A defeat would land squarely on the mayor's shoulders.
No coração da política fluminense, o prefeito Eduardo Paes enfrenta uma rebelião silenciosa entre seus próprios aliados, que temem que seu apoio ao candidato ao governo Felipe Santa Cruz — com apenas 2% nas pesquisas — comprometa não apenas uma eleição, mas o legado político de um líder já fragilizado. A lealdade partidária e a ambição de longo prazo colidem numa encruzilhada onde cada escolha carrega o peso de ciclos eleitorais futuros. É o dilema eterno do poder: saber quando segurar e quando soltar.
- Com Santa Cruz estagnado em 2% nas pesquisas, aliados de Paes enxergam numa derrota iminente não apenas o fim de uma candidatura, mas uma ferida aberta na liderança do prefeito no estado.
- A debandada já começou: o estrategista que elegeu Paes em 2020 migrou para o campo adversário, e figuras como Rodrigo Maia recusaram publicamente o convite para compor a chapa.
- Paes tentou ampliar a coalizão buscando o apoio de Lula ao PT, mas o ex-presidente manteve sua aposta em Freixo, deixando o prefeito sem o reforço nacional que precisava.
- Nos bastidores, cresce a pressão para que Paes abandone Santa Cruz e se alinhe a Rodrigo Neves, do PDT, embora insiders do PSD considerem essa virada improvável.
- Com 36% dos cariocas avaliando sua gestão como ruim ou péssima, Paes joga um jogo de alto risco: apostar num candidato inviável pode custar o capital político que ele precisa para 2026 e 2028.
No Rio de Janeiro, uma rebelião silenciosa se organiza dentro do próprio círculo do prefeito Eduardo Paes. O alvo é sua decisão de apoiar Felipe Santa Cruz, advogado e correligionário do PSD, na corrida ao governo do estado. O problema, segundo pessoas próximas ao próprio prefeito, é simples e brutal: Santa Cruz não tem como ganhar.
As pesquisas Ipec colocam Santa Cruz em apenas 2%, e esse número se tornou o centro de uma campanha de pressão crescente. Para os aliados de Paes, apoiar um candidato tão fraco seria expô-lo como um líder sem influência real na disputa estadual — num momento em que ele já enfrenta dificuldades em sua terceira gestão, marcada por déficits orçamentários e falhas no transporte público.
As deserções são concretas. Marcello Faulhaber, o estrategista que construiu a vitória de Paes em 2020, deixou a campanha de Santa Cruz e passou a trabalhar com Rodrigo Neves, do PDT, defendendo uma aliança entre os dois líderes. Rodrigo Maia, ex-presidente da Câmara dos Deputados, também hesita: seu pai, o ex-prefeito Cesar Maia, recusou o convite para ser vice de Santa Cruz, e Rodrigo explora há meses, sem sucesso, uma aproximação com Marcelo Freixo, do PSB.
No plano nacional, o presidente do PSD, Gilberto Kassab, navegou com mais pragmatismo: forjou uma aliança PSD-PT em Minas Gerais em torno de Alexandre Kalil, mas evitou movimento semelhante no Rio. O governador Cláudio Castro, do PL, chegou a se reunir com Kassab em São Paulo buscando um acordo que abriria a Paes o caminho para disputar o governo em 2026 — quando Castro estaria impedido de se reeleger. Kassab desconversou, reafirmando o apoio a Santa Cruz.
Por trás de toda essa movimentação está o jogo mais longo de Paes. Recém-empossado no comando do PSD fluminense, ele pensa na reeleição em 2024 e quer construir uma cadeia de sucessão que lhe garanta influência até 2028. Mas uma pesquisa Datafolha de abril revela a fragilidade de sua base: 36% dos cariocas avaliam sua gestão como ruim ou péssima, contra apenas 21% que a consideram ótima ou boa. Nesse cenário, apostar num candidato com 2% deixa de parecer estratégia e começa a soar como um risco que Paes talvez não possa mais se dar ao luxo de correr.
Inside Rio de Janeiro's political establishment, a quiet rebellion is forming against Mayor Eduardo Paes's most consequential bet. The target is his decision to back Felipe Santa Cruz, a lawyer and fellow member of the PSD party, for state governor. The problem, according to people close to Paes himself, is that Santa Cruz cannot win—and if he loses, the damage will land squarely on the mayor's shoulders.
