The best inoculation against wanting to be leader again
In the uncertain corridors of Westminster, Keir Starmer has declared he will not yield — yet the machinery of succession is already turning quietly around him. A scandal rooted in a diplomatic appointment has exposed the fragility of his authority, drawing dissent from within his own ranks and prompting the age-old political question: not whether a leader will fall, but who stands ready to rise. The names being weighed carry their own contradictions — ambition tempered by scandal, experience shadowed by reluctance, novelty untested by time. What unfolds in the coming months will say as much about the Labour Party's sense of itself as it does about any single individual's fate.
- Starmer told his MPs he would not resign, but the defiance of one difficult evening cannot easily silence a party that is beginning to look past him.
- The departure of his chief strategist Morgan McSweeney — who took responsibility for championing the Mandelson appointment — has left the Prime Minister visibly exposed at the centre of his own operation.
- Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and a growing number of MPs have broken cover to call for Starmer's departure, raising the real possibility that the 81-MP threshold needed to trigger a leadership challenge could be reached.
- The succession field is crowded but fractured: Wes Streeting carries Mandelson-adjacent questions, Angela Rayner faces an unresolved tax investigation, and Andy Burnham has been actively blocked from a by-election run by Starmer's own team.
- May's local and devolved elections loom as a potential accelerant — poor results could transform background pressure into an open crisis with no obvious off-ramp.
Keir Starmer stood before his MPs and said he would not resign. The Prime Minister was defiant, but the cracks were already showing. Anas Sarwar, once an ally and now the leader of Scottish Labour, had become the most prominent internal voice calling for him to go. Several MPs echoed the demand. And his chief strategist, Morgan McSweeney, had already walked away, taking responsibility for his role in championing Peter Mandelson's appointment as US ambassador — the appointment that set this crisis in motion.
Starmer's defiance bought him time, but Westminster has already moved on to the next question: who would replace him? The answer is complicated. Labour has no shortage of ambitious figures, yet none commands obvious consensus.
Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, has long been positioned as a natural successor — a council estate upbringing, the first in his family to attend university, and a narrative built around NHS reform. But questions about his own ties to Mandelson have followed him, and whispers of weekend conversations with Sarwar have not helped, even as his team denies any plotting. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, has won admirers on Labour's right for her hard line on asylum and immigration. Angela Rayner — perhaps the most compelling figure of all, and someone Starmer himself once called the best social mobility story the country has ever seen — resigned as Deputy PM in September, and an ongoing tax investigation clouds any leadership ambitions she might harbour.
Other names circulate with varying degrees of conviction. Ed Miliband has repeatedly said he does not want the job again, describing his previous leadership as the best inoculation against ever wanting it back — yet his experience keeps him in the conversation. Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has been the government's most vocal internal critic, which is likely why Starmer's team blocked him from standing in an upcoming by-election. Yvette Cooper has the longevity but is rarely named as a frontrunner. Lucy Powell has momentum but limited public profile. John Healey is considered a safe pair of hands. And then there is Al Carns — a former Royal Marines colonel, Armed Forces Minister, Everest climber, and MP of less than two years — whose name is somehow circulating as a potential prime minister, which is either a measure of the moment's desperation or its appetite for an extraordinary story.
Starmer's approval rating offers little reassurance: 19% in a late January poll, with 71% saying he is doing a bad job. May's local elections across England, Scotland, and Wales could sharpen the pressure considerably. Under Labour rules, 81 MPs can nominate a challenger and force a leadership contest — a threshold that could theoretically be reached at any point. Starmer told his party he would not walk away. Whether that holds depends entirely on what comes next.
Keir Starmer stood before his MPs on a difficult evening and said he would not resign. The Prime Minister was defiant, determined to hold his ground despite a week that had unraveled in ways few could have predicted. But the cracks were already visible. Anas Sarwar, the leader of Scottish Labour and once an ally, had become the most prominent voice inside the party calling for Starmer to step down. Several of his own MPs were saying the same thing. And his chief strategist, Morgan McSweeney, had already walked away on Sunday, taking responsibility for his role in championing Peter Mandelson's appointment as ambassador to the United States—the scandal that had triggered this cascade of pressure.
