They came back to the table and said, 'We screwed up. We made a mistake.'
In the days following the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader, the United States and Iran find themselves suspended between private conciliation and public defiance — a familiar human tension between what leaders say to save face and what they whisper to prevent catastrophe. The Trump administration has set a Saturday deadline for Tehran to publicly renounce attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping, while Iranian officials privately admit error even as their public voices call negotiation itself an act of treason. The world watches a narrow waterway that carries the weight of global commerce, wondering whether the machinery of diplomacy can outpace the machinery of war.
- The ceasefire is officially dead — Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked three commercial vessels, the U.S. responded with two days of strikes, and now a Saturday ultimatum hangs over Tehran like a storm cloud.
- Iran's leadership is speaking in two voices at once: privately telling U.S. advisers 'we made a mistake, let's keep talking,' while publicly declaring that anyone seeking peace with America is a traitor.
- Assassination threats against Trump have sharpened into something concrete — an Iranian cleric called for drone or missile strikes on the president, days after Israeli intelligence warned of a new Iranian plot against him.
- The diplomatic machinery is running at full speed — Oman, Qatar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia are all in motion, with technical talks expected Saturday in Muscat even as the deadline clock ticks down.
- Iran's grip on global energy markets may be loosening — nearly 2,600 ships have transited the Strait since April, a U.S.-guided southern corridor remains open, and growing worldwide oil production is eroding Tehran's leverage.
The funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader concluded early Friday at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, closing days of ceremony that had wound through Iraq and Iran. His death had come during the opening phase of the latest U.S.-Iran conflict, and even as the burial concluded, the Trump administration was racing to prevent the war from reigniting.
The White House issued an ultimatum: by Saturday, Tehran must publicly commit to ending attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping, acknowledge the waterway's openness to all vessels, and renounce any attempt to impose tolls. The consequences of refusal, according to U.S. officials, would be severe. The deadline coincided with a planned meeting in Muscat between Iran's Foreign Minister and Oman's top diplomat — a sign that regional mediators were working frantically to revive nuclear negotiations.
The urgency was real. Two days of retaliatory U.S. strikes had just concluded after Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked three commercial vessels. Yet privately, Iranian officials had told Trump administration advisers they had made a mistake and wanted to keep talking. The White House directed Vice President Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Rubio, and Jared Kushner to continue negotiations, with technical talks expected in Oman on Saturday.
Publicly, Tehran's posture was something else entirely. Ali Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder, declared that negotiation with the United States meant war, and called anyone seeking peace with America a traitor. Iran's top negotiator and Parliament Speaker echoed the defiance, claiming he had told the U.S. Vice President directly: 'we have absolutely no trust in you.'
The threats against Trump grew sharper. An Iranian cleric publicly called for drone or missile strikes on the president in retaliation for Khamenei's death — one day after Israeli intelligence reportedly shared details of a new Iranian assassination plot with U.S. officials. Trump himself told reporters at the NATO summit that he was 'No. 1 on the kill list for Iran,' adding with characteristic dark humor that he preferred being number one on TikTok.
The economic dimension was shifting. Iran's shipping attacks had pushed oil prices higher, but experts suggested Tehran's leverage over global energy markets was eroding. The U.S. had guided over 800 commercial vessels through the Strait since May, and a southern corridor route remained open. On Thursday alone, 22 ships crossed — fewer than June's average but far more than during the conflict's peak.
Qatari negotiators had traveled to Iran in coordination with Washington. A four-way call involving Iran, Pakistan, the U.S., and Qatar was expected soon. Yet the gap between private acknowledgment and public defiance remained vast — Iran had even created a new body claiming authority over all Strait navigation, a claim the UN's International Maritime Organization urged its 176 member states to reject.
As Saturday approached, the question was whether private talks could produce a public commitment from Tehran — or whether the cycle of escalation would simply continue. Israel was signaling readiness for a third strike. The ceasefire, officially declared over, hung in the balance.
The funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei concluded early Friday morning at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, marking the end of several days of ceremonies that had wound through Iraq and Iran. His death came during the opening phase of the latest U.S.-Iran conflict, which had erupted in late February with American and Israeli strikes. Now, as the body was laid to rest, the Trump administration was moving swiftly to prevent the conflict from reigniting.
On Friday, the White House issued Iran an ultimatum: by Saturday, Tehran must publicly commit to ending attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, acknowledge that the waterway remains open to all vessels, and renounce any attempt to impose tolls on passing ships. If Iran refused, according to three U.S. officials who spoke to Axios, the consequences would be severe, though unspecified. One official told the news outlet bluntly: "it is not gonna be a great day for them." The deadline coincided with a planned meeting in Muscat between Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi—a sign that regional mediators were working frantically to ease tensions and revive nuclear negotiations.
The urgency reflected a fragile situation. Two days of retaliatory strikes had just concluded, triggered when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration had declared the ceasefire officially over in response. Yet privately, according to CBS News citing senior U.S. officials, Iranian officials had told Trump administration advisers that they had made a mistake and wanted to continue talking. "They came back to the table and said, 'We screwed up. We made a mistake. Let's keep talking,'" one official said. The White House had directed Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Jared Kushner to continue negotiations, with technical-level talks expected in Oman on Saturday.
