After months of contraction, Bitcoin has climbed back above $79,000, carrying the broader cryptocurrency market with it in a move that analysts are cautiously interpreting as a potential turning point in the cycle. On-chain sentiment metrics have shifted into positive territory for the first time in months, and major altcoins are pressing against resistance levels that, if broken, could confirm a broader recovery. Yet history offers a sobering counterweight: similar signals in early 2022 preceded a resumption of decline, reminding observers that markets rarely announce their reversals with cer
Bitcoin Approaches $80K as Altcoins Test Resistance Levels
The bulls were back, but the question remained whether they could hold.
When you say Bitcoin cleared $78,333, what makes that number matter more than any other price it could have hit?
It's a level where sellers had previously defended hard—a resistance point. When an asset breaks above a level where it's been rejected before, it signals that the balance of power has shifted. Buyers are now willing to pay more than sellers are willing to accept.
And the NUPL metric turning positive—is that something regular traders should care about, or is it more of a specialist's signal?
It's actually quite fundamental. It's telling you that, in aggregate, people who bought Bitcoin are now sitting on gains rather than losses. That changes behavior. When you're underwater, you're desperate to sell on any bounce. When you're profitable, you can hold and even buy more.
But you mentioned March 2022 as a cautionary tale. What happened then?
The same neutral signal appeared, and traders got excited. But it turned out to be a false dawn. The selling pressure returned and the market rolled over. So this time, even though the technicals look good, there's a memory of how quickly things can reverse.
If Bitcoin falls back below that 20-day moving average, how bad does it get?
It doesn't necessarily get catastrophic, but it breaks the bullish narrative. The price would likely drift down toward $70,934. More importantly, it would signal that the buyers don't have the conviction they appeared to have. That loss of confidence spreads to altcoins fast.
Why are all these altcoins moving at the same time? Is it just because Bitcoin moved, or is something else happening?
Bitcoin usually leads, but what's interesting here is that altcoins are testing resistance at their own levels simultaneously. That suggests independent buying pressure, not just mechanical following. People are actually willing to take risk on these assets again.
What would make you believe this rally is real and not another false start?
Time and price. If Bitcoin holds above $78,333 for days or weeks, if it actually reaches $84,000, if altcoins sustain their breaks above resistance—then you have conviction. Right now it's still early. The market is asking a question. We're waiting for the answer.
El Pulso
- Bitcoin's breach of the $78,333 resistance level has ignited fresh optimism, with analysts projecting a potential run toward $84,000 if the level holds.
- The adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric turning positive for the first time in months has given bulls a concrete data point to rally around, with one analyst declaring the cycle's 'real rally' has begun.
- A historical red flag looms: the Bitcoin Bull Score Index entering neutral territory mirrors a pattern from March 2022 that preceded a sharp reversal, keeping cautious traders on high alert.
- Across the altcoin landscape, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, and others are simultaneously testing key resistance ceilings, suggesting coordinated accumulation rather than isolated speculation.
- The market's psychology appears to be shifting from selling into strength to buying on weakness — a subtle but meaningful change in posture that analysts are watching as the true test of this rally's durability.
After months of contraction, Bitcoin has climbed back above $79,000, carrying the broader cryptocurrency market with it in a move that analysts are cautiously interpreting as a potential turning point in the cycle. On-chain sentiment metrics have shifted into positive territory for the first time in months, and major altcoins are pressing against resistance levels that, if broken, could confirm a broader recovery. Yet history offers a sobering counterweight: similar signals in early 2022 preceded a resumption of decline, reminding observers that markets rarely announce their reversals with certainty.
Bitcoin climbed past $79,000 this week, bouncing sharply off the $60,000 floor and clearing the $78,333 resistance level — a threshold analysts say could open the path to $84,000 if sustained. The move prompted serious questions about whether the worst of the downturn had passed.
What gave the rally added weight was a shift in underlying metrics. The adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss indicator turned positive for the first time in months, leading one CryptoQuant analyst to declare that Bitcoin's downtrend had genuinely ended. A short squeeze setup — where forced buying could accelerate gains — was also identified as a potential catalyst.