Starmer's defiance in that room bought him time, but time is a finite resource in politics. The question now circulating through Westminster is not whether he will resign, but who would take his place if he did. The answer is complicated, because Labour has no shortage of ambitious figures with the credentials to lead, yet none of them commands obvious consensus.
Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, has long been positioned as a natural successor. He rose from a council estate, the first in his family to attend university, working retail jobs to pay his way through. Since Starmer made him health secretary last July, Streeting has built a narrative around falling waiting lists and the long work ahead to save the NHS. He has also faced questions about his own connections to Mandelson—questions he tried to defuse by releasing months of private messages between them. There are also whispers that he spoke to Sarwar over the weekend, though his team denies any plotting.
Shabana Mahmood, now Home Secretary, represents a different kind of appeal. As MP for Birmingham Ladywood since 2010, she has held senior shadow roles across multiple portfolios and has won admirers on Labour's right wing for her aggressive approach to asylum and immigration reform. Angela Rayner, who resigned as Deputy Prime Minister in September over a stamp duty dispute, remains perhaps the most compelling figure—a genuine rags-to-riches story that Starmer himself has called "the best social mobility story this country has ever seen." But her path to the top is complicated by the ongoing investigation into her tax affairs. Until that clears, any leadership bid would carry real risk.
Other names circulate with varying degrees of plausibility. Ed Miliband, who led Labour from 2010 to 2015, has repeatedly and emphatically said he does not want the job again—he described his previous tenure as the best inoculation against ever wanting it back. Yet his experience makes him a potential "safe pair of hands," either as leader or as chancellor to someone else. Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has been more critical of the government than anyone else on this list, which is precisely why Starmer's team blocked him from running in next month's Gorton and Denton by-election—a decision that looked like self-preservation and probably was. Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary, has the longevity and the experience, but she is rarely mentioned as a top contender. Lucy Powell, who won the deputy leader race last October, has momentum but remains relatively unknown to the public. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, is another "safe pair of hands" option, credited with securing a significant increase in defence spending.
Then there is Al Carns, a former Royal Marines colonel who was elected to Parliament less than two years ago. He has already become Armed Forces Minister, rejoined the Royal Marines as a reservist, climbed Mount Everest in a week, and trained in Norway in minus-18-degree temperatures. The fact that Westminster is buzzing about him as a potential prime minister is either a sign of how desperate things have become or how much people enjoy a good story about a man who does impossible things before breakfast.
Starmer's approval rating offers little comfort. A YouGov poll from late January showed him at 19% approval, with 71% saying he is doing a bad job. His all-time low came in early December, when 76% disapproved. The local elections in May, across England, Scotland, and Wales, could intensify pressure further if results are poor. Under Labour's rules, 81 MPs—20 percent of the parliamentary party—can nominate a challenger to force a leadership election. That threshold could theoretically be reached at any time. Starmer told his MPs he would not walk away. Whether that promise holds depends on what happens next, and whether his party decides his time has run out.
Citas Notables
Not prepared to walk away— Keir Starmer, speaking to Labour MPs
The best social mobility story this country has ever seen— Keir Starmer, describing Angela Rayner
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Starmer's defiance in that room matter so much if the pressure is still building?
Because in politics, momentum is everything. He bought himself breathing room, but only if nothing else goes wrong. One more scandal, one more resignation, and that goodwill evaporates.
Of all these potential successors, who actually wants the job?
That's the real question, isn't it? Miliband explicitly doesn't. Rayner can't move until her tax situation clears. Streeting and Mahmood are clearly positioning themselves, but neither has the overwhelming support that would make them an obvious choice.
What about Carns? Is Westminster actually serious about him?
No. But the fact that people are talking about him shows how unsettled things are. When a two-year-old MP who climbs mountains is being mentioned as a potential prime minister, it means the establishment is grasping.
If Starmer does go, what happens to the party?
It depends on who replaces him. A Streeting or Mahmood government would probably shift right on immigration and economics. A Rayner government would be softer. But any transition would be chaotic—you'd have a new leader trying to establish authority while the party is already wounded.
Is May's election really the pressure point?
It's the obvious one. If Labour gets hammered in the locals and the devolved elections, the MPs who are currently hesitating will move. Bad results give them cover to say it's not about personality—it's about electability.
And if Starmer survives May?
Then he probably survives the year. But that's a big if.