Markets are behaving as though a breakthrough already exists
Even as American warplanes struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels along the southern coast, Iran's foreign minister sat in Doha negotiating the terms of a fragile peace — a tableau that captures the essential paradox of this moment: force and diplomacy not as opposites, but as simultaneous instruments of the same uncertain hand. The Trump administration is attempting to reshape not just Iran's nuclear future but the entire architecture of Middle Eastern alignment, conditioning any deal on a sweeping regional normalization with Israel that most of the named nations have long resisted. What hangs in the balance is not merely a ceasefire that has barely held since April, but the question of whether coercive diplomacy at this scale can produce durable order — or whether it simply multiplies the points of failure.
- US Central Command launched strikes on Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran on the very day Tehran's top diplomats were at the negotiating table in Doha, sending an unmistakable message that military pressure would not pause for diplomacy.
- Trump's demand that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Pakistan all sign the Abraham Accords as a condition of any nuclear deal has injected an entirely new and contentious dimension into talks that were already straining under their own weight.
- Netanyahu's vow to 'crush' Hezbollah — and Iran's insistence that any ceasefire must address Lebanon — have placed Israeli and American objectives on a collision course, with Israel reportedly shut out of the negotiations entirely and reduced to gathering intelligence through allied spy networks.
- Experts warn the deal taking shape may impose fewer restrictions on Iran's nuclear program than the 2015 JCPOA that Netanyahu spent years dismantling, raising the alarming possibility that the war's aftermath accelerates rather than constrains Iranian nuclear ambitions.
- Oil markets fell more than 4 percent on deal optimism, but the underlying reality remains unresolved — Washington signals progress, Tehran denies any imminent agreement, and a seven-week ceasefire continues to hold by the thinnest of margins.
On a Monday in late May, American forces struck Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran — even as Tehran's foreign minister sat across a table in Doha with Qatar's prime minister, negotiating the terms of a ceasefire that had barely held since April 8th. US Central Command called the strikes self-defense. The message was harder to contain: the military option was still live, regardless of what the diplomats were saying.
Donald Trump declared the talks were going 'nicely' while insisting any deal would have to be transformative or not happen at all. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting India, added that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened 'one way or the other.' But the more disruptive element was what Trump had begun attaching to any potential agreement: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Pakistan would all need to sign the Abraham Accords — the normalization agreements with Israel brokered during his first term. Saudi Arabia had long held that any such move required a credible path to Palestinian statehood. Pakistan, a key mediator between Washington and Tehran, held the same position. Analysts noted that Trump had introduced an entirely new dimension into talks already complex enough without it.
Benjamin Netanyahu was moving in the opposite direction, vowing to 'crush' Hezbollah even as Iran insisted any ceasefire had to address the Lebanon conflict. Israel, meanwhile, had been locked out of the negotiations entirely — not even receiving updates, according to the New York Times — and was reduced to gathering intelligence through regional allies. Israeli analysts were growing alarmed. The deal taking shape would likely impose fewer restrictions on Iran's nuclear program than the 2015 JCPOA that Netanyahu had spent years attacking. One Israeli columnist wrote that if Iran ended up with a nuclear weapon, it would be Netanyahu's bomb.
Markets seemed to be pricing in a breakthrough that hadn't arrived. US crude fell more than 4 percent, as if traders had already decided the outcome. But the hardest parts of the negotiation — the language, the conditions, the regional realignment — remained unresolved. Washington projected optimism. Tehran insisted nothing was imminent. And somewhere between those two positions, a fragile ceasefire continued to hold, for now.
On a Monday in late May, American forces struck Iranian military targets in the south of the country—missile launch facilities and vessels positioned to lay mines in regional waters. The timing was stark: as the bombs fell, Iran's top negotiator and foreign minister were sitting across a table in Doha with Qatar's prime minister, trying to hammer out the terms of a ceasefire that had been holding, barely, since April 8th.
