Allen vs. Duncan UFC Fight Night 290: Odds, Picks and Predictions

Saturday night in Las Vegas, two middleweight fighters will step into the octagon at the Meta Apex for what amounts to a coin flip. Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan meet in the main event of UFC Fight Night 290, a five-round bout that pits Allen's recent momentum against Duncan's technical advantages and longer reach.

Allen arrives with genuine credentials. His record stands at 27 wins and 7 losses, and he has won three fights in a row. Most recently, in June, he took a unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan. Before that, in October 2025, he finished Reinier de Ridder in the fourth round by knockout at another Fight Night main event. Over his past six outings, Allen has gone the distance in five of them, winning three and losing two. He is a wrestler at heart—he averages 1.52 takedowns per fight with a 41 percent accuracy rate, and he has recorded 1.06 submissions on average, meaning he is always hunting for a finish once he gets his opponent to the mat.

Duncan, by contrast, has been even more dominant in his recent run. His record is 15 wins and 2 losses, and he has won five consecutive fights. In July, he earned a unanimous decision over Jared Cannonier at another Fight Night card. During this winning streak, he has posted three decisions and two finishes, including a first-round knockout of Eryk Anders and a decision win over Roman Dolidze. The quality of his opposition has been slightly higher, and his striking numbers reflect a fighter who controls distance and tempo. He lands 4.45 significant strikes per minute compared to Allen's 3.75, and his accuracy on significant strikes sits at nearly 64 percent versus Allen's 59 percent.

The physical matchup favors Duncan in the standing game. Both men are six feet two inches tall, but Duncan possesses a four-inch reach advantage—a substantial edge in a sport where distance management determines outcomes. If Duncan can keep Allen at range and prevent him from closing the gap and dragging the fight to the canvas, Duncan's superior striking volume and accuracy will accumulate over five rounds. Allen, however, has the wrestling pedigree and submission threat that could change everything if he secures a takedown and controls the mat.

The betting market reflects the closeness of this matchup. Allen is listed at minus-115 on the moneyline, meaning a bettor would need to risk $115 to win $100. Duncan sits at minus-105, requiring a $105 bet to win $100. This is essentially even money—the books see no clear favorite. The real value, according to expert analysis, lies not in picking a winner but in predicting how the fight unfolds. Both fighters have a strong tendency to go the distance. Allen has reached a decision in five of his last six fights. Duncan has needed the judges to decide four of his past six bouts. Given these patterns, a bet on the fight going the distance pays plus-130, meaning a $100 bet returns $130 in profit. That is attractive odds for an outcome that both fighters' recent history suggests is likely.

For those willing to take a bigger swing, Duncan by decision or technical decision offers plus-450 odds, a 4.5-to-1 payout. It is a riskier proposition but one that aligns with Duncan's recent pattern of winning close fights while keeping opponents off their back. The prelims begin at 5 p.m. Eastern time, with the main card starting at 8 p.m. Eastern on Paramount+. The fight itself will likely be decided by whether Duncan's reach and striking can keep Allen from implementing his wrestling game plan, or whether Allen can close distance, secure takedowns, and impose his will on the mat.