Five years after Britain chose to leave the European Union, the country finds itself neither broken nor whole — the predicted economic collapse did not come, yet the union itself strains under pressures the referendum unleashed rather than resolved. What began as a vote about membership in a trading bloc has become a reckoning with regional inequality, national identity, and the fragility of political settlements long taken for granted. In Northern Ireland, a peace built over decades now bears the weight of new borders and old grievances; in Scotland, a democratic majority that voted to remain
New Statesman
· Jun 22, 2021
· governance
· 3 min read
High
Sourcing: Verified
Brexit's unfinished business: Five years on, UK still reckons with divisions
Sectarian divisions in Northern Ireland have been reawoken by border conflicts stemming from Brexit implementation.
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Economy & Finance
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Bias & Framing
⚖
Article frames Brexit as economically resilient but politically divisive, emphasizing unforeseen consequences in Northern Ireland and Scotland while crediting Conservative electoral success to anti-EU sentiment.
Bias Direction
center-left
Confidence
MED
Mixed framing: acknowledges Brexit's economic resilience (counter to initial predictions) but emphasizes negative political/social consequences (sectarian divisions, Scottish independence momentum). Uses 'unfinished business' framing to suggest ongoing instability. Presents Conservative success as tactical rather than substantive.
fractured the UK
divisions that have been reawoken
hard-won peace
ill-fated procurement programme
doomed Cameron government
Brexit in name only
Voices of Leave voters explaining their continued support
Perspectives from those who believe Brexit benefits outweigh costs
Northern Irish unionists' views on the protocol
Scottish unionists' counter-arguments to independence
Economic benefits cited by Brexit supporters beyond vaccine procurement
Geopolitical Impact
🌎
Five years post-Brexit, UK faces persistent internal divisions in Northern Ireland and Scotland despite economic resilience, reshaping British politics and threatening established peace frameworks.
Escalation Risk
moderate
Confidence
HIGH
United Kingdom
Northern Ireland
Scotland
European Union
Ireland
Brexit has consolidated Conservative political dominance domestically while fragmenting the UK's internal cohesion. The decision to leave the EU has shifted power dynamics within the UK, empowering Scottish and Northern Irish independence movements and weakening Westminster's authority in these regions. EU-UK relations remain strained despite trade agreements.
Similar to the Irish partition of 1921, Brexit has reopened historical sectarian and nationalist divisions that were previously managed through supranational frameworks (Good Friday Agreement, EU membership), risking renewed communal tensions.
Economic Lens
📈
Five years post-Brexit, UK economy shows resilience despite weakening, but political realignment and sectarian tensions in Northern Ireland pose long-term economic risks through reduced trade efficiency and regional instability.
Market Signal
mixed
Confidence
MED
Trade and logistics
Financial services
Manufacturing
Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
Regional development (Northern Ireland, Scotland)
Consumers face mixed outcomes: potential benefits from independent vaccine procurement and regulatory flexibility, offset by trade friction costs, supply chain delays, and reduced cross-border mobility. Regional disparities may widen, particularly affecting Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Government may need to address Northern Ireland border friction through revised trade arrangements, consider devolution concessions to Scotland to prevent independence movements that could further fragment UK economy, and evaluate regulatory divergence strategy to balance autonomy against trade costs.