Amid the turbulence of a fractured global economy, African nations are turning toward one another — not out of isolation, but out of hard-won pragmatism. The continent's most ambitious trade experiment, the AfCFTA, is advancing slowly but with growing conviction, even as 2024's contraction in intra-African exports reminds observers that aspiration and reality do not always move in step. South Africa's export surge and Afreximbank's oversubscribed $1.5 billion bond offering suggest that the world is watching Africa's self-determination with genuine interest — and that the continent may be writi
Africa builds regional trade resilience amid global uncertainty, DHL reports
There is growing momentum around regional trade and intra-continental trade.
Mark
Why does Africa need to trade more with itself when it's already selling to North America and Europe?
Mimi
Because those markets are volatile. A geopolitical flare-up, a tariff, a recession in the US—any of those can crater your exports overnight. If you're also selling to your neighbors, you have somewhere else to go. It's about not putting all your eggs in one basket.
Mark
But the data shows intra-African trade actually fell in 2024. Doesn't that contradict the whole premise?
Mimi
It does, which is why this is so interesting. The momentum is there—governments are talking about it, companies are interested—but the infrastructure isn't there yet. Customs procedures don't align. Banking systems don't talk to each other. It's like wanting to build a highway but the tools don't exist yet.
Mark
How long will it take to fix that?
Mimi
Decades, probably. The EU took decades. Africa has more countries, more languages, more competing interests. But there's a difference now: there's urgency. Climate shocks, geopolitical tensions, pandemic lessons—they've all made the case for resilience undeniable.
Mark
What does Afreximbank's bond issuance actually mean for this?
Mimi
It means investors believe in the story. When a bank can raise $1.5 billion and have people bid $3.8 billion for it, that's not just confidence in the bank—it's confidence that African trade and industrialization are real opportunities. That capital can now flow into the infrastructure and relationships that make regional trade possible.
Mark
So this is a turning point?
Mimi
It's a moment. The pieces are moving. Whether they align into something durable—that's still being written.
The Pulse
- Global volatility — currency swings, geopolitical fractures, pandemic-era supply shocks — has forced African businesses to stop assuming stability and start engineering resilience.
- A jarring contradiction sits at the heart of the story: South Africa's exports grew 11.6% to $65.6 billion, yet intra-African trade contracted 8.1% in 2024, exposing the gap between regional ambition and regional reality.
- The AfCFTA promises continental free trade, but harmonizing banking, customs, and regulatory systems across dozens of sovereign nations is a generational undertaking — one that took the EU decades and is still far from complete.
- Logistics operators like DHL are positioning themselves as navigators of this complexity, helping companies build contingency into their supply chains and pivot quickly when disruption strikes.
- Afreximbank's $1.5 billion bond drew $3.8 billion in demand from investors across four continents, signaling that global capital is beginning to treat Africa's growth trajectory as a credible bet rather than a speculative one.
Amid the turbulence of a fractured global economy, African nations are turning toward one another — not out of isolation, but out of hard-won pragmatism. The continent's most ambitious trade experiment, the AfCFTA, is advancing slowly but with growing conviction, even as 2024's contraction in intra-African exports reminds observers that aspiration and reality do not always move in step. South Africa's export surge and Afreximbank's oversubscribed $1.5 billion bond offering suggest that the world is watching Africa's self-determination with genuine interest — and that the continent may be writing a new chapter in its economic story.
Africa is quietly reshaping its economic architecture. Faced with currency swings, geopolitical fractures, and supply chain ruptures, the continent's nations are turning inward — building trade relationships with one another as a hedge against forces beyond their control.
The numbers are mixed. South Africa's exports climbed from $58.8 billion in 2023 to $65.6 billion by 2025, an 11.6% rise driven by Southern African producers finding new customers in North America. Yet intra-African trade contracted 8.1% in 2024, a reminder that regional growth and regional integration are not the same thing.
DHL Supply Chain's Bremer Pauw frames this as a turning point. Macroeconomic turbulence has become the default state since the pandemic, and companies now actively seek alternatives — backup routes, backup suppliers, and the resilience that comes from not depending on any single market. "There is growing momentum around regional trade blocs and intra-continental trade," he said, pointing to deepening conversations about how neighboring countries can source from one another.