The US Central Command framed the strikes as self-defense, necessary to protect American troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. No further details were offered. But the message was unmistakable: even as diplomats talked, the military option remained live. Donald Trump, watching from Washington, declared the negotiations were progressing "nicely" while simultaneously warning that any deal would have to be transformative or nonexistent. "It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all," he posted. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting India, added his own pressure, insisting the Strait of Hormuz would be opened—"one way or the other." He called the current situation unlawful and unsustainable, though he also suggested the negotiating language itself might take a few more days to finalize.
What made this moment particularly fragile was not just the military strikes, but the diplomatic architecture Trump was trying to build around them. He had begun conditioning any Iran deal on a much larger regional realignment: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Pakistan would all need to sign the Abraham Accords—the normalization agreements with Israel that the US had brokered during his first term. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain had taken that step. But the others had held back, particularly Saudi Arabia, which insisted that any move toward Israel required first establishing a clear path to Palestinian statehood. Pakistan, a crucial mediator between Washington and Tehran, held the same position. A Pakistani analyst noted that Trump's proposal had introduced an entirely new dimension to talks that were already complex enough without it.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu was moving in the opposite direction. He vowed to "crush" Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iranian-backed militant group that had been fighting Israeli forces. Iran had made clear that any ceasefire agreement had to address the Lebanon conflict as well. Iran's foreign minister praised Hezbollah's resistance. Netanyahu's rhetoric suggested he had no intention of restraining Israeli operations to accommodate Tehran's demands.
For Israel itself, the situation was becoming precarious. The country had been locked out of the Iran negotiations entirely, not even receiving updates on their progress, according to reporting from the New York Times. Netanyahu's government was reduced to gathering intelligence through regional allies and their spy networks. Israeli analysts were growing alarmed. The emerging deal that Trump's team was negotiating would likely impose fewer restrictions on Iran's nuclear program than the 2015 agreement—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—that Netanyahu had spent years attacking. One Israeli columnist wrote that if Iran ended up with a nuclear weapon, it would be Netanyahu's bomb, a reference to the possibility that the war and its aftermath might actually accelerate Iran's nuclear ambitions rather than constrain them.
Markets, for their part, seemed to be pricing in a deal already. US crude oil fell more than 4 percent to $91.59 a barrel. Brent crude gained slightly. Traders appeared to be shrugging off the military strikes as noise rather than signal. But analysts noted the disconnect: markets were behaving as though a breakthrough had already been achieved, even though the hardest parts of the negotiation—the language, the conditions, the regional alignment—remained unresolved. Washington was signaling optimism. Tehran was insisting no agreement was imminent. And somewhere between those two positions, a ceasefire that had lasted seven weeks hung in the balance.
Citações Notáveis
It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all— Donald Trump, on the Iran negotiations
The invocation of the Abraham Accords at this stage gives an altogether new dimension to the diplomatic and mediatory processes because this issue was not on the agenda— Masood Khan, Pakistan's former ambassador to the US
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why strike now, while talks are happening? Doesn't that undermine the whole negotiation?
That's the paradox at the center of this. The US frames it as self-defense—protecting troops from immediate threats. But the timing sends a message: we're negotiating, but we're also prepared to fight. It's pressure disguised as necessity.
And Trump's demand that other countries sign the Abraham Accords—is that a dealbreaker?
It could be. Saudi Arabia won't move on Israel without Palestinian statehood first. Pakistan feels the same way. Trump is trying to solve multiple problems at once, but he may have just added new ones. It's like saying: yes, let's end this war, but also, let's reshape the entire region's diplomatic relationships.
Netanyahu seems to be going the opposite direction—talking about crushing Hezbollah.
Exactly. He's not constraining Israeli operations to help the talks succeed. Iran said any deal has to cover Lebanon too. But Netanyahu is escalating there. It's hard to see how those two things reconcile.
So what does Israel actually want from all this?
Israel wants Iran's nuclear program dismantled or severely limited. But it's been cut out of the negotiations. It's getting intelligence secondhand, through regional allies. There's real anxiety that Trump's deal will be weaker than Obama's 2015 agreement—which Netanyahu hated anyway.
And the markets don't seem worried.
Markets are pricing in success that hasn't happened yet. Oil is down, traders are calm. But analysts are saying the hardest parts of the negotiation haven't even been resolved. Everyone's optimistic, but for different reasons, and those reasons might not align.