Caution, however, was not far behind. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index entered neutral territory for the first time since the bear market began, which sounds encouraging until one recalls that the same signal appeared briefly in March 2022 before the market resumed its decline. Analysts flagged the 20-day moving average near $73,758 as a critical support line; a fall below it could unravel the entire bullish setup and push prices toward $70,934.
The momentum extended across the altcoin market. Ethereum was eyeing $2,465 with potential upside to $2,800. XRP was pressing against a downtrend line, with a clean break pointing toward $2. Solana hovered near equilibrium, with $91 as the key level to clear. Binance Coin had already crossed $649 and was being watched for a push toward $687. Dogecoin, Cardano, Monero, and Bitcoin Cash were each positioned at their own inflection points.
Underneath the individual chart patterns, a broader shift in market psychology appeared to be taking hold — from selling into rallies to buying dips. Moving averages were flattening and momentum indicators were turning constructive. Still, analysts stopped well short of declaring victory, emphasizing that false breakouts remain a real risk and that the market had offered bulls an opening, not a guarantee.
Bitcoin climbed past $79,000 this week, a move that sent ripples through the broader cryptocurrency market and prompted analysts to ask whether the worst of the recent downturn has finally passed. The asset had bounced sharply off the $60,000 floor, and by Wednesday it had cleared the $78,333 resistance level—a threshold that, if held, could open the door to a rally all the way to $84,000. For traders watching the charts, the signal was unmistakable: the bulls were back.
What made this recovery noteworthy was not just the price movement itself, but what the underlying metrics suggested about investor sentiment. A measure called adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, which tracks the difference between total gains and losses held across all Bitcoin positions, had turned positive for the first time in months. An analyst at CryptoQuant, a platform that monitors on-chain activity, interpreted this shift as a sign that Bitcoin's downtrend had genuinely ended and that "the real rally of this cycle has begun." Another observer noted that Bitcoin appeared primed for a short squeeze—a technical setup where forced buying could accelerate the move higher.
Yet caution tempered the optimism. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index, which measures bullish momentum, had climbed into neutral territory for the first time since the bear market began. That sounds positive until you consider the precedent: in March 2022, the same index entered neutral territory for a week before rolling over and resuming its decline. One CryptoQuant contributor flagged this history as a reason to watch the critical support levels closely. If Bitcoin fell back below its 20-day moving average—sitting around $73,758—the entire bullish setup could unwind, potentially sending the price down toward $70,934.
The strength in Bitcoin was not isolated. Across the top ten cryptocurrencies, major altcoins were testing their own resistance levels, suggesting that aggressive buying was occurring at lower prices. Ethereum had bounced off its 20-day moving average and was eyeing a move toward $2,465, with potential upside to $2,800 if buyers could clear that hurdle. XRP was attempting to break above a downtrend line that had capped its recovery; a sustained break would signal a shift toward the $2 level. Solana was trading near its moving averages in a state of equilibrium, but if it could push above $91, it might climb toward $98 and potentially $117.
Binance Coin had already crossed above $649 on Wednesday and was being watched for a potential surge toward $687 and beyond. Dogecoin, the meme coin that has repeatedly surprised skeptics, was attempting a comeback from its moving averages, with the $0.10 level serving as a near-term target and $0.12 as a more ambitious goal. Bitcoin Cash had broken above its 50-day moving average, suggesting solid underlying demand, while Cardano and Monero were both positioned at critical junctures where a sustained push higher could signal new uptrends.
What tied these moves together was a shift in market psychology. Where investors had been selling into rallies—a sign of weakness—they now appeared to be buying dips, the hallmark of a market gaining confidence. The moving averages on several charts were flattening or beginning to slope upward, and momentum indicators were moving into positive territory. Yet the analysts covering these charts were careful not to declare victory. They emphasized the importance of watching support levels, the danger of false breakouts, and the possibility that these moves could peter out into range-bound trading rather than sustained rallies. The market had given bulls an opening, but whether they could capitalize on it remained an open question.
Citas Notables
The real rally of this cycle has begun— CryptoQuant analyst CW8900, interpreting positive NUPL metrics
Bitcoin appeared primed for a short squeeze, waiting for the bulls to light a fuse in a loaded cannon— Decode, crypto market intelligence platform