Iran gets nothing unless it changes its behavior
In the long arc of Middle Eastern conflict, Wednesday marked a rare pause: the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding outside Paris, formally halting months of warfare and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global commerce for the first time in 110 days. The agreement is less a resolution than an invitation — a 60-day window in which negotiators will attempt to settle the deeper questions of nuclear ambition, missile arsenals, and sanctions that have defined the two nations' enmity for decades. Yet even as oil flows again and markets exhale, the agreement strains against the weight of Israel's refusal to leave southern Lebanon, reminding the world that peace, when it arrives, rarely arrives whole.
- After 110 days of blockade, commercial vessels are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again — 12.5 million barrels of oil transited Thursday alone, offering immediate relief to energy markets and stranded shipping fleets.
- The agreement is already under pressure: Israel refuses to withdraw from southern Lebanon despite the memorandum's explicit demand for a halt to all military operations, and Iran has signaled that continued Israeli presence constitutes a breach.
- Inside Iran, Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly distanced himself from the deal even as he permitted it, framing it as a concession wrested from American desperation rather than a genuine diplomatic achievement.
- In Washington, Republican senators — including Armed Services Committee chair Roger Wicker — are questioning whether the deal surrenders hard-won military gains without sufficient guarantees on Iran's nuclear program.
- The real negotiation has not yet begun: technical talks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missiles, and sanctions relief are set to open in Switzerland, with a 60-day clock now running and the outcome far from certain.
On Wednesday evening, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding at a candlelit dinner outside Paris, formally ending months of Middle Eastern warfare. By Thursday morning, the effects were already tangible: commercial vessels were moving through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in 110 days, oil prices were falling, and stock markets were rising. Some 12.5 million barrels of oil transited the passage on Thursday alone, though the main central route remains closed pending clearance of an estimated 80 mines, and hundreds of stranded merchant vessels face weeks of logistical work before they can exit the Gulf.
The agreement's immediate terms are straightforward — the strait reopens, the U.S. naval blockade lifts — but its ambitions reach further. Over the next 60 days, negotiators will convene in Switzerland to address Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal, and the conditions for sanctions relief. Vice President Vance framed the deal as leverage rather than generosity: Iran receives nothing unless it permits genuine inspections and changes its behavior. If it fails, he argued, its military and nuclear capabilities are already diminished. If it succeeds, the relationship could be transformed.
The agreement is already showing fractures. Israel has refused to withdraw from southern Lebanon, where nearly 4,000 people have been killed since March and where Israeli forces continue to operate against Hezbollah. The memorandum explicitly demands a halt to all military operations, and Iran has made clear that Israeli troops on Lebanese soil represent a violation. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced Israel would maintain its security zone indefinitely. Fighting continued Thursday, with one Israeli soldier killed the day prior.
Within Iran, the deal is being sold as a diplomatic victory, though Supreme Leader Khamenei — unseen publicly since the war began — released a statement saying he disagreed with it on principle but permitted President Pezeshkian to sign in order to protect Iranian interests. Ordinary Iranians expressed cautious relief, with many hoping sanctions relief would ease the inflation that has made daily life increasingly difficult. In Washington, congressional skepticism runs deep, with senior Republicans warning that the memorandum may have traded military gains for insufficient guarantees. The door has opened. Whether it leads somewhere lasting remains the question.
On Wednesday evening, President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at a candlelit dinner outside Paris, formally ending months of warfare that had consumed the Middle East. By Thursday morning, the consequences were already visible: at least ten commercial vessels were moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the first significant traffic through the waterway in 110 days. The blockade that had strangled global energy markets was lifting. Oil prices were falling. The stock market was climbing. For the first time since February, ships that had been effectively marooned in the Persian Gulf were heading home.
The agreement itself is modest in its immediate scope but ambitious in its reach. It calls for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which 20 percent of the world's oil and natural gas flows—and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. But the real work lies ahead. Over the next 60 days, negotiators from both countries will meet in Switzerland to hash out the harder questions: the fate of Iran's nuclear program, the future of ballistic missiles, and the terms under which Western sanctions might be lifted. Vice President JD Vance said he expected those technical talks to begin Friday at the Burgenstock resort near Lucerne, though he acknowledged that timing depends on when Iran's delegation can travel. The White House later clarified that Vance himself would not be departing Thursday night as originally planned.
The immediate economic relief is real. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that major shipping companies—Grimaldi Group, Cosco, Knutsen, NYK—have begun moving vessels through the strait. Two Iranian tankers, previously sanctioned and blocked, have entered the waterway. On Thursday alone, 12.5 million barrels of oil transited the passage, the highest volume since the war began. Yet the main central route remains closed, with an estimated 80 mines still requiring clearance. Ships are instead using the northern route through Iranian waters and the southern route through Omani waters, both of which are now open. Lloyd's List estimates that 550 merchant vessels will eventually need to exit the Gulf—160 tankers, 200 bulk carriers, 60 container ships, and 10 vehicle carriers—a massive logistical undertaking that will take weeks to complete.
