The ball sits in Trump's court, Iran says, as neither side yields
One hundred days after the first strikes, the United States and Iran remain suspended in a conflict neither has found the will to end — each side absorbing costs it hoped the other would find unbearable first. Iran holds Lebanon's ceasefire and $24 billion in frozen assets as the price of any conversation, while Washington continues seizing tankers and shooting down drones over the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that once carried the world's energy and now carries almost nothing. What began as a show of decisive force has settled into the older, grimmer rhythm of a standoff — where the question is no longer who struck hardest, but who can endure longest.
- Iran has drawn a firm line: no deal with Washington until Hezbollah and Israel stop fighting in Lebanon and $24 billion in frozen assets are released — conditions that have not moved in 100 days.
- The Strait of Hormuz, once crossed by more than 100 ships a day, has effectively gone dark — a 95 percent collapse in commercial traffic that is reshaping global energy flows in real time.
- American forces shot down four Iranian drones, struck coastal radar sites, and seized a sanctioned supertanker in a single Friday — yet Trump himself admitted Iran still holds roughly a fifth of its original missile arsenal.
- Iran escalated this week by striking Kuwait and Bahrain with missiles and drones, killing one person and injuring dozens at Kuwait's main airport — the worst violence since April's fragile ceasefire.
- At home, 64 percent of Americans now believe the war was a mistake, Congress has voted to halt the conflict, and inflation tied to the fighting is eroding the political ground beneath Trump.
- Oil prices have stabilized near $90 a barrel rather than the feared $300 — but the economic and political damage is accumulating on both sides with no exit visible.
One hundred days into a conflict that neither side has found a way to end, the United States and Iran remain locked in a standoff that has drained a vital shipping lane, fractured congressional support for the president, and left a majority of Americans questioning whether the war was worth beginning at all.
The diplomatic knot centers on Lebanon. Iran's military adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei stated publicly this week that no agreement with the Trump administration is possible until a ceasefire takes hold between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon — and until $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets are released. Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that back-channel talks through intermediaries have produced nothing concrete. Tehran's message is pointed: the next move belongs to Washington.
The military tempo has not slowed. On a single Friday, American forces shot down four Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz, struck Iranian coastal radar installations on two islands in retaliation, and seized a sanctioned oil supertanker from Iran's shadow fleet. Trump has described the campaign as decisive, claiming American forces have 'totally destroyed' Iran's military. Yet in a television interview he acknowledged that Iran still holds roughly 21 to 22 percent of its original missile arsenal — 'a lot of missiles,' he admitted, 'but not what it was.'
The Strait of Hormuz tells the economic story most plainly. Before the conflict began in late February, more than 100 vessels transited daily. Over the past two months, that figure has collapsed by 95 percent. On one Friday morning, no commercial ships were observed passing through at all. Oil prices, widely feared to spiral toward $300 a barrel, have instead settled near $90 — steadied by reduced Chinese demand and higher American crude exports — though they fell nearly 3 percent on Friday alone.
The war is also fracturing the political landscape at home. A Republican-controlled Congress has begun pushing back, with the House voting to halt the conflict — a symbolic but telling rebuke that drew four GOP members across the aisle. A May poll found 64 percent of Americans believe going to war with Iran was the wrong decision. Iranian officials appear to be reading these signals carefully, betting that mounting domestic pressure will eventually force concessions from Trump. For now, neither side is bending, and the conflict grinds forward with no clear path out.
One hundred days into a conflict that neither side seems willing to end, the United States and Iran remain locked in a standoff that has hollowed out shipping lanes, fractured congressional support for the president, and left ordinary Americans questioning whether the war was worth fighting at all.
The immediate flashpoint is Lebanon. Iran's military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei told CNN this week that before any agreement with the Trump administration can take shape, there must first be a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon. The same official also demanded the unfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian assets—a precondition that has remained constant even as military skirmishes continue to flare. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged that talks between the two sides, conducted through intermediaries, have yielded no tangible progress. The ball, the Iranian adviser said, sits in Trump's court.
