The ceasefire is holding, but it feels like everyone's preparing for it to break.
As Iranian diplomats flew to Doha seeking an end to a war that has shaken global energy markets, American forces struck missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, framing the action as self-defense. The strikes arrived at a moment of extraordinary fragility — a ceasefire barely seven weeks old, oil markets already trembling, and negotiators on both sides still far apart on the sequencing of peace. History has long shown that wars are most dangerous not when they begin, but when they are almost over, and the distance between almost and actually can be measured in the decisions of the next few hours.
- US Central Command launched strikes on Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats even as Iranian negotiators were boarding planes for peace talks in Doha, fracturing the ceasefire's already thin credibility.
- Oil markets lurched immediately — Brent crude surged nearly two percent to $97.56 a barrel in Asian trading, signaling that global markets see the conflict as nowhere near resolved.
- Netanyahu's simultaneous order to intensify operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon deepened the crisis, since Iran insists any peace deal must address the Lebanese front — a condition Israel and the US have not accepted.
- Trump's demands are expanding rather than narrowing: Iran must surrender its enriched uranium, and eight Arab nations including Saudi Arabia and Qatar must sign the Abraham Accords — conditions analysts say are politically impossible for Gulf states to meet.
- Secretary Rubio's suggestion that a deal was hours away proved premature; Iran's foreign ministry swiftly corrected the record, and the gap between American optimism and Iranian caution is now openly on display in Doha.
On Monday morning, even as Iranian negotiators boarded flights to Doha for peace talks, US Central Command struck Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran. The Pentagon framed the operation as self-defense, offering no details on its scope. The timing could hardly have been worse — a ceasefire in place since April 8 had kept a fragile calm, and the strikes immediately threatened to unravel it.
Oil markets responded with alarm. Brent crude jumped nearly two percent to $97.56 a barrel in early Asian trading, a reminder that any escalation between Washington and Tehran sends immediate tremors through the global economy. The message traders were reading was simple: this war is not over.
The diplomatic picture had already grown tangled. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced he was intensifying military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon — significant because Iran has insisted that any peace agreement must address the Lebanese conflict as well. Netanyahu and Trump had aligned on a shared position: Iran must eliminate its nuclear threat entirely before any deal is signed. Iranian officials, however, had proposed deferring nuclear discussions until after an initial agreement was reached, creating a fundamental deadlock over sequencing.
Trump's public demands were growing more expansive. He called on Iran to surrender its enriched uranium to the United States or allow its destruction under international supervision, and insisted that eight Arab nations — including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey — sign the Abraham Accords as part of any Iran settlement. Analysts noted the near-impossibility of the latter condition: both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have stated they will not recognize Israel without an independent Palestinian state, a threshold that remains far from met.
Secretary of State Rubio had suggested days earlier that a deal might come within hours, briefly sending oil prices lower. Iran's foreign ministry quickly pushed back, acknowledging progress on some issues while making clear that no agreement was imminent. The negotiators were in Doha, but the space around them was closing. With American strikes resuming and maximalist preconditions piling up, the question had shifted from whether a deal was near to whether the ceasefire itself could survive the week.
On Monday morning, as Iranian negotiators boarded planes for Doha to discuss ending a war that has destabilized global energy markets, the United States military struck Iranian targets in the south. The strikes hit missile launch sites and boats positioned to lay mines, according to Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for US Central Command. The operation was framed as self-defense—necessary to protect American troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. No further details were released about the scope or scale of the attacks.
The timing was precarious. A ceasefire had held since April 8, fragile but functional, as diplomats on both sides worked toward an accord that might finally end the conflict. The strikes threatened that arrangement immediately. Oil markets reacted with alarm. Brent crude futures jumped nearly two percent in early Asian trading, climbing $1.40 to $97.56 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $91.25, though it remained down sharply from the previous week. The message was clear: any escalation between the United States and Iran sends tremors through the global economy, and traders were watching closely.
The diplomatic landscape had already grown more complicated. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday that he had ordered an intensification of military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, vowing to "crush" the Iranian-backed militia. This mattered because Iran had made clear that any peace agreement must address the fighting in Lebanon as well—not just the direct conflict between American and Iranian forces. Netanyahu and Trump had agreed, according to the Israeli leader, that any final accord with Iran must "eliminate the nuclear threat entirely" before peace could be reached. But Iranian officials had deferred detailed talks about the nuclear program until after an initial agreement was signed, creating a fundamental sequencing problem.