But the public posture from Tehran's leadership told a different story. Ali Khomeini, grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, declared Friday that any negotiations with the United States should not be viewed as a path to peace. "Our identity is non-compromise with arrogance," he said, according to Iran International English. "Negotiation means war; war has different forms." He went further, calling anyone who sought peace with America a traitor, saying their "mouth is impure and unclean." Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's top negotiator and Speaker of Parliament, echoed the defiance, telling an Indonesian official that the war "will never end with Iran's surrender." He claimed to have told the U.S. Vice President directly: "we have absolutely no trust in you."
Meanwhile, the assassination threats against Trump intensified. An Iranian cleric in southwestern Iran publicly called for someone with missiles or drones to target the president in retaliation for Khamenei's death. The comments came one day after The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli intelligence had shared information with U.S. officials indicating Iran was developing a new plot to kill Trump. The president himself had been unusually candid about the threat, telling reporters at the NATO summit that he was "No. 1 on the kill list for Iran," adding with dark humor that he preferred being number one on TikTok. In February 2025, Trump had told Fox News that he had left instructions: if Iran assassinated him, the country would be "obliterated." Signs at Khamenei's funeral procession had read, "We Will Kill Trump."
The economic stakes were rising. Iran's attacks on shipping had sent Brent crude oil and local gas prices higher. Yet experts suggested Iran's leverage over global energy markets might be weakening. Growing oil production worldwide, alternative export routes, and shifting shipping patterns indicated that Tehran's ability to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz as economic leverage was eroding, even if it could still trigger short-term price shocks. The U.S. had guided 825 commercial vessels through the Strait since May, and nearly 2,600 ships had transited since the initial ceasefire on April 8. A U.S.-maintained southern corridor route, shifted away from the center of the strait toward Oman's coast, remained open. On Thursday alone, 22 vessels had crossed—fewer than the June average of 50 but more than the daily average during the conflict's height in April and May.
The diplomatic machinery was in overdrive. Qatari negotiators had traveled to Iran in coordination with the U.S. to de-escalate tensions. A four-way call involving Iran, Pakistan, the United States, and Qatar was expected soon. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had spoken with Trump about protecting freedom of navigation and maritime security. Yet the gap between private acknowledgment and public posture remained vast. Iran's UN ambassador claimed Tehran bore sole responsibility for the Strait's navigation and demining operations—a claim contradicted by repeated U.S. and international assertions. Iran had even created a new body called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, claiming no vessel could pass without a valid permit. The UN's International Maritime Organization had urged its 176 member states to reject Iran's sovereignty claims over the waterway.
As Saturday approached, the question was whether private talks would yield a public commitment from Tehran—or whether the cycle of escalation would continue. The Trump administration had made clear that military and economic measures awaited any Iranian resumption of hostile actions. Israel, meanwhile, was signaling readiness for a third strike. The ceasefire, officially declared over, hung in the balance.
Citações Notáveis
They came back to the table and said, 'We screwed up. We made a mistake. Let's keep talking.'— U.S. official to CBS News, describing private Iranian communications
Our identity is non-compromise with arrogance. Negotiation means war; war has different forms.— Ali Khomeini, grandson of Islamic Republic founder
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the Trump administration think a Saturday deadline will work when Iran's own leaders are publicly rejecting any compromise?
Because there's a gap between what Iran's hardliners say for domestic consumption and what officials are saying behind closed doors. Privately, they admitted the shipping attacks were a mistake. The deadline is designed to force them to choose: make a public commitment and save face, or refuse and trigger consequences they know will be severe.
But if their own grandson is calling negotiators traitors, how does Iran's government make that public commitment without looking weak?
That's the trap they're in. They need the talks to continue—their economy is under pressure, sanctions are tightening—but their ideological base demands absolute defiance. A public statement about the Strait could be framed as a clarification rather than surrender, but it's a narrow path.
What about the assassination threats? Does that change the calculation?
It complicates everything. The threats are real enough that Israeli intelligence is sharing new plots with the U.S. But they also serve a purpose for Iran's hardliners—they rally the base, they show strength. Trump's response has been to say he's prepared to obliterate Iran if anything happens to him. It's a deterrent, but it also raises the stakes on both sides.
Is Iran actually losing its ability to control the Strait, or is that wishful thinking?
The data suggests it's real. Shipping patterns have shifted, alternative routes exist, global oil production is recovering. Iran can still cause disruption—those recent attacks spiked oil prices—but the leverage it had even a few months ago is diminishing. That's why the deadline matters. If Iran can't use the Strait as a weapon, its negotiating position weakens further.
So what happens if they refuse the Saturday deadline?
The administration has promised unspecified consequences. That could mean more strikes, more sanctions targeting regime elites' financial networks, or both. But it also risks pushing Iran back toward the hardliners who are already calling negotiations treason. The real question is whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to make a binding public commitment, or whether the system itself prevents it.