It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all
Seven weeks into a ceasefire neither side fully trusts, the United States struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz even as Iranian negotiators landed in Qatar to discuss frozen assets and the waterway's reopening. The simultaneous acts of war and diplomacy reveal a negotiation conducted not in good faith alone, but in the grammar of pressure — each side speaking through both envoys and ordnance. What hangs in the balance is not merely a bilateral agreement, but the flow of one-fifth of the world's energy supply and the question of whether a nuclear-armed Iran becomes the permanent cost of a failed peace.
- US forces killed at least four Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops in strikes on mine-laying boats near Bandar Abbas — the second major military action during a seven-week ceasefire.
- Iranian negotiators, including the central bank governor, arrived in Qatar the same day, signaling that unfreezing billions in frozen assets matters more to Tehran right now than resolving the nuclear file.
- Trump offered a significant concession — allowing Iran to destroy its enriched uranium stockpile on its own soil under international supervision — in a bid to restart talks that had stalled over the weekend.
- The nuclear question is being deliberately deferred, with any initial deal focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and leaving weapons-grade uranium for a separate negotiating window thirty to sixty days later.
- Iran has complicated the picture by demanding a ceasefire in Lebanon as part of any agreement, tying the strait's fate to a separate Israeli-Hezbollah conflict that Netanyahu has vowed to escalate.
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran showed its fragility on Tuesday when American forces struck missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines near Bandar Abbas, killing at least four Revolutionary Guard troops. Iranian state television reported explosions near the port city before insisting the situation was under control.
The timing was deliberate. Even as the strikes unfolded, an Iranian delegation — including parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati — was arriving in Qatar to resume talks with American officials. The presence of the central bank chief made Tehran's priorities plain: not nuclear weapons, but money. Billions in Iranian assets sit frozen in foreign banks, and unfreezing them has become central to any deal.
What is being negotiated looks nothing like the 2015 nuclear accord. The immediate focus is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas normally flows. For Trump, facing midterm elections and voter frustration over energy costs, that reopening has become urgent. Nuclear issues would be deferred to a separate window of thirty to sixty days after any initial agreement.
Still, the nuclear question refuses to recede. Trump announced a potential concession on Monday: Iran could destroy its highly enriched uranium stockpile inside the country, under international supervision — movement on the hardest issue in every round of talks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in India, acknowledged the strikes but insisted a deal remained possible, saying the strait would open "one way or another."
Iran has attached its own condition: any agreement must include a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli forces continue striking Hezbollah despite a mid-April truce. Netanyahu vowed to intensify those strikes, linking a separate conflict to an already intricate negotiation. Both sides are performing restraint while applying pressure — Centcom called Tuesday's attacks "defensive," Trump posted that talks were going "nicely" while warning of fresh strikes if they failed. The second major military action during the ceasefire underscores just how easily this fragile arrangement could collapse.
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran, now seven weeks old, showed its fragility on Tuesday when American forces struck Iranian targets in the south. The strikes hit missile launch sites and boats that US Central Command said were attempting to lay mines in waters near Bandar Abbas, a military port city on the Strait of Hormuz. At least four Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops were killed in the attacks on the vessels, according to reporting from Tabnak, a news outlet with ties to former Guard leadership. Iranian state television reported explosions around the port city, though state media later insisted the situation remained under control and posed no threat to residents.
The timing was deliberate and pointed. Even as the strikes were being carried out, Iranian negotiators were arriving in Qatar to resume talks with American officials. The delegation included Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament, alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati. The presence of the central bank chief signaled where Tehran's immediate priorities lay: not nuclear weapons, but money. Billions of dollars in Iranian assets sit frozen in banks outside the country, held primarily in Qatar, and unfreezing those funds has become central to any agreement.
The emerging deal under negotiation bears little resemblance to the 2015 nuclear accord that Trump abandoned in 2017. Instead, it focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows. For Trump, facing midterm elections and voter anger over rising energy costs, getting that strait open again has become urgent. The memorandum being discussed would see Iran restore commercial shipping through the passage, but nuclear issues would be deferred—pushed into a separate negotiation window of thirty to sixty days after any initial agreement.
Yet the nuclear question refuses to disappear. Trump has made preventing Iranian development of nuclear weapons his stated war aim, and he faces pressure from Republican loyalists who view any deal resembling Obama's 2015 agreement as capitulation. On Monday, Trump announced a potential breakthrough: Iran could destroy its stockpile of highly enriched uranium inside the country, under supervision by an international nuclear agency. It was framed as a major concession from the American side, a signal that negotiations, which had slowed after weekend diplomatic activity, might be moving again.
The uranium stockpile has been the hardest knot to untie in every round of talks. Iran has previously offered to dilute its enriched uranium, reducing its weapons-grade purity, but refused to allow the material to be transferred to the United States or Russia. Trump's proposal to allow destruction on Iranian soil represented movement on that front. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in India on Tuesday, acknowledged the latest strikes but insisted a deal remained possible. "The strait of Hormuz will open one way or another," he told reporters, adding that talks were continuing in Qatar over specific language in the initial document.
Iran, for its part, has attached a condition of its own: any agreement must include a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli forces continue striking the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia despite a truce agreed to in mid-April. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he would intensify those strikes, characterizing them as defensive responses. The demand links the Strait of Hormuz to a separate conflict, complicating an already intricate negotiation.
Both sides are playing a careful game of restraint and pressure. Centcom stressed that Tuesday's strikes did not signal the end of the ceasefire, characterizing them as defensive actions taken while "using restraint." Trump, posting on Truth Social, said talks were going "nicely" but warned of fresh attacks if negotiations failed. "It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all," he wrote. Iran's state news agency echoed the measured tone, insisting everything remained under control. Yet the strikes themselves—the second major attack during the seven-week pause—suggest how fragile the arrangement remains, and how easily either side could tip it toward renewed conflict.
Notable Quotes
The strait of Hormuz will open one way or another— Secretary of State Marco Rubio
It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all— President Trump, on Truth Social
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why strike now, in the middle of negotiations? It seems to undermine the whole point of talking.
Both sides are testing the ceasefire's limits. The US says those boats were laying mines—a direct threat. But yes, the timing sends a message: we're not waiting passively while you prepare.
And Iran's response? They're sending negotiators to Qatar at the same time.
Exactly. They're signaling that one strike won't derail talks. The central bank governor being there tells you what they really want—access to their frozen money, not a nuclear showdown right now.
So the nuclear issue is being pushed aside?
Not aside. Deferred. Thirty to sixty days after any initial deal. Trump needs the Strait of Hormuz open before midterms. Iran needs its assets unfrozen. The uranium question is the harder problem, so they're buying time.
But Trump faces pressure from his own party about giving Iran too much.
He does. That's why Monday's announcement about destroying uranium inside Iran matters—it's him showing he's not just handing them a win. It's a concession, but one that looks tough domestically.
And Netanyahu's intensifying strikes in Lebanon—how does that fit?
Iran won't sign anything without a Lebanon ceasefire included. So now you have three separate conflicts all tangled together: the US-Iran standoff, the Israeli-Hezbollah war, and the question of who controls the strait. One thread pulls on all the others.