Bacio favored for Nunthorpe despite ground concerns as Asfoora bids farewell

The Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Friday afternoon will be remembered as Asfoora's farewell. The defending champion, who has won three Group 1 races in her career and dominated British racing two years ago when she took Royal Ascot by storm, will be retired after this race. She remains competitive—she ran narrowly behind American Affair at Goodwood recently—but the question hanging over her is whether she still possesses the edge that made her nearly unbeatable in 2025. At 8-1, she is not without a chance, but the betting market has moved elsewhere.

Wesley Ward's Bacio has captured the market's imagination and sits at the top of the odds at 100-30. The three-year-old colt announced himself decisively at Royal Ascot, where he justified strong support in the five-furlong handicap by controlling the race from start to finish, maintaining daylight between himself and every rival. He is a front-runner by nature, and York's flat, fast track should suit his style even better than Ascot did. The concern is weather. Bacio has run all his turf races on firm or good-to-firm ground, and the forecast rain threatens to soften the surface considerably. If he can handle the change in conditions, he has much in his favor, including a low draw that historical data suggests is advantageous in recent Nunthorpe runnings.

Mission Central and American Affair represent the strongest alternatives. Mission Central won the King Charles III at Royal Ascot in May, charging up the stands' side to snatch victory from Rayevka in the final strides. He has since disappointed in the July Cup at Newmarket over six furlongs, where he was eased down—a sign he may not have been suited to the extra distance. Back at five furlongs, he is capable of imposing himself on this race, though a question mark now hangs over his consistency. American Affair, trained by Jim Goldie, won that same King Charles III race at Ascot on good-to-firm ground and has been slowly rebuilding form since returning from nearly a year off the track. He won a Group 2 at Goodwood recently and looks to be approaching his best again, though he too has shown his best form on faster ground.

The weather creates opportunity for horses with proven soft-ground credentials. Rayevka, trained in France by Francis Henri Graffard, won a Group 3 on soft at Longchamp earlier in the year and was desperately unlucky not to hold on in the King Charles III at Ascot, where Mission Central's superior positioning on the stands' side proved decisive. She has a genuine chance, though her tendency to come from off the pace is not ideal on a track where front-runners typically have the advantage. Pershaada, a two-year-old trained by Richard Hannon, improved with each of her three turf runs and won a Group 3 at Goodwood. She receives a substantial weight allowance and should be respected despite her inexperience at this level.

Cover Up, trained by the Crisfords, finished three lengths behind American Affair in the King Charles III after meeting trouble in running. He has won on soft and yielding ground but prefers faster conditions. His come-from-behind tactics worked when he led near the line in a Group 2 at the Curragh, but executing that strategy on York's tight, flat five furlongs is notoriously difficult. Night Raider, fourth here last year, has been transformed by a gelding operation in the off-season and won a Group 2 at Haydock on good-to-soft ground, overcoming a slow start to win decisively. His form has dimmed at Royal Ascot and Goodwood since, but the return to a flat track offers hope he can recapture that winning form.

Among the longer-priced runners, Starlust finished third in the 2024 Nunthorpe and went on to win the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint later that year. He has been seen only twice in 2025 and has struggled to recapture his form, though a recent close fourth to Redorange in a course-and-distance Listed race in July suggested he is moving in the right direction. Jm Jungle, trained by the Quinns, won a Group 2 on good-to-soft at Goodwood in 2025 and now runs in blinkers. The expected rain could provide him with the ground conditions he needs to be competitive.

The betting tip favors Bacio, with the caveat that he must handle the softer ground. His low draw, his front-running style, and York's suitability to that approach all work in his favor. But the weather forecast has genuinely muddied the waters. Many of these runners have shown their best form on fast ground and have had uneven campaigns. If Bacio struggles with the underfoot conditions, American Affair and Mission Central are ready to pounce. Asfoora, meanwhile, will have one final chance to add to her legacy before stepping away from racing.