As the AFL trade period opened on November 4, 2020, the league found itself caught in the familiar tension between ambition and arithmetic — clubs wanting more than they were willing to give, and players caught in the space between. Essendon stood at the centre of a web connecting Carlton, the Western Bulldogs, and futures not yet written, while Adelaide faced a quieter but no less consequential deadline over Brad Crouch. In a year reshaped by pandemic and distance, the deals that define careers were being struck not in crowded rooms but over phone lines and digital portals, reminding the game
AFL trade period opens with Essendon's stalled Saad deal, Dunkley puzzle
The circuit could close, but theory and execution were different things.
Mark
So Essendon wants Adam Saad from Carlton, but they can't agree on the price. What's the actual disagreement?
Mimi
Essendon thinks Pick 8 is enough. Carlton wants more—another asset on top of it. It's a question of whether a single top-ten pick is fair value for a player of Saad's caliber.
Luke
But here's the thing—no one's actually done a straight swap for a top-ten pick recently. So both clubs are kind of in uncharted territory. The comps they're looking at all involved multiple pieces.
Mark
That sounds like a negotiating position, not a real impasse. How does it actually get solved?
Mimi
That's where Josh Dunkley comes in. If Carlton gives Essendon future picks along with Pick 8, Essendon can use those future picks to trade for Dunkley from the Bulldogs.
Luke
But that only works if the Bulldogs actually want future picks. Why would they?
Mimi
Because they're matching a bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan at the top of the draft. They don't need current picks. Future picks are more valuable to them.
Mark
So three clubs, two separate problems, one potential solution.
Mimi
Exactly. If it works, everyone gets what they need.
Luke
And if it doesn't? Then we're stuck with Saad at Carlton and Dunkley at the Bulldogs, and Essendon has to find another path.
Mark
What about Brad Crouch and Adelaide?
Mimi
That's a separate crisis. St Kilda made him an offer, Adelaide has until Wednesday to match it or let him go for second-round compensation.
Luke
The problem is Adelaide doesn't want to match because the compensation is only Pick 23. But St Kilda won't trade their first-round pick to make a deal work. So Adelaide might match just to force a negotiation, which is a weird position to be in.
Il Polso
- Essendon's pursuit of Carlton defender Adam Saad has stalled over whether Pick 8 alone is sufficient compensation, with Carlton holding out for additional assets before agreeing to part with a top-ten selection.
- The Western Bulldogs' reluctance to trade midfielder Josh Dunkley adds a second layer of complexity, yet their need to match a draft bid for academy star Jamarra Ugle-Hagan means future picks — not current ones — are the real currency they want.
- A potential three-club circuit is taking shape: Carlton trades a future first-rounder to Essendon for Saad, and Essendon bundles that pick with their own to prise Dunkley from the Bulldogs — but every link in the chain must hold.
- Adelaide faces a hard 5pm Wednesday deadline on Brad Crouch, weighing whether to match St Kilda's restricted free agent offer or accept second-round compensation, with neither option fully satisfying the Crows.
- COVID-19 has stripped the trade period of its traditional theatre at Marvel Stadium, pushing all negotiations online and leaving the AFL's biggest decisions to be made through screens and phone calls.
As the AFL trade period opened on November 4, 2020, the league found itself caught in the familiar tension between ambition and arithmetic — clubs wanting more than they were willing to give, and players caught in the space between. Essendon stood at the centre of a web connecting Carlton, the Western Bulldogs, and futures not yet written, while Adelaide faced a quieter but no less consequential deadline over Brad Crouch. In a year reshaped by pandemic and distance, the deals that define careers were being struck not in crowded rooms but over phone lines and digital portals, reminding the game that its most human dramas unfold regardless of circumstance.
The AFL trade period opened on November 4, 2020, with Essendon at the heart of a complicated reshuffling — yet the deals that mattered most were deadlocked before a single trade had been completed.
The central sticking point was Carlton defender Adam Saad. Essendon believed Pick 8 was fair exchange; Carlton wanted more. The disagreement was not unusual — no player had been cleanly swapped for a top-ten pick in recent memory, with comparable deals like Melbourne's acquisition of Steven May always requiring multiple moving parts. What made the impasse potentially solvable was a second, seemingly unrelated problem: the Western Bulldogs were reluctant to trade midfielder Josh Dunkley, but because they would be matching a draft bid for academy prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, they had little use for high current-year picks. Future selections were what they needed.