The AfCFTA is the continent's most ambitious attempt to formalize this shift, but the complexity is staggering. Standardizing banking frameworks, customs procedures, and trade regulations across dozens of nations is not a task of months or years. Pauw noted that the EU required decades to achieve comparable harmonization. Progress is real, but incremental.
The broader signal came this week from Afreximbank, which announced its largest-ever bond issuance — $1.5 billion split across two tranches, drawing $3.8 billion in demand from investors in the UK, Europe, Asia, and the US. The pricing tightened significantly, and the bank's leadership read the result plainly: investors continue to place confidence in Africa's growth story. Whether that confidence translates into functioning regional supply chains remains the open question — but for the first time in a long while, the question feels worth asking.
Africa is quietly reshaping its economic architecture. Faced with the unpredictability of global trade—currency swings, geopolitical fractures, supply chain ruptures—the continent's nations are turning inward, building trade relationships with one another as a hedge against forces beyond their control.
The numbers tell part of the story. South Africa's exports climbed from $58.8 billion in 2023 to $65.6 billion by 2025, an 11.6% jump driven largely by Southern African producers finding new customers in North America. Yet the same period revealed a troubling undercurrent: intra-African trade actually contracted by 8.1% in 2024. The picture, then, is mixed—regional economies are growing, but not necessarily by trading with each other.
Bremer Pauw, chief commercial officer for DHL Supply Chain in the Middle East and Africa, frames this moment as a turning point. African governments and businesses, he argues, are moving past the assumption that the continent lacks appetite for deeper regional integration. The reality on the ground is different. "There is growing momentum around regional trade, trade blocs and intra-continental trade," Pauw told Business Times. "We are seeing more discussions around how neighbouring countries can source from one another and how regions can strengthen economic integration." The driver is pragmatic: macroeconomic turbulence—inflation, currency volatility, economic uncertainty—has become the default state since the pandemic. Companies now actively seek resilience. They want options. They want alternatives.
The African Continental Free Trade Area, or AfCFTA, represents the continent's most ambitious attempt to formalize this shift. Yet the work ahead is staggering. Standardizing central banking frameworks, customs procedures, regulations, and trade systems across dozens of nations is not a task of months or even years. Pauw notes that the European Union required decades to achieve comparable harmonization. "Sometimes we underestimate the complexity of what AfCFTA is trying to achieve," he said. Bottlenecks are being identified. Governments are being engaged. Progress is real but incremental.
The broader context matters. DHL's Global Connectedness Report projects that global goods trade will expand at roughly 2.6% annually through 2030, even amid rising geopolitical tension. That modest growth rate underscores why African nations are hedging their bets. When disruption in one market—whether from geopolitical events, climate shocks, or supply constraints—can ripple across an entire business, companies need backup routes and backup suppliers. Building those relationships takes time and trust. It also requires infrastructure: better logistics systems, more transparent customs processes, digital platforms that work across borders.
DHL and other logistics providers are positioning themselves as architects of this flexibility, helping customers embed contingency into their operations and respond quickly when conditions shift. Pauw urged African governments and regulators to focus on what they can control: making their own economies more competitive, more transparent, more attractive to both regional and global investors.
That confidence is being tested and, in some quarters, validated. This week, the African Export-Import Bank announced a $1.5 billion bond issuance—its largest ever and its first major dollar-denominated public debt offering since 2021. The market response was striking: demand reached $3.8 billion, nearly two and a half times the amount offered. Investors from the UK, Europe, Asia, and the US competed for the bonds, which were split into two tranches maturing in 2032 and 2036. The pricing tightened by 37.5 basis points per tranche, settling at 6.25% and 7.125% respectively. Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank's managing director of treasury and markets, read the signal clearly: "This successful issuance shows the confidence that investors continue to place in Afreximbank and in Africa's growth story." The bank's mandate—connecting capital to trade, industrialization, and growth across the continent—suddenly looks less like aspiration and more like a market reality. Whether that confidence translates into the hard work of building functioning regional supply chains remains the open question.
Notable Quotes
There is growing momentum around regional trade, trade blocs and intra-continental trade. We are seeing more discussions around how neighbouring countries can source from one another.— Bremer Pauw, DHL Supply Chain chief commercial officer
This successful issuance shows the confidence that investors continue to place in Afreximbank and in Africa's growth story.— Chandi Mwenebungu, Afreximbank managing director of treasury and markets
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