Meanwhile, the military pressure has not relented. On Friday alone, American forces shot down four Iranian drones headed toward the Strait of Hormuz and then struck Iranian coastal radar installations on Goruk and Qeshm Island in response. Earlier that same day, the US military seized a sanctioned oil supertanker it said belonged to Iran's shadow fleet. These actions are part of a broader campaign that Trump has repeatedly characterized as decisive—the president told reporters that Iran is "in no position to have a nuclear weapon" and that American forces have "totally destroyed" the country's military capabilities. Yet in an NBC interview during a campaign stop in Wisconsin, Trump acknowledged a contradiction in his own messaging: Iran still retains roughly 21 to 22 percent of its missile arsenal. "It's a lot of missiles," he conceded, "but it's not what it was when we first attacked."
The economic toll is visible in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil and gas shipments from the Persian Gulf. Before the conflict began on February 28, more than 100 vessels passed through daily. In the past two months, American forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial transits total—a 95 percent collapse in traffic. On Friday morning alone, no commercial ships were observed transiting the strait, though three passages in each direction had been recorded the day before. Oil prices, which many feared could spike to $300 a barrel, have instead stabilized around $90, aided by reduced Chinese consumption and increased American crude exports. On Friday, prices fell nearly 3 percent.
But the war is fracturing support at home. Congress, controlled by Republicans, has begun to push back against Trump's foreign policy. The House voted to halt the conflict—a largely symbolic measure that nonetheless drew four GOP members to side with Democrats. Congress also passed legislation to provide additional aid to Ukraine and impose fresh sanctions on Russia, moves that underscore growing frustration over inflation that has persisted since the fighting began. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in May found that 64 percent of Americans believe going to war with Iran was the wrong decision.
The human cost has mounted in recent days. Earlier this week, Iran fired missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain, killing one person and injuring dozens at Kuwait's main airport—the worst escalation since a fragile ceasefire took hold on April 8. That attack, and the continued military exchanges, suggest that Tehran believes it can outlast the current pressure. Iranian officials appear to be betting that the political pain accumulating in Washington—the congressional rebukes, the public opposition, the inflation eating into paychecks—will eventually force Trump to concede on some of his core demands. For now, neither side has shown signs of bending. The conflict that began in late February continues to grind forward, with no clear off-ramp in sight.
Citações Notáveis
The ball is in Trump's court when it comes to a deal— Iran's military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, speaking to CNN
Iran still has about 21 to 22 percent of their missiles remaining—it's a lot of missiles, but it's not what it was when we first attacked— President Donald Trump, in NBC News interview
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Iran keep insisting on a Lebanon ceasefire? That seems like a separate conflict entirely.
It's not separate to them. Hezbollah is Iran's proxy, and the fighting in southern Lebanon is part of the same regional struggle. By tying a ceasefire there to any deal with the US, Iran is saying: you can't negotiate with us while you're letting Israel pummel our allies. It's leverage.
And the $24 billion in frozen assets—is that a realistic demand?
It's what Iran had before sanctions tightened. Whether it's realistic depends on whether Trump sees value in a deal. Right now he's saying Iran is broken, nearly defeated. If he actually believed that, he wouldn't need to negotiate at all. The fact that talks are happening at all suggests both sides think the other has something worth bargaining for.
The shipping numbers are staggering. How is the global economy absorbing a 95 percent drop in Strait traffic?
Oil prices haven't spiked the way everyone feared, which is the main thing. China's buying less, America's exporting more crude, and there's enough slack in global supply that it's not causing a crisis. But it's fragile. One major escalation could change that overnight.
Trump keeps saying he's winning, but then admits Iran still has most of its missiles. How does that square?
It doesn't, really. He's trying to claim victory while acknowledging reality. The missiles are still there. The drones keep coming. What he's actually done is damage Iran's capabilities, not eliminate them. That's not nothing, but it's not the total victory he's describing.
Why would Congress vote against their own president's war?
Because inflation is real and people are angry. When 64 percent of Americans think the war was wrong, even Republicans start to feel it. Four GOP members crossing over to vote with Democrats—that's a signal that Trump's grip on his own party is loosening.