But the agreement is already fracturing under the weight of competing interests. Israel has flatly refused to withdraw from southern Lebanon, where its forces have been operating against Hezbollah since March. The memorandum explicitly calls for "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," and Iran has made clear that any Israeli presence in Lebanese territory constitutes a breach. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel would maintain its "security zone" in southern Lebanon—an area extending roughly six miles into the country—for as long as Israel's security needs require it. Hezbollah claims it repelled an Israeli advance on Thursday. The Israeli military announced one soldier killed and seven wounded in fighting the day before. Nearly 4,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since Israel launched major operations there on March 2 in response to Hezbollah rocket fire. The death toll in Israel stands at 31 soldiers and one civilian contractor.
Inside Iran, the agreement is being presented as a diplomatic victory, though Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei made clear his reservations. In a statement released Thursday, Khamenei said he disagreed with the deal on principle but allowed President Pezeshkian to sign it "safeguarding the rights of the Iranian nation." He took a shot at Trump, writing that it was "the American president who, out of desperation, used all kinds of leverage to bring this about." Khamenei himself has not been seen in public since the war began on February 28, and is believed to have suffered serious injuries in a joint Israeli and U.S. strike that killed his predecessor. Some Tehran residents told CBS News they were relieved the war was over and hopeful that economic sanctions relief would bring down inflation that has made daily life punishing for ordinary Iranians. A 21-year-old woman named Mahzad said she wanted the government to prioritize lowering consumer prices. "What people my age want is that inflation comes down, we want sanctions to get lifted," she said, "so that people can live their lives."
The Trump administration is framing the agreement as a win-win. Vice President Vance said Thursday that Iran receives nothing—no money, no sanctions relief—unless it changes its behavior and allows real inspections of its nuclear infrastructure. If Iran fails to comply, he said, the country's military and nuclear program are already destroyed, leaving it less of a threat. If it succeeds, the relationship could be "transformational." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the U.S. military stands ready to reimpose the naval blockade if Iran violates the terms. President Trump, meanwhile, lashed out at critics of the deal, calling them "fools" and "jealous, bad people, or stupid" for suggesting he had not been tough enough on Iran.
Congress is skeptical. Senior Trump administration officials briefed House and Senate leaders Thursday on the agreement, but several Republicans—including those not typically critical of Trump—expressed concern that the deal does not sufficiently restrict Iran. Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he was concerned the memorandum "negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury in ways that are completely out of step with the President's goals." Senator Ted Cruz accused the administration of giving money to Iran through sanctions relief. Vance said officials plan to brief Congress again soon but did not set a date.
What happens next depends on whether the fragile agreement can survive its first test. The 60-day negotiation window has begun. Ships are moving. Oil is flowing. But Israel remains in Lebanon, Iran insists it must leave, and the deeper questions about nuclear weapons and regional power remain unresolved. The agreement has opened a door. Whether it leads to lasting peace or simply delays the next conflict remains to be seen.
Notable Quotes
I am concerned that the memorandum of understanding negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury in ways that are completely out of step with the President's goals.— Senator Roger Wicker, chair of Senate Armed Services Committee
If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.— Vice President JD Vance, to Israeli officials critical of the deal
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Israel staying in Lebanon matter so much to Iran? It seems like a detail compared to the nuclear question.
Because it's not a detail—it's the test. Iran agreed to stop fighting on all fronts. If Israel doesn't leave Lebanon, Iran can say the U.S. broke its word. It's the thing that could blow up the whole agreement in the first week.
And Israel just refuses to go?
Netanyahu says he won't leave until Israel's security needs are met. He's not wrong to worry—Hezbollah is still there. But from Iran's perspective, that's exactly the problem. The agreement says no military operations on any front. Israel operating in Lebanon violates that.
So who enforces it?
That's the real question. The U.S. is supposed to be the guarantor. But the U.S. is also Israel's closest ally. Vance basically told Israeli officials not to attack their only powerful friend. It's a warning, but it's not enforcement.
What about the ordinary Iranians you mentioned—the ones hoping for cheaper bread?
They're the reason this deal might actually work. Inflation has been crushing people for years. If sanctions relief brings money into the economy, prices come down, people can breathe. That's real pressure on the government to stick with the agreement.
But what if the nuclear talks fail?
Then the blockade comes back. The U.S. military is ready to reimpose it. Vance was clear: Iran gets nothing unless it gives up its nuclear program. No money, no relief, nothing.
So it's all or nothing?
For now, yes. Sixty days to figure out whether two countries that were at war can actually negotiate. Ships are moving through the strait again. That's real. But everything else—the nuclear deal, the sanctions, whether Israel leaves Lebanon—that's all still up in the air.