This opened a theoretical circuit: Carlton trades a future first-round pick to Essendon for Saad; Essendon packages that future pick with their own and sends both to the Bulldogs for Dunkley. Three clubs, two deals, multiple stars relocated. AFL Media analyst Riley Beveridge outlined the logic clearly — but theory and execution remained very different things.
Elsewhere, Adelaide faced a quieter crisis. Brad Crouch had received a restricted free agent offer from St Kilda, and the Crows had until 5pm Wednesday to match it or accept second-round compensation. Adelaide considered matching the offer simply to force further negotiation, though that path carried its own uncertainty.
The trade period itself was operating differently under COVID-19 restrictions. Clubs were not gathering at Marvel Stadium as in previous years; negotiations ran through digital systems and phone calls. Early moves were expected to be minor — players like Kyle Hartigan to Hawthorn, or already-agreed deals such as Jesse Hogan to GWS and Ben Brown to Melbourne. The real story, as always, would be written in the days ahead.
The AFL trade period opened on the morning of November 4, 2020, with Essendon positioned as the central player in what promised to be a complicated reshuffling of talent across the league. But the deals that mattered most were stalled before the first trade even went through.
The clearest logjam involved Adam Saad, the Carlton defender Essendon wanted to acquire. The two clubs disagreed on what the exchange should look like. Essendon believed a straight swap—Saad for Carlton's Pick 8—was fair. Carlton saw it differently. The Blues wanted something more, an additional asset to sweeten the deal before they would part with a top-ten selection. This disagreement reflected a broader tension in modern AFL trading: no player had been cleanly swapped for a top-ten pick in recent memory. The closest comparisons were Melbourne's acquisition of Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij from Gold Coast in exchange for Pick 6, or Brisbane's trade of Charlie Cameron to Adelaide for Pick 12. Those deals had required multiple moving parts.
What made the Saad impasse potentially solvable was the existence of a second, seemingly separate problem. The Western Bulldogs had shown little willingness to trade Josh Dunkley, their midfielder. But the Bulldogs faced a specific circumstance: they would be matching a bid at the top of the draft for academy prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, meaning they had no need for high picks in the current year. This opened a door. If Essendon could secure Carlton's future first-round selections in addition to Pick 8, they could then use those future picks along with their own to satisfy the Bulldogs' actual needs. The circuit could close. Riley Beveridge, an AFL Media analyst, laid out the logic: Pick 8 would have to be involved in the Saad deal, but only if Essendon was willing to chase future selections—precisely what they would need to move for Dunkley given the Bulldogs' draft circumstances.
The cleanest path forward, in theory, looked like this: Carlton trades its 2021 first-round pick to Essendon for Saad. Essendon then packages that future pick with their own current selection and sends both to the Bulldogs for Dunkley. Three clubs, two deals, multiple stars relocated. But theory and execution were different things, and nothing was certain.
A separate crisis was unfolding with Brad Crouch. The Adelaide midfielder had received an offer from St Kilda as a restricted free agent, and the Crows had until 5pm on Wednesday to decide whether to match it or let him walk and accept second-round compensation. Adelaide wanted more than Pick 23, the compensation they would receive if Crouch departed. The Saints, meanwhile, were unwilling to trade their first-round pick, currently Pick 15, to facilitate a deal. Adelaide was considering matching the offer simply to force a negotiation, but that path was uncertain too.
The trade period itself was operating under new constraints. COVID-19 restrictions meant clubs were not gathering at Marvel Stadium as they had in previous years. Instead, negotiations happened online and over the phone, with the AFL Review Centre managing submissions through a digital system. The first trades were expected to be minor moves—players like Adelaide's Kyle Hartigan heading to Hawthorn, or deals already agreed to in principle, such as Fremantle's Jesse Hogan moving to GWS or North Melbourne's Ben Brown joining Melbourne. But the real story of the period would be written in the coming days, when the big names and the complicated arithmetic of draft picks would determine where the league's talent ended up.
Citazioni salienti
Pick 8 is going to have to be involved in this trade for Saad. The only way it wouldn't be involved is if Essendon is after future selections, potentially to move for Josh Dunkley.— Riley Beveridge, AFL Media analyst
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