Labour would have less than a 5% chance if it were anyone other than Burnham
In the former mining towns and suburbs of Makerfield, a constituency that has returned Labour MPs since 1983, a single by-election has become a vessel carrying the weight of an entire party's crisis. Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor and long-rumoured Labour leadership contender, has chosen this ground to make his return to Westminster — a gamble that will either restore his party's confidence in itself or confirm how far the tide has turned against it. With Reform UK needing only a modest swing to claim the seat and Nigel Farage vowing to commit his full force to the contest, the question being asked is not merely who will represent 76,000 voters, but whether the Labour Party can still speak to the communities it was built to serve.
- Reform UK surged to 50% in recent local elections in the Makerfield area while Labour collapsed to 27%, turning what was once safe territory into a genuine battleground.
- Burnham cannot challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership without a seat in Parliament, making this by-election the gateway to his entire political future.
- Nigel Farage has pledged to throw everything at the campaign, with Reform needing just a 6.7-point swing to flip a seat Labour has held for over four decades.
- Polling expert Sir John Curtice warns Labour would have less than a 5% chance of holding the seat with almost any other candidate — placing an extraordinary burden on Burnham's personal appeal.
- Local voters are split between admiration for Burnham's record on transport and public services, and a deep frustration with Labour nationally that no single candidate may be able to overcome.
- A Burnham victory would reframe him as the man who held the line; a defeat would not only end his leadership ambitions but signal that Labour's crisis runs deeper than any one personality can fix.
Andy Burnham is staking his political future on a single constituency in northwest England. After Labour MP Josh Simons stepped aside to make way for him, the Greater Manchester mayor announced he will stand in Makerfield — a seat Labour has held since 1983 — in a by-election expected on June 18. What might appear a routine transition has become a proxy war for the soul of the Labour Party and, potentially, the keys to its next leadership.
Makerfield, covering the suburbs of Wigan and surrounding former mining towns, is not accustomed to national attention. But it has become a barometer of Labour's collapse. In recent local elections, Reform UK took around 50% of the vote in the area while Labour fell to 27%. That erosion mirrors a national pattern that has intensified calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign — calls he has so far refused to heed.
Burnham, who represented the neighbouring seat of Leigh for sixteen years before becoming mayor in 2017, cannot challenge Starmer from outside Parliament. Makerfield is his route back. A win would mark him as a politician capable of holding ground most of his colleagues would lose. A loss would effectively end his leadership ambitions and deepen Labour's crisis of confidence.
Reform UK is treating the contest as a genuine opportunity rather than a symbolic gesture. The party needs only a 6.7-point swing to take the seat — ranked 29th on its target list — and Nigel Farage has promised to commit his full force to the campaign. Deputy leader Richard Tice declared the party would be making Burnham history and delivering a seismic result.
Voters in the constituency are divided. Some praise Burnham's record on buses and local services; others see his candidacy as self-serving and point to his involvement in a controversial Clean Air Zone scheme during the pandemic as evidence of flawed judgment. One local resident said she would vote for him despite preferring the Greens, viewing him as the only realistic barrier against Reform — a sentiment that may prove decisive.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice put Labour's chances of holding the seat at less than 5% with almost any other candidate. The outgoing MP won in 2024 with a majority of 5,399; Reform came second with 31.8%. That gap has since narrowed sharply. Burnham need not resign as mayor unless he wins. The by-election falls in the same week Starmer will be at the G7 summit in France — a detail that only sharpens the sense that, while the prime minister attends to the world stage, the ground beneath his party is shifting.
Andy Burnham is about to stake his political future on a single constituency election in northwest England. The Greater Manchester mayor announced this week that he will stand in Makerfield, a seat that has belonged to Labour since 1983, after the current MP Josh Simons stepped aside to make room for him. What might seem like a routine changing of the guard is anything but. This by-election, likely to be held on June 18, has become a proxy battle for control of the Labour Party itself—and potentially the next prime minister.
Makerfield is home to roughly 76,000 voters spread across the suburbs of Wigan and the surrounding former mining towns. It is not a place accustomed to national scrutiny. But the constituency has become a barometer of Labour's crisis. In local council elections held recently, Reform UK captured around 50 percent of the vote in the area, while Labour fell to 27 percent. The Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats trailed far behind. This collapse in Labour support mirrors what has happened across much of the country, and it has fueled calls from within the party for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to resign and trigger a leadership contest. Starmer has refused to set a departure date, digging in against the pressure.