Santa Cruz is polling at 2 percent, according to Ipec surveys. That number sits at the heart of the pressure campaign now underway. Paes's allies argue that backing a candidate with such weak support would expose the mayor as a political leader without real influence in Rio's gubernatorial race. The timing makes it worse. Paes is already struggling through his third term as mayor, battling budget shortfalls and transportation failures that have drained his credibility. To spend political capital on a doomed candidacy, they reason, would be to squander what little leverage he has left.
The defections have already begun. Marcello Faulhaber, the strategist who engineered Paes's 2020 mayoral victory, has stepped away from Santa Cruz's campaign. He is now working with Rodrigo Neves, the PDT's gubernatorial candidate, and has begun advocating for an alliance between Paes and Neves instead. Rodrigo Maia, the former president of Rio's Chamber of Deputies, is also hesitating. Paes had invited Maia's father, ex-Mayor Cesar Maia, to serve as Santa Cruz's running mate, but both father and son rejected the arrangement. Maia has been exploring his own conversations with Marcelo Freixo, the PSB candidate, for months without success.
Paes himself has tried to broaden the coalition. He reached out to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, hoping to win PT support for Santa Cruz, but Lula remained committed to backing Freixo. The national PSD leadership, under Gilberto Kassab, has taken a different approach. While Kassab worked with Lula to forge a PSD-PT alliance in Minas Gerais—strengthening the gubernatorial ticket of Alexandre Kalil—he has avoided similar entanglements in Rio. Last Thursday, Governor Cláudio Castro of the rival PL party met with Kassab in São Paulo, seeking an alliance that would benefit both men. If Castro won reelection and Paes backed him, the mayor would have a clear path to run for governor in 2026, when Castro would be term-limited. Kassab deflected, insisting that the PSD would not abandon Santa Cruz's candidacy.
Yet the pressure on Paes is real and multidirectional. In an interview two weeks ago, Santa Cruz declared his candidacy "irremovable," signaling he would not step aside. But several former officials from Paes's administration who are now running for federal or state office as PSD candidates have begun hedging their bets. Federal Deputy Pedro Paulo, for instance, has been courted by Castro to join his ticket as vice, and has also met twice this month with Rodrigo Neves. Neves and his allies are trying to restart talks with Paes, hoping to convince him to support the PDT candidate instead, though PSD insiders privately assess the odds of such an alliance as extremely remote.
Behind all this maneuvering lies Paes's longer game. He recently took control of the PSD's Rio branch and is now thinking about his own reelection campaign in 2024. He wants to position a trusted ally as his running mate—someone who could either assume the governorship in 2026 if Paes makes a bid for that office, or inherit the mayoralty in 2028. His current vice, Nilton Caldeira, does not enjoy Paes's full confidence because of his ties to Castro's circle. The calculation is clear: Paes is trying to build a political machine that extends beyond his current term. But a Datafolha poll from April shows how fragile his position has become. Thirty-six percent of Rio residents rate his administration as poor or terrible, while only 21 percent call it excellent or good. In that environment, backing a 2 percent candidate for governor looks less like a strategic move and more like a gamble Paes can no longer afford.
Notable Quotes
His candidacy is irremovable— Felipe Santa Cruz, in an interview with Globo
Castro knows that we will not back away from Santa Cruz's candidacy— Gilberto Kassab, PSD national president
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Paes back Santa Cruz at all if the numbers are this bad?
Because Santa Cruz is part of his inner circle, and Paes is trying to build something that lasts beyond his current term. He wants to control who comes next—whether that's him running for governor or someone he trusts taking over the city.
But his own people are abandoning the plan. Doesn't that tell him something?
It does. His strategist left. Maia won't commit. Even Lula sided with someone else. What it tells him is that loyalty to a weak candidate costs more than it's worth. But Paes seems determined to prove otherwise.
What about Castro's offer—the alliance that would clear his path to 2026?
That's the real temptation. If Paes backed Castro and Castro won, Paes could run for governor without a sitting governor blocking him. But Kassab, the national party leader, isn't letting him take that deal. He's protecting Santa Cruz, at least publicly.
Is Santa Cruz actually going to run?
He says his candidacy is irremovable. But in Brazilian politics, irremovable often means "until the moment it becomes impossible." Right now, Paes is holding the line. Whether he keeps holding it depends on whether his approval ratings get worse.
What's the real cost if Santa Cruz loses?
Paes becomes the guy who wasted his political capital on a losing bet. In a city where he's already struggling with budgets and buses, that's the kind of failure that ends careers.