Trump's demands were escalating. In a social media post, he declared that Iran must hand over its enriched uranium to the United States for destruction, or allow it to be destroyed inside Iran under international supervision. He named the Atomic Energy Commission as a potential witness—a body that had actually been abolished in 1974, its functions transferred to successor agencies. The statement left unclear whether this was a formal precondition for any deal or merely a statement of preference. More broadly, Trump insisted that eight Arab nations—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Bahrain, and Jordan—must sign the Abraham Accords as part of any Iran peace settlement. These accords, brokered in 2020, had normalized relations between some Arab states and Israel but remained deeply unpopular across much of the Middle East because they sidestepped the Israeli-Palestinian conflict entirely.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio had suggested just days earlier that a deal might be reached within hours, sparking optimism that sent oil prices tumbling. But Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei quickly dampened those expectations. While significant progress had been made on many issues, he said, no one could claim that an agreement was imminent. The gap between American optimism and Iranian caution was widening.
Analysts watching from Washington saw the problem clearly. Anna Jacobs of the Arab Gulf States Institute noted that Trump's demands were adding to the burden already crushing Gulf nations. "The national security of the Gulf states has been threatened more than ever before because of President Trump's reckless decisions," she said, "and he expects Arab states to thank him and to normalise relations with Israel, which they will not do at this stage." The core issue was that Saudi Arabia and Qatar had both stated they would never recognize Israel without an independent Palestinian state—a condition that remained unmet and seemed unlikely to change.
The war had already disrupted global energy flows severely. Iran maintained controls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US Navy sought to blockade Iranian ports. The ceasefire had held this tension in place, but barely. Now, with American strikes resuming and Netanyahu ordering escalation in Lebanon, the fragile arrangement looked increasingly vulnerable. Negotiators were in Doha, but the space for agreement was shrinking. Trump's maximalist demands—uranium surrender, Abraham Accords signatures, nuclear threat elimination before talks even began—seemed designed to complicate rather than clarify the path forward. The question was no longer whether a deal was close, but whether the ceasefire could survive the next few days.
Citas Notables
The national security of the Gulf states has been threatened more than ever before because of President Trump's reckless decisions, and he expects Arab states to thank him and to normalise relations with Israel, which they will not do at this stage.— Anna Jacobs, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion. But to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent—no one can make such a claim.— Esmaeil Baqaei, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did the US strike now, in the middle of negotiations?
The statement says it was self-defense—protecting troops from Iranian threats. But the timing is what matters. Negotiators were literally flying to Doha as the missiles were falling. It signals that even while talking, both sides are preparing for the talks to fail.
What does Trump actually want from Iran?
He's asking for three things: the enriched uranium gone, eight Arab states to sign the Abraham Accords, and the nuclear threat eliminated before any real negotiations even start. It's a maximalist position. Iran says they'll talk about the nuclear program later, after an initial agreement. They're not on the same timeline.
Why does Netanyahu's move in Lebanon matter so much?
Because Iran tied the whole thing together. They said any peace deal has to address Lebanon too, not just the direct US-Iran conflict. Netanyahu just announced he's intensifying operations there. That's a signal that Israel isn't waiting for diplomacy to work.
What's the Abraham Accords problem?
They normalized some Arab-Israeli relations, but they ignored Palestine entirely. Saudi Arabia and Qatar both said they'll never sign unless there's a Palestinian state. Trump is now demanding they sign as part of an Iran deal. It's asking them to choose between Trump and their own populations.
How are markets reading this?
Oil jumped two percent on the strikes alone. Traders know that if this ceasefire breaks, energy prices spike and the global economy feels it immediately. Every escalation is a reminder that this war isn't contained—it ripples everywhere.
Is a deal still possible?
Technically yes. But the gap is widening. Iran's saying progress has been made but nothing's imminent. Trump's adding new demands. Netanyahu's escalating in Lebanon. The ceasefire is holding, but it feels like everyone's preparing for it to break.