Burnham, who served as an MP for Leigh for sixteen years before becoming mayor in 2017, has made no secret of his ambition to lead Labour. But he cannot challenge Starmer from outside Parliament. Makerfield offers him a path back to Westminster—if he can win it. The stakes are enormous. A victory would position him as a leader capable of holding Labour seats that most of his colleagues would lose. A defeat would cripple his leadership prospects and suggest that even Burnham's considerable local popularity cannot overcome the party's broader collapse in public confidence.
Reform UK is treating the contest as a genuine opportunity. The party needs a swing of just over 6.7 percentage points to flip the seat, and it is ranked 29th on Reform's target list. Nigel Farage has promised to "throw everything" at the campaign. Richard Tice, Reform's deputy leader, said the party would be "making Burnham history" and delivering a "seismic" win. The message is clear: this is not a holding action but an assault on what has long been safe Labour territory.
Voters in Makerfield are divided on Burnham's chances. Penelope Nelson, a nursery worker, described herself as a fan but acknowledged he would "have a fight on his hands." Stan Crook, a retired voter, was more skeptical, arguing that Labour has "let the whole country down" and that Burnham was standing primarily to advance his own career. He pointed to Burnham's involvement in a controversial Clean Air Zone scheme during the pandemic—later abandoned—as evidence of poor judgment. But Alan Entwistle, a carpet cleaner, praised Burnham's record on buses and other local initiatives. Gabriel Parkinson, who works in the charity sector, said she would vote for Burnham despite favoring the Greens, viewing him as the only realistic bulwark against Reform.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice told Politico that Labour would have "less than a 5 percent chance" in Makerfield "if it were anyone other than Andy Burnham." If Burnham wins, Curtice said, he will have demonstrated an ability to hold constituencies that most Labour politicians would lose in the current climate. Josh Simons, the outgoing MP, won the seat in 2024 with 45.2 percent of the vote and a majority of 5,399. Reform came second with 31.8 percent. The gap has narrowed dramatically since then.
Burnham does not have to resign as mayor to stand in the by-election. He will only step down from that post if he wins and returns to Parliament. The Green Party has begun its own candidate selection process but has downplayed its prospects in the constituency. Former Green leader Caroline Lucas suggested the party should not contest the seat, arguing that stopping Reform was more important than maintaining a Green candidacy. The by-election is scheduled for the same week that Starmer will be attending a G7 summit in France, adding another layer of political drama to an already fraught moment for the Labour government.
Citas Notables
He knows what the people want and he stands for that. But he'll have a fight on his hands.— Penelope Nelson, Makerfield voter
Labour in general have let the whole country down. Nobody's got any faith in Keir Starmer.— Stan Crook, retired Makerfield voter
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a single by-election in a place most people have never heard of matter so much right now?
Because Burnham can't challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership unless he's an MP. Makerfield is his only realistic path back to Parliament. If he loses, his leadership ambitions probably die with it.
But he's already the mayor of Greater Manchester. Isn't that a powerful position?
It is, but it's not Parliament. The party is in crisis—Starmer's under pressure to resign—and the only way Burnham can position himself as an alternative is to prove he can win an election in this climate. Most Labour MPs are terrified right now.
What's changed since the last general election in 2024?
Reform has surged. They went from 31.8 percent in Makerfield in 2024 to roughly 50 percent in the local elections. Labour dropped from 45 percent to 27 percent. That's not a small shift—it's a collapse.
So Reform actually has a real chance of winning this seat?
Yes. They need a swing of just over 6.7 percentage points. In the current climate, that's entirely plausible. The only thing that might save Labour is that Burnham is genuinely popular locally and has a track record of delivering on things like bus services.
What do the voters themselves think?
Mixed. Some see him as the best hope against Reform. Others think he's just using the seat to climb the ladder and don't trust Labour anymore. The local council elections spooked people—they showed how far the party has fallen.
If Burnham wins, what happens next?
He becomes an MP again and immediately becomes a serious contender in a Labour leadership race. If he loses, he's damaged goods and the party's crisis deepens. Either way, this election will reshape Labour's future.