South Carolina, offered a preview of what happens when even unlimited wealth cannot translate into electoral success. This time, Steyer has built his pitch around the idea that his unimaginable wealth makes him incorruptible—a "class traitor" willing to fight the very industries that enriched him. He has championed single-payer health care and a proposed California wealth tax, but his signature issue remains climate activism, a cause he has championed for over a decade.
As the primary tightened, Steyer's campaign shifted into attack mode, targeting Becerra as the oil industry's preferred candidate. In the final week, Steyer's team deployed billboards on trucks describing Becerra as "fueled by Chevron," released press statements branding him "Big Oil Becerra," and aired new advertisements criticizing his acceptance of petroleum industry support. The strategy reflects Steyer's desperation: internal polling from the Public Policy Institute of California showed Becerra leading among self-identified liberals by a commanding 42 percent to 23 percent—territory that should have been Steyer's natural base.
Becerra's strength stems partly from his inheritance of Eric Swalwell's political machinery. When Swalwell withdrew, major institutional backers—DaVita, a massive dialysis provider; the California Medical Association; and the California Professional Firefighters Association—quickly shifted their support to Becerra. More than 500 of Swalwell's small donors followed suit, a mass defection that no other candidate matched. Becerra has also benefited from endorsements by the Democratic establishment and a surge in social media support, consolidating the party's institutional weight behind him.
Steve Hilton's path has been simpler. Trump's endorsement in early April gave him momentum to consolidate Republican voters, and as the prospect of two Republicans facing off in November faded, GOP voters coalesced around him. Democrats not firmly committed to either Becerra or Steyer would prefer a Becerra-Hilton or Steyer-Hilton matchup in November, guaranteeing a party-line victory and freeing resources for more competitive races, particularly the fight for U.S. House seats.
The race has grown increasingly bitter. Steyer has hammered Becerra over a slowly developing scandal involving former Becerra aides and consultants who allegedly embezzled hundreds of thousands of dollars from a campaign account, resulting in federal plea deals and indictments. Becerra himself has not been implicated, but the issue has provided Steyer with a line of attack. Becerra's campaign responded with a cease-and-desist letter, accusing Steyer of libel. The acrimony between the two leading Democrats suggests that if both advance to November under California's top-two primary system, the general election could stretch into a costly, months-long battle—one that Steyer has already demonstrated a willingness to fund almost without limit. What remains unclear is whether his money will finally prove insufficient to overcome the political machinery and institutional backing that has coalesced behind his rivals.
Notable Quotes
Steyer's pitch is that his wealth makes him an un-buyable 'class traitor' devoted to battling the very interests that made him rich.— Campaign positioning
Becerra's campaign sent a cease-and-desist letter to Steyer, claiming attacks over embezzlement allegations are libelous.— Becerra campaign
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Steyer's spending matter if he's polling third? Isn't money supposed to buy elections?
Money buys visibility, not necessarily votes. Steyer has flooded the airwaves, but Becerra inherited an entire political operation—donors, endorsements, institutional backing—when Swalwell dropped out. That's harder to replicate with ads alone.
So what's Steyer's actual argument to voters?
He's betting on climate and his outsider status. He's trying to tell progressives that Becerra is captured by oil money, that only Steyer can't be bought. But the polling shows liberals prefer Becerra anyway, which suggests his pitch isn't landing.
What happens if Steyer finishes third?
His electoral career probably ends. He ran for president in 2020 and finished third in South Carolina. A third-place finish here, despite spending more than anyone else, would be a definitive statement that his wealth can't overcome political reality.
And if two Democrats advance instead of a Republican?
Then Becerra and Steyer fight for six more months in the general election. Steyer has shown he'll spend whatever it takes. That could turn into the most expensive gubernatorial race in California history.
Why does Trump's endorsement matter so much for Hilton?
It consolidated Republican voters. Before Trump backed him, there was real fear that two Republicans would lock out all Democrats. Trump's endorsement signaled to GOP voters that Hilton was the Republican to support, and they coalesced around him.
Is there any scenario where Steyer wins?
Technically yes—if he surges in the final days and finishes in the top two. But the trend line is against him. He's spent more than anyone else and is still behind. At this point, he'd need a significant shift in the final week.